**Recent data from the Pennsylvania presidential election polls for 2024 shows a tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.**
** Pennsylvania Summary **
The upcoming US Presidential election is likely to be decided by the outcomes in six pivotal swing states: Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin. Together, these states account for roughly 240 million eligible voters in this year’s election.
The battle for the White House is intensifying as both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris increase their campaigns. Among key states, Pennsylvania stands out as a crucial battleground in the upcoming election. Its role as a swing state, combined with its diverse demographics, economic significance, and historical importance, makes it difficult to predict the outcome until the final vote is counted. Here are the Top headlines
- Current Polls in Pennsylvania: In Pennsylvania, Trump leads with 48%, while Harris remains at 46%. Additionally, Trump is ahead in Google search volume.
- Accurate Predictor of the Election, Allan Lichtman’s Prediction: The probability of Kamala Harris winning the upcoming US election as per Lichtman is over 60%.
- Betting and Odds: The latest odds from Polymarket show Donald Trump with a 57% chance of winning in Pennsylvania, compared to 43% for Kamala Harris.
Pennsylvania Election Latest Developments
- Oct 22nd: McDonald’s Corp. has officially declared its neutrality in the upcoming presidential election following former President Donald Trump’s recent visit to a McDonald’s in Pennsylvania. In an internal communication, the company reaffirmed that it does not endorse any candidates, stating, “We are not red or blue, we are golden.” This announcement coincided with Trump’s visit, which attracted significant attention as he playfully served fries and engaged with customers, even making a lighthearted jab at Vice President Kamala Harris regarding their respective fast-food work experiences.
Pennsylvania Election Observation and Insights
Why Kamala Harris Is Favorite to Win Pennsylvania?
- As the Democratic National Convention approaches in Chicago, Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate, Gov. Tim Walz, are intensifying their campaign efforts in Pennsylvania, a crucial swing state. They have been on a bus tour, rallying volunteers and expressing gratitude in Pittsburgh and Rochester.
- Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump, who narrowly won Pennsylvania in 2016 but lost it in 2020, is also concentrating on the state. Accompanied by Senator JD Vance, Trump is targeting key areas with strong rhetoric, including a recent visit to Wilkes-Barre where he criticized Democratic policies and illegal immigration.
Polls for the presidential election in Pennsylvania indicate a close fight between Harris and Trump. Here is an in-depth observation of the Pennsylvania election:
- The recent Pennsylvania survey from Quantus Insights shows Donald Trump maintaining a two-point lead over Kamala Harris.
- Harris has increased the Democratic lead among women, holding a 5-point advantage over Trump, compared to Biden’s 13-point lead in 2020.
- Trump’s lead over Harris among men has decreased by 3 points compared to his lead over Biden in 2020, with Trump now holding a 2-point advantage.
- Support among younger voters has changed, with Harris now leading Trump by 19 points, a drop from Biden’s 23-point advantage in 2020.
- Among middle-aged voters, Harris holds a 3-point advantage over Trump, up from Biden’s 1.5-point lead in 2020.
- Trump’s lead among voters aged 65+ has decreased slightly by 1 point, now holding a 3-point advantage over Harris, compared to his 7-point lead over Biden in 2020.
- Trump appeals to white voters with a 15-point advantage over Harris, compared to Biden’s performance among this demographic in 2020. Meanwhile, Harris enjoys overwhelming support from Black voters, leading Trump by 69 points.
- Economically, 58% of voters prioritize economic issues, where Trump leads Harris by 9 points. He also holds a 16-point advantage on immigration compared to Harris.
- Conversely, Harris leads on social issues, particularly abortion rights, with a 17-point advantage over Trump.
- Trump is viewed “very favorably” by 34% and “very unfavorably” by 42%, while Harris is viewed “very favorably” by 35% and “very unfavorably” by 43%.
Overall considering the polls and the voting intention data, it is advantageous for Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania.
Latest Presidential Polls In Pennsylvania
Who Will Win Pennsylvania: Harris or Trump?
The race for Pennsylvania is becoming interesting as both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump heavily invest in advertising and campaigning. With a combined spending of approximately $280 million on ads, polls show a tight contest, labeling Pennsylvania as a toss-up. This is why both candidates are prioritizing their outreach efforts in the state.
Most voters in Pennsylvania focus on economic issues, closely followed by abortion rights. Many voters, including independents, are particularly concerned about these topics when determining their support. Trump continues to resonate with white, blue-collar voters without college degrees, who make up a substantial portion of the electorate in Pennsylvania. In contrast, Harris is striving to secure the backing of Black and Latino voters, especially in urban centers like Philadelphia, where these demographics are influential.
Both candidates have ramped up their visibility, with Harris engaging in tough interviews to position herself as a credible alternative for dissatisfied Republicans, while Trump emphasizes his stance on immigration and border control. Historically, Pennsylvania has been a bellwether state, having voted for the winning candidate since 2008, although it swung from Trump in 2016 to Biden in 2020.
Pennsylvania President Polls 2024: Google Trends
7 days
- Kamala Harris: 34.5% (2020: Joe Biden: 35%)
- Donald Trump: 65.4% (2020: 65%)
**The search volume for Donald Trump has increased in the past 7 days compared to Kamala Harris.**
Polling on Economic Issues in Pennsylvania
- Economic Priorities: 40% of Pennsylvania voters prioritize the economy as their top issue in the 2024 election, according to recent polling data.
- Protecting Democracy: About 25% of voters emphasize protecting democracy as a critical concern.
- Immigration and Abortion Rights: Both immigration and abortion rights each receive significant attention, with over 10% of voter focus on each issue.
- Security and Governance: Issues like crime, immigration, and threats to democracy each garner around 11% of voter attention, highlighting concerns about security and effective governance.
- Reflecting the economic emphasis, 36% of Pennsylvania voters cite the economy as their primary concern, according to Emerson College Polling and The Hill.
- Health care, education, housing affordability, and abortion access are also important issues for Pennsylvania voters, rounding out the diverse set of factors influencing their electoral decisions.
Pennsylvania’s Historical Role As A Swing State
- Electoral Significance: Pennsylvania holds 19 crucial electoral votes in the 2024 presidential election. In 2019, Joe Biden narrowly won the state with a margin of over 1%, securing victories in 12 counties while losing 55 to Donald Trump.
- County Dynamics: Key counties such as Philadelphia, Delaware, Montgomery, and Allegheny played pivotal roles in Biden’s victory. Urban areas in Pennsylvania generally lean Democratic, while rural counties typically support Republicans.
- Suburban Influence: Suburban voters, especially women and independents, are expected to play a decisive role. Their preferences on key issues like the economy, healthcare, and climate change will likely sway the outcome.
- Pennsylvania’s history as a swing state indicates its ability to swing either way in national elections, underscoring its critical importance as a battleground state in 2024.
2024 Pennsylvania Presidential election Polls: Demography
Pennsylvania, the fifth most populous state in the United States, has a diverse population of over 12.8 million people. The state’s mix of urban, suburban, and rural areas is anchored by cities like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Whites make up 81% of the population, followed by African Americans (12%), Hispanic and Latino Americans (8%), and other minority groups. With a median age of 41, Pennsylvania’s population is aging.
Pennsylvania Presidential Election History
In the 2020 US presidential election, Pennsylvania emerged as a crucial battleground state, with Joe Biden ultimately prevailing by a narrow margin of 1.17% over former President Donald Trump. Biden captured Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes with 50.01% of the popular vote, amounting to 3,458,229 votes, while Trump received 48.84% and 3,377,674 votes.
Biden’s decisive advantage in Democratic strongholds, particularly Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, was instrumental in closing the margin as votes from these key urban areas were tallied. Conversely, Trump garnered substantial support in rural and suburban regions but could not surpass Biden’s lead in the major cities.
| Democratic Party | Republican Party | |
| 2020 | 50% | 48.8% |
| 2016 | 47.5% | 48.2% |
| 2012 | 52% | 46.6% |
| 2008 | 54.5% | 44.2% |
| 2004 | 50.9% | 48.4% |
| 2000 | 50.6% | 46.4% |
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