Bihar Active Cases have Tripled in 10 days: Next Hotspot?

The situation is deteriorating in Bihar quickly

10 days ago, Bihar had 1500+ cases, yesterday the tally went upto 2700+

There are currently nearly 2000 active cases in Bihar. The big jump in cases is probably due to the 1.5 million migrants who returned back to the state using Shramik Trains. And unlike other States, Bihar’s cases are spread all over the State and not just Patna. This is worrisome as the healthcare capacity of Bihar is one of the worst in the country

Inspite of being one of the highest migrant returning States in the country, Bihar’s testing is quite low. Just 2600 tests a day (last one week). So far Bihar has completed around 65000 tests. One of the lowest given its population of more than 10 crores.

The one good news for Bihar is the low casualty rate. The death to recovery rate is 1.7%, one of the lowest in the country. This is primarily due to the younger demographic mix of the State.

If Bihar continues to increase at the current rate, it will have 10000 cases by the 10th of June. However, that assumes a worst case scenario. It is likely that as migrant inflow reduces, Bihar’s cases will not grow at the same pace. However, even at 5% daily, Bihar is likely to hit about 6000 by 10th. So anywhere between 6000 cases and 10000 cases is most likely by the 10th of June

Bihar is a high density State and should things go out of hand, the healthcare system cannot handle the increase. Govt of India and Govt of Bihar must prepare carefully to prevent such a situation.

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