Will Narendra Modi return as Prime Minister of India in 2019?

February 10, 2019

Will Narendra Modi return as the prime Minister?

The Crowd has managed to perform better than most exit pollsters in 2018. They have performed poorly in Chhattisgarh, Telangana and really well in Rajasthan. So one cannot ignore the crowd. The Crowd rule is simple

The Crowd has on an average reported an error of 18% for the winner (Axis the best is at 14%)

Second, given the question format (Multiple Choice) we will have higher cut-offs for BJP and lower cut-offs for Opposition. What we mean is, given the over representation of BJP supporters, we will believe a hypothesis is strong only if it crosses 60% for BJP and 40% for Opposition

With this in mind, let us look at the current predictions

Uttar Pradesh

BJP+ – Nearly 60% believe it will win more than 37 Seats (Predict Here)

SP – Nearly 40% believe it will win more than 19 Seats (Predict here)

BSP – Nearly 40% believe it will win more than 15 Seats (Predict here)

Maharashtra

BJP – Nearly 60% believe that BJP will win more than 22 Seats on its own (Predict here)

INC-NCP – More than 45% believe that the alliance will win more than 21 Seats (Predict here)

Bengal

BJP – More than 70% believe that BJP will win more than 6 Seats in Bengal in 2019 (Predict here)

Bihar

BJP+ – More than 60% believe it will win more than 26 Seats (Predict Here)

Madhya Pradesh

BJP – More than 67% believe that the BJP will win more than 19 Seats in 2019 (Predict Here)

Congress – 64% believe that the Congress will win more than 9 Seats in 2019 (Predict Here)

Karnataka

BJP – 68% believe the BJP will win more than 15 Seats in 2019 (Predict here)

Congress – 67% believe the Congress will win more than 8 seats in 2019 (Predict here)

Gujarat

BJP – 66% believe that the BJP will win more than 18 Seats in 2019 (Predict here)

Rajasthan

BJP – 70% believe that the BJP will win more than 11 Seats in 2019 (Predict here)

Odisha

BJP – 61% believe that the BJP will win more than 9 Seats in 2019 (Predict here)

North East

BJP – 63% believe that the BJP will win more than 16 Seats in 2019 (Predict here)

Delhi+Haryana+Punjab

Delhi

BJP – 66% believe BJP will win 5 seats or more (Predict here)

Total of above for BJP = 184 Seats/ 460 Seats (assuming zero in TN and Andhra). This is the bare Minimum in these States

Pending –

Himachal, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Goa. BJP won 40 Seats here

Telangana, Punjab, J&K, Kerala, Union Territories, BJP won 11 Seats here

We will be launching predictions for these States over the next one week. Even assuming an 80% retention rate in these smaller States, BJP is staring at a base level range of about 220-240 Seats. This tells us why Amit Shah is very open to compromises with allies. It is being pragmatic in a difficult environment. A difficult election ahead for BJP but can the Opposition offer voters something better than Farm Loan waiver and many platitudes to win 2019?

At 220-240 seats, it is clear that Narendra Modi can ruffle up a majority and return to power.