COVID-19 Cases: Gujarat deteriorates most last week, Kerala Outperforms

Our last analysis on State level performance (10m+ States only) was on 6th of April. Between the 6th and the 11th, there has been some change in performance.

Please Note: Firstly, every Indian State is doing much better than any western country. While it appears we are adding cases much faster than most Asian countries, it should be noted that we also have 1350 million people in this country. So when we are being critical of States, it must be seen in the context of within India and should not seen as poor performance when compared with Global Standards. All our States are doing well!

Party-wise Performance

Since lot of conversations are around party performance. We start with that. Remember, we compare with States that have a similar per capita GDP.  

Let us look at all the BJP CM States

Karnataka: Karnataka was a top performer until the 6th of April and continues to remain so. With 3.5 cases per million population, it is on par with Uttarakhand (In the same per capita GDP bucket). Total case load (per million) has increased 1.42 times, Uttarakhand was better at 1.35 times but at a much lower base.

Uttarakhand: Uttarakhand was behind Gujarat last week. With the lowest increases in case load over the last 6 days. Uttarakhand has outperformed Gujarat and now on Par with Karnataka. Dare we say, better than Karnataka

Pic Sources: ANI Tweet

Gujarat: It has shown one of the worst increases in case load at 3.66 times (India average is 2 times). Not only that, If one looks at the States in the same per capita GDP bucket, it has slipped below both Punjab and Uttarakhand.

Haryana: Haryana has maintained momentum in line with the national average with cases per million remaining 2nd in its per capita GDP group. Steady performance

Madhya Pradesh: It has shown one of the worst increases in case load at 2.74 times (India average is 2 times). It had been struggling last week too within its per capita group and continues to do so.

Assam: Is one of the top performing Poor States with low case load and low increase in Case Load. Very Good Performance

Uttar Pradesh: Is one of the worst performing Poor States and continues to remain so. Only MP is worse than UP on Case load and in terms of increase only Bihar and MP have done worse.

So if one takes all the States with BJP ruled CMs (10m+ population)

Top Performers: Uttarakhand, Karnataka, Assam

Average Performers: Haryana, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh

Worst performers: Madhya Pradesh

If we include NDA states in the above list. Bihar can be added in the Top performers list and Tamil Nadu can be added in the average performers list. Now, let us look at the Opposition ruled States using the same above criteria. 

Top Performers: Punjab, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand

Average Performers: Odisha, Telangana, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Bengal

Worst performers: Delhi, Maharashtra, Rajasthan

Momentum (Qualification 100 cases) – Increase in cases over last week

Best Performing States: Kerala, Karnataka, Telangana

Worst Performing States: Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat

Overall it seems, some States have sustained high performance – Karnataka, Haryana as examples. Some have improved performance like Kerala, Uttarakhand, Telangana while most others have maintained average performances or gotten worse.

COVID Data is sourced from

Read all ouf analysis on covid-19 here 

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