Is India’s COVID data real?

  1. NDA ruled States are testing at nearly half the levels of Non-NDA States, they are also reporting half the levels of deaths.
  2. Just two NDA States have done more than 5000 tests per million
    • Goa and Tripura, Population=5 million.
    • Amongst Non-NDA States, 4 States have carried out more than 5000 tests per million, population = 207 million
  3. Ahmedabad Mirror reports that relatives of patients in Gujarat are running around for tests, sometimes test reports are coming after death of the patient. Not a surprise at all.
    • Between 15th and 21st May, Gujarat carried out 41444 tests, 22nd to 28th May, 31896 Tests.
  4. MP too is no different,
    • Between 15th and 21st May, MP carried out 35848 tests, 22nd to 28th May, 25574 Tests
  5. Unless Bihar’s healthcare and law enforcement system has suddenly become world class, 677 tests per million is woefully inadequate.
    • UP is at 1281 tests per million
    • Bengal at 1925 tests per million.
    • National Average is at nearly 3000 tests per million
  6. Telangana does not report test data and when it does report, it does about 200 to 500 tests a day. The Centre and BJP chased them for a few days and then let it go. Mamata on the other hand has just completed 10000 tests a day
  7. Today Maharashtra reported 8381 recovery in a single day. Assuming it takes 2 weeks for recovery, two weeks ago Maharashtra was adding 1500 cases a day. The only explanation for this surge is change in discharge rules. But number of deaths has not changed and those numbers will be released slowly.
  8. Cremation data from Delhi says actual deaths may be twice that of reported deaths.

We can keep going on State by State to point out more flaws in our data collection system. It is a black hole!

The Weak Link

The biggest weak link is what they call co-morbidity. The chances of death increase when patients have some other disease at that time. If checks and balances are weak, a COVID patient could be classified as death due to Diabetes or Cancer or Heart Disease etc. This is likely what States are managing to show low levels of deaths.


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