Another severe lockdown in July in some districts?

The statistical probability of running into someone with COVID-19 today is 100-300 times higher than on March 25th. With Corona restrictions being removed across States, the daily cases of Corona is going up at a rapid pace. All India level is likely to touch 10000 per day in the next 3-4 days. Let us now look at some severely affected city/city districts

  1. Delhi: 1330 cases added just yesterday
  2. Mumbai: 1149 cases added yesterday
  3. Chennai: 1116 cases added yesterday
  4. Thane: 457 cases added yesterday
  5. Ahmedabad: 324 cases added yesterday
  6. Pune: 226 cases added yesterday
  7. Udupi: 204 cases added yesterday
  8. Gurugram: 153 cases added yesterday
  9. Hyderabad: 116 cases added yesterday
  10. Kolkata: 101 cases added yesterday

These 10 city cities/districts added 5226 out of the 9462 cases added yesterday. Over the next 25 days, at the current rate of growth (3.5%) and 14 day recovery cycle , these 10 districts will end up with almost the double the number of active cases that they are handling currently (Currently 69000, Projected 131000). Given the current panic in testing and hospital facilities in some of these cities (Mumbai, Delhi and Ahmedabad), the Government will have no choice but to call for another severe lockdown in July. This will be a repeat of Singapore which had to carry out a second lockdown in April.

However, if somehow after the initial surge, if the increase in cases can be restricted to less than 2% daily, these districts will be able to manage their healthcare system for a longer time and no severe lockdown will be needed until August.

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