Latest Ontario Polls 2021 and Google Search Data: Liberals at 38.1%, Tories at 31.9%, NDP at 20.4%

Track the 2022 Ontario Polls here

Latest Ontario Polls 2021 show the Liberals ahead by 6.2%. The Liberals are at 38.1%, Tories at 31.9% and NDP at 20.4%

Sep, 18, 2021, 5 Pollsters

Canada Election: How this Ontario region’s “vote switchers” could have influence on the results

Ontario Polls 2021: Polling Data, Data reported on Sep 18th

PollsterPolling DatesLiberalsConservativesNDP
AverageSep 17th38.1%31.9%20.4%
Angus ReidSep 17th39%33%20%
LegerSep 17th38%35%18%
Abacus DataSep 17th40%33%20%
Mainstreet ResearchSep 17th34.6%32.3%22%
EKOSSep 17th39%26%22%
Results 2019201941.6%33.1%16.8%

Canada 2021 province pollsRange

NDP -18-22% (4%)

Liberals – 35-39% (4%)

Conservatives – 26-35% (9%)

Canada Federal Election Polls and News: Latest Projection

Ontario Polls 2021: Seat Forecast, Sep 18th

Source: Mainstreet


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Ontario Polls 2021: Google Search Data

On Google search however, the patterns are different. The biggest gainer appears to be the PPC with the NDP losing significantly as well

Google Search Data, shift over 2019 election


Ontario Polls 2021: Popular Tweets

Originally tweeted by Ben (@ponekeben) on September 19, 2021.

Where it gets interesting is breaking down support by region. In Atlantic CA & vote rich Ontario, LIB sit 40%~, Quebec 30%~ & dip all the way down to the teens in the conservative prairies.

CON on the other hand have much more concentrated support in Alberta + Praries of 40%+ with 30%~ in Ontario/BC.

What this effectively means is with FPP, CON can beat LIB in the popular vote (per 2019) and still win far less seats overall. CON support has improved from 2019 but without Ontario, it’s extremely hard for them to plot a path to victory.

4) CON vote in Ontario. If polls are off and CON are competitive in greater Toronto then almost all my reckons go out the window. Given poll consistency and disastrous CON premiership I’m confident we’re not going to see much change here.

Originally tweeted by Joan (@joandotca) on September 19, 2021.

Not sure, but this movemt seems to be in high gear, so maybe they’ll mask up for this occasion. I suspect the polls have underestimated the impact the PPC will have on this election. Just observing, not in agreemt w/ them. But I’m in SW Ont and am seeing quite a lot of PPC signs.

Originally tweeted by Frank Graves (@VoiceOfFranky) on September 19, 2021.

The LPC lead in Ontario is so large that I am not even going to report it (will confirm tomorrow ). I am not sure there are more than a handful of safe CPC seats in Ontario (abridged)

Originally tweeted by 🇨🇦Coach Guzzo🇮🇹 (@CoachGuzzo) on September 18, 2021.

Where’s the Premier? No leadership. No direction. No accountability. No effort. Nothing. That is why @fordnation will lose the next provincial election by a landslide. @StevenDelDuca do everything opposite of this guy & Ontario will thrive economically & health wise.

Originally tweeted by Richard Southern (@richard680news) on September 17, 2021.

NEW – Deputy Premier Christine Elliott is asked by our @QPCamera where Premier Ford is. Ford has held just one news conference in 7 weeks.

“Premier Ford has been around. Premier Ford is working every day to try and help limit the effects of COVID-19” “Premier Ford is very busy”

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Latest Ontario Polls 2021 and Google Search Data: Liberals at 39.3%, Tories at 31.7%, NDP at 19.5%

Read: 2022 Ontario Polls

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