The PoliticalPulse

Australia Federal Election Opinion Polls: Polls indicate a tight race between Labor and the Coalition, with both parties in a neck-and-neck battle.

• Australia Federal Election Primary Opinion Polls(Average, Last 3 polls):LNP: 38.8, ALP: 30.3, GRN: 13
• TPP Votes 2025(Average, Last 3 polls): LNP: 49.3%, ALP: 50.6%
• Google Trends, 7 days (Partywise): LNP: 31.3%, ALP: 39.3%, GRN: 29.2%
• Google Trend, 7 days (Leadership): Albanese: 77.4%, Dutton: 22.5%

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Australians will vote to elect the 48th Parliament of Australia on 27th September 2025. The stakes are high with 151 electorates across the country, each electing one representative to the House of Representatives, and a proportional representation system for the Senate. After being in power for 9 years, the Liberal/National coalition was voted out in 2022 and the Labour Party under the leadership of Anthony Albanese went on to form their government.

Anthony Albanese and his Labor government will be seeking re-election to a second term in office. He will be up against the Liberal/National Coalition under the new leadership of Peter Dutton. Here are the top headlines for the Australian Federal election:

• Polling Data: The Liberal/National Coalition is ahead of the Labour Party in the Primary Votes poll but the two parties are equally balanced when it comes to two-party preferred votes.

• Public Opinion and Favorability: Albanese and the Labor Party have seen a significant drop in public support since assuming office. As Prime Minister, Albanese now holds a net approval rating of -8.0%, reflecting the first instance where disapproval has outpaced approval during his term. This change is driven by growing concerns over the cost of living, housing affordability, and climate change. Despite these challenges, opposition leader Peter Dutton has not made any headway, with neither leader gaining a notable advantage in public opinion.
• Election Dynamics: The election remains highly polarized, with close races expected between the Labour Party and the Liberal/National coalition.

Australia Federal Elections Latest Developments

Queensland’s election: Why it is important for both Albanese and Dutton?

Queenslanders will head to the polls on October 26, marking a crucial moment for both Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton. A key indicator of the state’s can be found in “Rocky,” a Labor stronghold that has previously withstood tough times. However, recent opinion polls reveal that Labor is facing significant challenges in over a dozen seats across central and northern Queensland, with only 15% of people outside Southeast Queensland believing the Miles government deserves re-election. This growing discontent signals an uphill battle for Labor, which has held power in Queensland for nearly three decades.

For Albanese, the election results will provide critical insights for campaigning during the ongoing cost-of-living crisis, informing strategies that resonate with voters feeling the pinch. The ability to address and effectively communicate solutions to these pressing issues will be essential for maintaining support in a state that has traditionally leaned towards Labor. Meanwhile, for Dutton, a solid performance in Queensland is essential for bolstering his leadership and demonstrating that the Liberal Party can regain support in a region where it has lost ground in recent years.

Success for Dutton would not only enhance his credibility but also help him frame a compelling narrative leading into the upcoming federal election. A strong showing in Queensland could reinforce the Liberal Party’s position and showcase a path forward for the party in the federal election.

Australia Federal Election Observation and Insights

The upcoming Australian Federal election is expected to be a closely fought battle between the Labour Party led by Anthony Albanese and the Liberal/National Coalition under the leadership of Peter Dutton. The polls give the coalition a 8 points lead over the Labour Party in the Primary votes but in the Two Party Preferred votes, both Labour and the Coalition are equally tied.

• The latest Roy Morgan poll shows the Australian Labor Party (ALP) regaining momentum, with a 52% two-party preferred vote, up 2% from the previous week. This matches the ALP’s performance in the May 2022 election, where it secured a slim majority.
• The increase in ALP support is driven by a 2% rise in the party’s primary vote to 32%, while the Coalition’s support dropped to 36.5%.
• Some important observations after comparing the latest Essential Poll data vs. the 2022 election results:
  • Among younger voters (18-34), Labor has increased its lead over the Coalition by 10 points, while the Greens have gained 9 points.
  • Among middle-aged voters, Labor’s lead has narrowed by 1 point, with the Coalition slightly gaining ground, while the Greens have lost 4 points.
  • Among older voters (55+), the Coalition’s lead over Labor has expanded by 8 points.
  • Among men, Labor has closed the gap, reducing the Coalition’s lead by 4 points.
  • Among women, the Coalition’s lead has widened by 5 points, while the Greens have gained 2 points, with Labor losing support to the Greens.

Australia Federal Election Opinion Polls 2025 (Primary Votes)

The latest polling data from three key surveys conducted between October 11 to 20 consistently shows the Liberal National Party (LNP) leading the Australian Labor Party (ALP) and the Greens (GRN). The LNP’s support of 41%, reflecting a strong and stable voter base.

In contrast, the ALP lags behind, with support ranging from 30% to 31%, indicating a consistent yet significant gap. The Greens maintain support between 12% and 14%. The LNP’s consistent lead across all polls suggests they hold a dominant position among voters, while the ALP struggles to close the gap.

Australia Federal Election Opinion Polls: TPP Votes 2025

WA Liberals Aim for a Comeback in 2025 Elections

The WA Liberal Party, having been battered in recent elections, is now positioning itself for a potential revival in the upcoming state and federal elections. With Western Australia emerging as a key battleground, both state leader Libby Mettam and federal leader Peter Dutton are emphasizing policies aimed at addressing local concerns. Dutton’s $5 billion housing plan, designed to fast-track suburban developments, along with his promises to protect the state’s GST deal and support the mining sector, highlights the Coalition’s focus on economic growth. Meanwhile, Mettam’s priorities, including reforms to the healthcare system, addressing cost-of-living pressures, and increasing housing availability, reflect the party’s effort to resonate with voters facing everyday challenges.

Economic Perfromance: Albanese Vs Morrison

Australia Federal Election Opinion Polls 2025: Google Trends

• Liberal Party of Australia: 31.3% (2022: 29%)
• Australian Labor Party: 39.3% (2022: 59%)
• Australian Greens: 29.2% (2020: 12%)

** In the past seven days, the search volume for the Australian Labor Party (ALP) has notably increased compared to that of the Liberal National Party (LNP) and the Greens (GRN).**

Australia Federal Election Opinion Polls 2025: Leadership

**In the past seven days, search volume for Anthony Albanese has increased compared to that of Dutton**

What Happened in the Last Australian Federal Election?

The 2022 Australian federal election, held in May 2022, aimed to elect members of the 47th Parliament of Australia. The election determined all 151 seats in the House of Representatives and 40 of the 76 seats in the Senate. The incumbent Liberal/National Coalition government, led by Prime Minister Scott Morrison, pursued a fourth consecutive term but was defeated by the opposition Labor Party, led by Anthony Albanese.

The Australian Labor Party secured a majority government for the first time since 2007, winning 77 seats in the House of Representatives. The Coalition suffered significant losses, capturing only 58 seats—their lowest number in the House since 1946. Other parties and independents collectively won 16 seats.

Australia Election Procedure

In Australian federal elections, preferential voting is used for the House of Representatives. Voters complete their ballot papers by ranking candidates in order of preference. This system allows voters to elect a representative to speak on behalf of their electorate in the House of Representatives.

Currently, Australia is divided into 151 electorates, each with a roughly equal number of voters. Each electorate elects one representative, resulting in a total of 151 members in the House of Representatives. The party or coalition with the majority of these seats forms the government, and its leader becomes the Prime Minister.

The procedure for an Australian federal election includes the following steps:

Federal elections are held every three years for the House of Representatives and every six years for the Senate. The Prime Minister may advise the Governor-General to dissolve the House of Representatives and call a general election, often to seek a new mandate or resolve parliamentary deadlock. The Governor-General issues writs for the election, directing the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) to conduct the election.

Candidates, including those from political parties and independents, must be nominated to stand for election. Nominees must meet eligibility criteria such as being at least 18 years old, an Australian citizen, and not disqualified by legal constraints.

Candidates and parties campaign to promote their policies and gain voter support through various means, including debates, advertisements, and public events. Voters cast their ballots at polling stations. The preferential voting system requires voters to rank candidates in order of preference.

Votes are counted after the polls close, including pre-poll and postal votes. The counting determines the winners for each electorate. Once counting is complete and any necessary recounts are done, the AEC declares the official results. Representatives are elected based on the preferential voting system. The party or coalition with a majority of seats in the House of Representatives forms the government. The leader of this party or coalition becomes the Prime Minister.