Chhattisgarh Opinion Poll 2023: Is Congress in Trouble?
Chhattisgarh Opinion Poll 2023: Polls predict the ruling Indian National Congress is set to return to power but Google search trends question these polls
The state of Chhattisgarh is set to elect its new assembly in two phases in November 2023. The first phase was conducted on the 7th of November while the second phase will be conducted on the 17th of November, 2023. In the 90-member Chhattisgarh assembly, the Indian National Congress has an upright majority. The state will witness the polls along with the states of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.
The Indian National Congress will be going into the poll defending their 5 years performance while Bharatiya Janata Party will be looking forward to returning to power once again.
Chhattisgarh Assembly Election: Who is Ahead?
- Polls: Indian National Congress
- Google Trends: Bharatiya Janata Party
Chhattisgarh Opinion Poll 2023
- Congress: 54
- BJP: 33
- Others: 3
Chhattisgarh Opinion Poll by Peoples Pulse
- Survey predicts Congress could win between 53 to 60 seats out of the 90-member Assembly, while BJP is projected to win 20 to 27 seats.
- Congress is expected to get a vote share of 46%, while BJP is projected at 38%.
- When asked about the choice for the next CM, Bhupesh Baghel led by 10 percentage points over his predecessor Raman Singh.
- 45% of respondents rated the Chief Minister’s performance as “Good.”
- In a comparison of parties for development, 48% favored Congress over 40% for BJP.
- 47% believe the Congress government should be given another term.
- Main Issues Identified: Price rise, unemployment, infrastructure/roads, health care, and corruption.
- General Voters: Slightly more inclined towards the BJP.
- OBCs: The vote is divided; while certain communities favor Congress, others lean towards the BJP.
- SC Population: Predominantly supports Congress.
- ST Community: Vote is divided among Congress, BJP, and other regional parties.
- Muslims and Christians: Both communities lean towards Congress.
Opinion Poll for Chhattisgarh Assembly 2023 by Small Box India [No track record in Chhattisgarh]
- Total Assembly Seats: 90
- Congress: 52-58 seats
- BJP: 25-26 seats
- Others: 4-6 seats
Chhattisgarh Opinion Poll 2023: Google Trends
- Bharatiya Janata Party: 58%
- Indian National Congress: 42%
In the 2018 election, Congress was ahead 59% to 41% after phase 1. Google search suggests a complete reversal in 2023 in favor of BJP (Recall that Google Search is accurate only 70% of the time)
- Bharatiya Janata Party: 47%
- Indian National Congress: 53%
What is working in favor of Congress?
Axis-My-India for India Today’s Political Stock Exchange
- Congress is projected to win 50 seats while the BJP is to win 38 seats
- Congress is expected to get a 45% vote share while the BJP is to get a 42% vote share
ABP-Cvoter Survey Analysis
- Congress projected to return to power in Chhattisgarh; BJP expected to give a tough competition.
- Projected 2.5% swing in Congress’ vote share: 45.6% from 43.1% in 2018.
- BJP’s vote share is expected to grow by 8.1%: 41.1% from 33% in the last assembly elections.
Chief Ministerial Candidates:
- Chief Minister and Congress leader Bhupesh Baghel emerges as the top preferred candidate.
- Raman Singh from BJP follows in second place.
- TS Singhdev from Congress secured the third
- Ramesh Bais from BJP secured the fourth position respectively.
- CM Bhupesh Baghel garners support from 48% of participants.
- Three-time CM Raman Singh receives backing from 23% of voters.
Findings of the Peoples Pulse mood survey
- The popularity of the CM: Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel’s popularity is a significant factor favoring the Congress in Chhattisgarh. Despite being in power since 2018, CM Bhupesh Baghel enjoys a significant lead over his challenger, Raman Singh. As per the survey, Bhupesh Baghel was leading by 10 percentage points over his predecessor Raman Singh.
- Regional Identity Card: The Congress has built a sub-nationalist narrative termed “Chhattisgarhiya,” which contrasts with the BJP’s national narrative and Hindutva ideology.
- The use of local dialect in government campaigns and slogans like “Gadhbo Nava Chhattisgarh” (We will make a New Chhattisgarh) reinforces the regional appeal of the Congress.
- Sports and cultural events like the Chhattisgariya Olympics and the release of a state song, “Arpa – Pairi ke dhar,” on a regional platform further boost the Congress’ popularity.
- Coupling regional pride with a soft Hindutva push has proven to be advantageous for the Congress, as per the survey findings.
- Schemes: Innovative schemes like the Godhan Nyay Yojana, which involves purchasing cow dung from cattle herders to produce organic vermicompost, have struck a chord with the electorate. Added to it effective delivery of welfare schemes and Bhupesh Baghel’s direct interactions with people through “Bhent Mulaqat” during his visits to villages and towns have enhanced his public image and contributed to the Congress’ favorability.
Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections 2023: Date and Schedule
The first phase of the elections will be held on the 7th of November, which will cover 20 assembly constituencies and the second phase will be held on the 17th of November, 2013 covering 70 constituencies. A total of 2,03,80,079 voters will be voting this year, among which 2,63, 829 are first-time voters. There will be a total of 24, 109 polling stations.
- Congress MLA from Samri Constituency, Chintamani Maharaj joined BJP on the issue of being denied a ticket for the upcoming elections. He is one among the 3 rebel MLAs from Congress who left the party for BJP.
- Priyanka Gandhi makes the announcement of 8 Guarantees for the people of Chhattisgarh
- There is a caste certificate issue with Ramkumar Toppo, a BJP Candidate from the Sitapur constituency, who is accused of forging his documents and adding Toppo to his surname, thereby recording a false surname to obtain undue benefit of reservation.
- Amit Jogi, son of Chhattisgarh’s first Chief Minister Ajit Jogi, filed his nomination papers from the Patan constituency, which is the home turf of incumbent Chief Minister, Bhupesh Baghel. Jogi is also the Janata Congress Chhattisgarh President and his nomination has made Patan a three-cornered contest between Bhupesh Baghel of Congress, BJP Candidate Vijay Baghel, and him.
Chhattisgarh Election Promises and Crucial Battles
Priyanka Gandhi’s 8 Guarantees for Chhattisgarh
- Free Electricity for up to 200 units.
- upgrading of 6, 000 higher secondary and high schools to Swami Aatmanand Schools.
- Rs 500 per refill of LPG cylinders for women under the Mehtrai Nyay Yojana.
- Loan waivers of women-led SHGs under Saksham Yojana.
- Free treatment to citizens in case of road accidents and sudden mishaps under the Chief Minister Special Assistance Scheme.
- 1, 000 rural Industrial Parks.
- Inclusion of ‘tivara’ lentil in farmer’s support price.
- Waiver of all outstanding Motor Vehicle Tax and penalties worth Rs 726 crore until 2018 for more than 6, 600 vehicle owners engaged in the transport business.
Arvind Kejriwal’s “Guarantees” for Chhattisgarh Assembly Polls:
- 24-hour uninterrupted power supply, free up to 300 units, to every household.
- Waiver of pending electricity bills until November 2023.
- ₹1,000 monthly ‘samman rashi’ (honorarium) for women aged 18 and above; free quality education for school children.
- Free and improved healthcare for all Chhattisgarh citizens.
- Establishment of mohalla clinics in every village and city ward.
- Employment and a ₹3,000 monthly allowance for the unemployed.
- Free pilgrimage for senior citizens; commitment to a corruption-free Chhattisgarh.
- ₹1 crore ‘samman rashi’ for relatives of state police and Chhattisgarh-origin army personnel martyred in the line of duty.
- Regularization of contractual employees.
- The tenth guarantee is about farmers and tribals but Arvind Kejriwal said that he will reveal it during his next visit.
Baghel vs Baghel for Patan Assembly seat
BJP has fielded its Durg MP Vijay Baghel, a distant nephew of Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel, from the Patan constituency in the upcoming Chhattisgarh Assembly elections. This is a high-profile contest as it will be a family battle between the two Baghels. Vijay Baghel has been a two-time MLA from Patan, having won the seat in 2008 and 2013. He is also the incumbent MP from Durg. He is a former minister in the Raman Singh government and is known for his aggressive style of politics.
Opinion Poll for Lok Sabha 2024
The India-TV-CNX recently released an opinion poll for the upcoming Lok Sabha election. As per the poll, the BJP is once again set to win more number to seats than the Congress.
As per the poll, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is projected to receive 46% of the total vote share in Chhattisgarh, while the Indian National Congress (Congress) is expected to get 43% of the vote share. Other parties are anticipated to secure 11% of the vote share.
In terms of seats, the opinion poll predicts that the BJP will win 7 seats, which is a decrease of two seats compared to the 9 seats it won in the 2019 polls. On the other hand, the Congress is likely to increase its seat tally from 2 to 4.
Chhattisgarh Opinion Poll 2023: Electoral Issues
- Agriculture: In Chhattisgarh, farmers and their problems have a big impact on the state’s politics. About 70% of the state’s people are farmers or related to agricultural jobs. There are around 3.75 million farmers in the state, and most of them (about 80%) are small-scale farmers. Back in 2018, the Congress party made a significant change in the political game by offering farm loan waivers and raising the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for paddy from Rs 2,100 to Rs 2,500. They got the fruits in the election results. Additionally, Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel’s decision to purchase paddy at Rs 2,640 per quintal in 2022 has greatly benefited the government. The party having a better approach to improving the lives of the farmers is likely to get the benefit in the upcoming election too.
- Unemployment: The young people in Chhattisgarh, who make up about 25% of the total population, are still struggling with the problem of unemployment. Nevertheless, a sudden announcement made right before the elections regarding an allowance of Rs 2,500 for unemployment, along with the distribution of two payments to one million young individuals, has definitely sparked optimism among the unemployed youth. It will be interesting to see how much the govt can benefit from it.
- Reservation: A significant point worth noting was the ongoing disagreement between the governing party and the former governor, Anusuiya Uikey, regarding the reservation. On December 3, 2022, three bills were approved that granted reservation in government employment and admission to educational institutions. This included a 32% quota for the Scheduled Tribe, 27% for Other Backward Classes (OBC), 13 percent for Scheduled Caste (SC), and 4% for Economically Weaker Sections. This move, based on the population proportions of various groups, raised the total reservation in the state to 76%.
- Anti-Incumbency: As explained by political expert Prakash Chandra Hota, we can mainly judge the level of dissatisfaction with the current government by looking at how well social welfare programs are put into action and how well Members of the Legislative Assembly (MLAs) are connected to the people they represent. The concept of anti-incumbency extends to leaders occupying opposition roles too. Are individuals satisfied with the experienced yet well-known figures within the BJP? Is the party prepared to take a daring step in transitioning its leadership? A lot will depend on these factors too.
Chhattisgarh Opinion Poll 2023: BJP’s Strategy
After being out of power for five years and working hard to build a strong presence, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is optimistic that its approach of addressing caste and regional interests, promoting fresh candidates, and centering its election campaign on topics like unemployment and corruption will enable the party to win the upcoming Chhattisgarh assembly elections and form a new government later this year.
As per individuals with knowledge of the matter, while the campaign is being crafted to “put pressure on” the Congress government over various concerns, with corruption being a prominent one, the party believes that the selection of candidates in crucial constituencies, like Vijay Baghel being pitted against his uncle and the current Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel, will give an extra edge to the electoral contest.
Certainly, while Vijay Baghel has been announced as the candidate for the Patan constituency, there is no official confirmation yet regarding whether the Chief Minister will run for the same seat, a seat he has won on three previous occasions, with the exception of 2008 when Vijay Baghel defeated him.
“It will indeed be a demanding electoral contest for the Chief Minister, as he will be up against his nephew who has previously emerged victorious against him. If he decides not to run from the Patan constituency or opts to contest from two seats, it could convey an unfavorable message to the voters. In any case, the Patan seat will attract significant attention,” remarked a senior party official who preferred to remain anonymous.
Chhattisgarh Opinion Poll 2023: The Battle of Bilaspur
Bilaspur is the largest area in the state and includes the most Assembly constituencies — a total of 24 out of 90. This region is made up of eight districts: Bilaspur, Korba, Janjgir-Champa, Gaurela-Pendra-Marwahi, Raigarh, Sakti, Mugeli, and Sarangarh-Bilaigarh. Hence is pretty obvious that the region holds important importance in deciding the fate of parties contesting the elections. In 2018, this region was visited by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Amit Shah, and Rahul Gandhi as part of their election campaigns.
This region is a closely fought battleground between the BJP and Congress. Among the 24 Assembly seats in this area, the Congress holds 12, the BJP has seven, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has two, and former CM Ajit Jogi’s Janta Congress Chhattisgarh holds two.
The difference in vote share between the two parties has mostly been within three percent which suggests the battle has always been a close one. Even in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had only a slightly more than four percent lead in vote share over the Congress. Nevertheless, the BJP held an overall statewide advantage of 10 percent against the Congress. Bilaspur’s mood will play a pivotal role in the upcoming assembly elections.
Chhattisgarh Opinion Poll 2023: Who will win Dhamtari Seat?
The Dhamtari assembly constituency, located 77 kilometers away from the capital city of Raipur in Chhattisgarh, has played a significant role in the state’s politics and history. In the 2018 assembly elections, the BJP had to face a decisive defeat throughout the state. The BJP lost power and was limited to 15 seats in the entire state. One of these seats was won by the BJP in Dhamtari, but the victory was very narrow, with a margin of just 464 votes. The BJP received 36.64% of the votes, while the Congress received 36.37%. Therefore, in 2018, the Dhamtari assembly constituency witnessed a fiercely contested battle.
What happened in the 2018 Assembly Elections? The Dhamtari assembly constituency, located 77 kilometers away from the capital city of Raipur in Chhattisgarh, has played a significant role in the state’s politics and history. In the 2018 assembly elections, the BJP had to face a decisive defeat throughout the state. The BJP lost power and was limited to 15 seats in the entire state. One of these seats was won by the BJP in Dhamtari, but the victory was very narrow, with a margin of just 464 votes. The BJP received 36.64% of the votes, while the Congress received 36.37%. Therefore, in 2018, the Dhamtari assembly constituency witnessed a fiercely contested battle.
Chhattisgarh Opinion Poll 2023: Seat Division
Chhattisgarh, the central Indian state, is geographically and politically divided into three main regions: North, Central, and South.
The North region, commonly known as Surguja, holds significance due to its substantial population of Scheduled Tribes (STs) and Other Backward Classes (OBCs). This region comprises 23 seats in the state assembly.
The Central region has more Scheduled Caste population with nearly all the SC-reserved seats in Chhattisgarh falling in this region. The region has 55 assembly seats.
The Southern part of Chhattisgarh also referred to as the Bastar region, is primarily dominated by Scheduled Tribes (STs). Out of the 12 seats in this region, 11 are reserved for ST candidates.
Chhattisgarh Opinion Poll 2023: What Happened In The Last Assembly Election?
The last Chhattisgarh Legislative Assembly election was held on 12 and 20 November 2018. BJP was defending its 15 years of rule while the Indian National Congress was eyeing to return to power after 15 years of political exile. The election result was highly encouraging for INC while the ruling BJP suffered a major setback. In the 90-member Legislative Assembly of Chhattisgarh, the Indian National Congress (INC) won the election with a landslide victory, winning 68 seats, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 15 seats.
The overall result of the 2018 Chhattisgarh Legislative Assembly election:
- The INC won 68 seats, while the BJP won 15 seats.
- The INC’s vote share was 43.3%, while the BJP’s vote share was 33.1%.
- The turnout was 75.3%.
- Bhupesh Baghel was sworn in as the Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh on 17 December 2018.
Chhattisgarh Opinion Poll 2023: History
Chhattisgarh, the 26th state of India, came into existence on November 1, 2000, following the approval of the Madhya Pradesh Reorganization Act 2000 by the President of India on August 25, 2000.
The first assembly of Chhattisgarh was elected in 1998, with the Indian National Congress (INC) emerging victorious, leading to the appointment of Ajit Jogi as the state’s inaugural chief minister.
In 2003, the second assembly elections were held, and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured a victory, paving the way for Raman Singh to become the second chief minister of Chhattisgarh.
Subsequently, the third assembly elections took place in 2008, wherein the BJP managed to retain power and Raman Singh was reelected as the Chief Minister of the state.
The fourth assembly elections occurred in 2013, and the BJP once again secured victory, resulting in Raman Singh returning as the chief minister of the state.
Finally, in 2018, Chhattisgarh held its fifth assembly elections, which were won by the Indian National Congress (INC). Bhupesh Baghel was chosen as the fifth chief minister of Chhattisgarh following the party’s triumph in the polls.
Chhattisgarh Election Polls: Demography of the State
Chhattisgarh, with a population of 25,545,198 according to the 2011 census, ranks as the 17th most populous state in India. The sex ratio in the state stands at 937 females per 1000 males.
In terms of religion, Hinduism holds a significant majority in Chhattisgarh, representing 93.25% of the population. Other religious groups in the state include Muslims (2.02%), Christians (1.92%), and Buddhists (0.28%).
Education remains an area of concern for the state, as the literacy rate stands at 71.8%, lower than the national average of 77.7%.