2024 Lok Sabha Opinion Poll: Who will be the Next PM of India?

2024 Lok Sabha Election Prediction: Check out the latest 2024 Lok Sabha Opinion Poll and the latest election news and updates.

Summary

• Latest Poll: NDA: 297-317 I.N.D.I: 165-185 YSRCP: 24-25 BJD: 13-15 Others: 11-14
• Google Search Share: BJP 70%, Congress 30%
• Social Media Sentiments: BJP -29%, Congress -20%
• Crowdwisdom360 Prediction: NDA to win 400+ Seats

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The tenure of the current Lok Sabha which is the 17th Lok Sabha will come to an end on June 16th, 2024. Therefore, the Election Commission of India will have to hold the Election for the 18th Lok Sabha before the term of the current Lok Sabha ends.

The Indian lower house of the Parliament, which is the Lok Sabha has a total of 543 seats. Each seat is filled by members from the 543 Lok Sabha constituencies spread across the Indian states and Union Territories. For any political party or for any political coalition to form their government, will have to win 272 seats. A party failing to win 272 seats on its own will have to rely on its coalition to win a minimum of 272 to form its government.

For Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his party, Bhartiya Janata Party, the next challenge will be the 2024 Lok Sabha election. Going into the election, Modi will have 10 years of anti-incumbency behind him. His party will be defending 10 years of work done. Will Narendra Modi Win Record 3rd Term?

2024 Lok Sabha Opinion Poll: Who will win 2024 election in India?

	Who is Leading?
Polls	BJP+
Google Search	BJP+
Social Media Sentiments	BJP+

2024 Lok Sabha Election: Latest Developments

• Congress to assess the strengths and weaknesses of leader
• Congress has started forming assessment teams for Lok Sabha polls ahead of 2024 in Gujarat. This involves assessing the strength and weakness of local leaders and rebuilding the organization across 26 LS seats through analyzing various aspects such as social dynamics, geographical location, on ground situation, opinion of local leaders, factors for improvement.
• Revision of Electoral rolls in Jharkhand
• Revision of electoral rolls for the LS elections have started in Jharkhand with a special drive to include the members of the vulnerable tribal groups, sex workers, transgenders, the specially abled persons, homeless, and voters aged over 80 years.
• Madhya Pradesh Congress ready for Coalition in Assembly elections
• As the Congress in Madhya Pradesh led by Kamal Nath is gearing for the Assembly polls, Congress has been planning for the LS elections 2024. In such a case, Congress is fine if the coalition happens with INDIA bloc partners, namely, Samajwadi Party, Aam Admi Party.
• Congress Promises in Mizoram
• The Congress led by Rahul Gandhi has promised an old age pension of INR 2000 per month, gas cylinders at INR 750, financial support for entrepreneurs. Since Mizoram faces drug issues exacerbated by the lack of employment, Congress will focus on job creation for the youth.
• AIADMK broke its alliance with BJP
  • The AIADMK said that it had decided to break the alliance due to the BJP’s “attacks and defamatory statements” against the AIADMK and its leaders for over a year.
• Congress Demands Ballot Papers to be used in Lok Sabha Election
  • Congress MP Manish Tewari has called for voting in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections to be held on paper ballots, arguing that democracy is too precious to be left to technology. He has also expressed concern about the possibility of electronic voting machines (EVMs) being manipulated.
• BJP-JDS To Form Alliance:
  • The former Karnataka Chief Minister BS Yediyurappa confirmed that the BJP and JD(S) have formalized their alliance for the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha election in Karnataka. Yediyurappa stated that the agreement includes four seats, with Amit Shah consenting to allocate four Lok Sabha seats to JD(S).
  • It’s worth noting that JD(S) had previously formed a coalition government with the Congress, led by HD Kumaraswamy as Chief Minister. However, the government lost a vote of confidence in 2019, just a year after coming to power.
  • Reports suggest that JD(S) aimed to contest in Mandya, Hassan, Tumakuru, Chickballapur, and Bengaluru Rural. The BJP agreed to allow JD(S) to contest in four of these seats: Kolar, Hassan, Mandya, and Bengaluru Rural.
• Recent Bypoll Result: INDIA 4, BJP 3
  • The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged victorious in the Dhanpur and Boxanagar assembly seats in Tripura and successfully defended the Bageshwar assembly seat in Uttarakhand during the recent byelections. In West Bengal, the ruling Trinamool Congress managed to secure the Dhupguri Assembly seat, taking it from the BJP. Jharkhand Mukti Morcha’s (JMM) Bebi Devi, an ally of the INDIA alliance, won the Dumri assembly seat in Jharkhand by a substantial margin of over 17,000 votes, defeating the NDA candidate Yashoda Devi. Meanwhile, the Congress party achieved a significant victory in Kerala’s Puthuppally assembly constituency.
  • In a notable development benefiting the INDIA alliance, the Samajwadi Party (SP) defeated the BJP in the Ghosi bypoll in Uttar Pradesh with a substantial margin of 42,759 votes. This election marked the first contest in Uttar Pradesh since the formation of the Opposition alliance, with the Congress also extending its support to the SP candidate as part of the INDIA understanding.
• One Nation, One Election
  • Led by former President Ram Nath Kovind, the Central government has formed a committee to examine the viability of “one nation, one election”. The committee has been assigned the responsibility of investigating the possibility of reverting to the practice of holding Lok Sabha and state assembly elections simultaneously, a system that was in place until 1967.
  • There are chances that the elections that will take place in the coming months could be cobbled with the Lok Sabha election.
  • The terms of a minimum of ten State Assemblies will conclude either just before or around the designated date for the general elections in 2024. While the Assembly elections in five states, namely Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Telangana, Mizoram, and Chhattisgarh, are scheduled to take place by the end of this year, it is probable that elections in Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha, Sikkim, and Jharkhand will coincide with the Lok Sabha elections.

Latest 2024 Lok Sabha Opinion Poll

TimesNow-ETG September Tracker: NDA: 297-317 I.N.D.I: 165-185 YSRCP: 24-25 BJD: 13-15 Others: 11-14

Indiatvnews-CNX: NDA: 318, I.N.D.I Alliance: 175, BJP: 290

IndiaToday MOTN NDA: 306, I.N.D.I Alliance: 193, BJP: 287

Statewise Opinion Poll (Times Now-ETG)

Hindi Heartland:

• Rajasthan: BJP+: 20-22 Congress+: 2-3
• Bihar: BJP+: 22-24 Congress+: 16-18
• Madhya Pradesh: BJP+: 24-26 Congress+: 3-5
• Delhi: BJP+: 5-6 Congress+: 1-2

West India:

• Gujarat: BJP+: 26 Congress+: 0
• Maharashtra: BJP+: 28-32 Congress+: 15-19

East India:

• West Bengal: BJP+: 16-18 Congress+ (TMC 22-24): 23-27

2024 Lok Sabha Election: Statewise Predictions

Lok Sabha Election Prediction 2024: Last 7 Days

Google Trends for Parties

• BJP: 55% (as compared to 63% around the same time in 2018)
• INC: 44%

Google Trends Leaders

• Narendra Modi: 87% (as compared to 84% same time in 2018)
• Rahul Gandhi: 12%

What do intellectuals say?

Indian-American economist Arvind Panagariya and Jagdish Bhagwati, a professor of Indian political economy at Columbia University, have forecasted that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to secure a third consecutive term in the 2024 elections. They base their prediction on a range of welfare initiatives implemented by his administration. These initiatives include providing toilets for women, establishing bank accounts, and ensuring water connections for marginalized sections, which have been carried out by the Modi Government since 2014.

Panagariya has also foreseen that India will ascend from its current 5th position to secure the rank of the world’s 3rd largest economy in the coming decade. He asserts that he was among the initial prognosticators of the triumph of the Modi government in the 2019 general election. As a distinguished political economist on the global stage, Panagariya has now projected a recurrence of the Modi government’s 2019 achievement in the upcoming 2024 Lok Sabha Elections.

NDA vs INDIA: Who is ahead at the moment?

As the opposition parties came under one roof in Bengaluru to name their alliance as the Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), the decision certainly put the NDA slightly on the back foot. But a name itself is surely not enough to convince the voters. A catchy name might give the perception that the opposition alliance can pose a serious threat to the NDA-led government. However, a careful analysis reveals that the NDA might still have a significant edge in the electoral strength.

The INDIA and NDA alliances say they include 28 and 38 political parties, but there’s still a disagreement about how many parties are actually with them. 

Political Dynamics: Looking at the recent state assembly elections, a study by the CSDS Data Unit indicates that the INDIA alliance seems more powerful than the NDA for state-level elections. However, this alliance might not pose a strong challenge to the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, considering the results of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

Regional vs National: As per a recent analysis by the CSDS Data Unit, the vote share of the coalition parties the INDIA during the last assembly elections in the states was 39.7% while the NDA got 34.7% votes. The data clearly hints that the INDIA alliance might have an upper hand in state assemblies.

However, the dynamics completely change when it comes to the Lok Sabha elections. According to the analysis based on the 2019 verdict, the INDIA alliance commands 171 Lok Sabha seats, while the NDA looks safe at 303. This data has been estimated considering a hypothetical situation if the current INDIA partners had joined hands back in 2019 to challenge the NDA.

2024 Lok Sabha Election Opinion Poll: Social Media Sentiments

BJP vs Congress

• BJP: -21%
• Congress: -25%

Modi vs Gandhi

• Narendra Modi: -2%
• Rahul Gandhi: -9%

Who is the Next PM of India in 2024: Major Findings

• PM Modi enjoys an approval rating of 76% according to the latest Morning Consult survey. Typically an approval rating of 50-55% is enough for re-election
• 2024 Lok Sabha Opinion Poll: Performance of Prime Minister Modi [2019-22]

• 53% of respondents prefer Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister in 2024
  • 66% of voters think the PM is doing a Good/ Outstanding Job overall
  • 48% of the voters think the Government is doing a Good/ Outstanding job on the economy
• None of the opposition candidates cross 10% in preference for PM
• NDA’s Strong Voting Blocks (2019)
  • Upper Caste
  • OBCs
  • These two voting blocks make up about 55% of India’s population. NDA wins nearly 75% of its votes from the two voting blocks
• India 2024 Opinion Poll: The factors favoring Narendra Modi’s re-election in 2024 are:
  • TINA (There Is No Alternative) – The TINA factor has been one of the major factors that helped Narendra Modi cruise through the 2019 Lok Sabha election. The same seems to be turning out to be a major factor that may help Narendra Modi win the consecutive 3rd. As of now, the public is yet to be convinced by any of the opposition faces who could be an alternative to Narendra Modi in 2024.
  • Divided Opposition – After the 2014 Lok Sabha election, there have been talks about opposition unity. But the opposition unity has been more hype than reality. In 2019, a Mahagathbandan was formed to take on Narendra Modi and his party BJP. But by the time the Lok Sabha election in 2019 came, the Mahagathbandan looked more like an alliance between a few parties than the mega opposition coalition. The same turned out to be true even for the 2024 Lok Sabha. The opposition has more faces who are eyeing the Prime Minister’s chair and none want to compromise despite all having the same common enemy, Narendra Modi.
  • Funding – The other main factor that the opposition in India lacks is funding. BJP is not short of funds and with power in major states of India, they can contest any election with a huge might. The opposition on the other hand does not have enough funds to take on the mighty BJP. Though they may show the intent of defeating Narendra Modi and the BJP, the funding issue will keep their campaigning to limited reach and BJP will be able to spread their message to the majority and the message will be loud and clear.
  • Performance on key development initiatives: Apart from the previously implemented, Swacch Bharat Yojana, LPG schemes, PM Kisan Samman Yojana, and PM Awas Yojana has also caught pace.

Latest CSDS Survey Result

The latest survey conducted by CSDS after the completion of 9 years of the Modi Government, put Narendra Modi ahead of Rahul Gandhi by 16 points. The survey was conducted across 19 states between May 10 and 19, just after the Karnataka election result.

The findings of the survey are as follows:

• 43 percent of respondents said they wanted to see Modi as their PM which is 1 percent less compared to the 2019 elections.
• Ratings of Rahul Gandhi have improved from 23 percent to 27 percent.
• 63 percent of people believe that the country’s global stature grew under PM Modi while 23% did not agree.
• 47 percent of the respondents rated the Modi government’s development work “high”.
• Unemployment, poverty, and price rise are set to be the main election issues as per the majority of the respondents.
• 47% have given a high rating to the government’s development work
• 57% of the respondents said populist policies are essential for the poor.

Rahul Gandhi has been able to improve his acceptance as compared to 2019. Modi remains to be a better choice as Prime Minister of the country.

Rajasthan Opinion Poll 2023

Chhattisgarh Opinion Poll 2023

Telangana Opinion Poll 2023

Madhya Pradesh Opinion Poll 2023

How Will Karnataka Assembly Election Affect 2024 Lok Sabha Elections in India?

Karnataka, with its significant number of seats in the Lok Sabha, has emerged as a crucial determinant of power for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) demonstrated its prowess by securing an impressive victory, winning 17 out of the 28 seats in Karnataka. The party further solidified its dominance in 2019 by triumphing in 25 seats, clearly establishing Karnataka as a stronghold for the BJP.

However, the recent 2023 Assembly Election in Karnataka has marked a significant turning point. The electoral landscape witnessed a potential resurgence of the Congress party, indicating a possible shift in power dynamics. The Congress party’s performance in the assembly elections signals a renewed strength and raises the prospect of their comeback in Karnataka.

This potential return of the Congress in Karnataka carries profound implications for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in 2024. Firstly, it challenges the BJP’s stronghold in the state and presents a formidable opposition force that could potentially chip away at the BJP’s seat tally. The Congress, buoyed by its performance in the assembly elections, may mobilize its resources and strategize to regain lost ground, targeting key constituencies that were previously under BJP control.

Secondly, the outcome in Karnataka could have ripple effects on the overall political landscape of India. A resurgence of the Congress in Karnataka would inject fresh energy into the party, instilling confidence among its members and supporters nationwide. This renewed vigor could potentially translate into improved performance in other states, thereby altering the overall equation in the Lok Sabha.

Furthermore, the outcome of the 2023 Assembly Election in Karnataka could influence the perception and mood of the electorate leading up to the Lok Sabha elections. If the Congress manages to secure a substantial victory, it could boost the morale of its supporters and potentially attract swing voters, creating a wave of momentum that could favor the party in the national elections.

Electorate rejection in Karnataka: The BJP’s defeat in Karnataka, the only southern state where it has been in power, is a significant setback for the party. It indicates that the BJP’s traditional strategies may not be as effective in the southern region. However, the party has shown resilience and determination to stick to its political-governance agenda, suggesting that it will not be easily deterred by electoral setbacks.

Concerns about the road ahead: The BJP’s lack of organization in the poll-bound states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan is a cause for concern. These states are crucial for the party’s electoral strategy, and internal disarray could hinder its chances of retaining power. The BJP will need to address its internal issues and strengthen its organizational structure to increase its prospects in these states.

Recent government decisions: The promulgation of an Ordinance to nullify the Supreme Court’s ruling on the “services” issue, the withdrawal of Rs 2,000 notes, and the removal of Kiren Rijiju from the Law Ministry have surprised both critics and party insiders. These decisions demonstrate the BJP’s determination to pursue its agenda, even if it means overriding legal judgments or making unexpected moves. The party’s message is clear: it will do what it believes is necessary to further its goals, regardless of criticism or opposition.

2024 Lok Sabha Election: India Today MOTN Survey

• Approval Rating of PM Modi

2022 August: 56 %, 2023 January: 67 %

• People dissatisfied with Modi Govt.

2022 August: 32 %, 2023 January: 18 %

• Mood of The Nation Survey for Lok Sabha polls

NDA : 298 (43%), UPA : 154 (30%)

• Best Prime Minister

Narendra Modi: 47%, Atal Bihari Vajpayee: 16%, Indira Gandhi: 12%, Manmohan Singh: 08%

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Lok Sabha Opinion Polls 2024: Narendra Modi vs Rahul Gandhi

PM Modi, Key Strengths (As per a wide range of experts)

• Perceived as Strong and Decisive
• Strong Communication Skills, and ability to connect with masses via multiple communication platforms
• Efficiency in Implementing Government Programs and Policies
• Aggressive and strong Foreign Policy

Rahul Gandhi, Key Strengths (As per a wide range of experts)

• Perceived as focused towards farmers, rural population, poor, and minorities
• Seen as more empathetic

PM Modi, Key Weaknesses (as per a wide range of experts)

• Ability to manage the economy effectively
• Lack of Inclusiveness, particularly among minorities
• Considered to be a vanguard of crony capitalism

Rahul Gandhi, Key Weaknesses (as per a wide range of experts)

• Lack of experience in Governance
• Inability to communicate effectively and clearly with voters
• Broader Political skills

2024 Lok Sabha Election: Rahul Gandhi vs Modi

Observation and Findings

• Gujarat – Modi’s Strongest State: Narendra Modi enjoys significant popularity in his home state of Gujarat. Given his strong connection with the people and his developmental track record as the former Chief Minister of the state, he tends to outperform Rahul Gandhi here.
• Andhra Pradesh – Modi underperforms Jagan Reddy: In Andhra Pradesh, Modi’s performance is relatively weaker compared to the incumbent Chief Minister, Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy. Despite the BJP’s efforts to make inroads in the state, Jagan Reddy’s popularity and regional factors seem to overshadow Modi’s influence.
• Tamil Nadu – Modi’s Weakest State: Tamil Nadu is one of the states where Modi’s influence is relatively weak. The BJP has traditionally struggled to gain a significant foothold in the state’s political landscape. Therefore, Rahul Gandhi and his party often fare better in Tamil Nadu compared to Modi and the BJP.
• West Bengal – Strong CM Mamata Banerjee: Mamata Banerjee, the Chief Minister of West Bengal, is a formidable opponent for both Modi and Rahul Gandhi. She enjoys strong regional support and has successfully defended her position against the BJP’s attempts to make significant inroads in the state.

• Maharashtra – Rahul Gandhi fares better than in Rajasthan: Rahul Gandhi tends to fare better in Maharashtra, where the Congress party has a more established presence, compared to Rajasthan. In Maharashtra, the Congress has historically performed relatively well, giving Rahul Gandhi a stronger base of support.
• Karnataka – Rahul Gandhi’s weak performance: In recently ruled Karnataka, Rahul Gandhi’s performance is not particularly strong. The state has seen a political seesaw between the BJP and the Congress, and Rahul Gandhi’s influence has been somewhat limited, indicating that he struggles to make significant headway in the state.
• BJP-ruled states – Yogi Adityanath’s strength: Yogi Adityanath, the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh, enjoys considerable popularity and strength within the BJP-ruled states. He has established a strong image and has been successful in consolidating the BJP’s position in the state.
• Weakest CM in BJP-ruled states: Among the BJP-ruled states, Bhupendra Patel is considered the weakest Chief Minister. However, this is expected as he is relatively new to the position. Eknath Shinde is also perceived as one of the weaker BJP Chief Ministers.

2024 Lok Sabha Election Prediction: Has Any Leader Won Record 3rd Term?

Before Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister of India, India had 13 Prime Ministers. However, only two Prime Ministers have been elected for three consecutive terms. The first one was the first Prime Minister of India Jawahar Lal Nehru and the second one was his daughter Indira Gandhi. None other than Nehru and Indira Gandhi have been able to win more than 2 consecutive terms.

Jawahar Lal Nehru won the 4th term but was unable to complete his 4th term as he died during his 4th tenure as Prime Minister of India.

2019 Lok Sabha Election Summary

In 2014, Narendra Modi and his political party Bhartiya Janata Party won the Lok Sabha election. BJP on its own won 282 seats while the coalition, NDA won a total of 336. It was the first time since 1984 that a party had won enough seats to govern without the support of other parties. BJP on its own got a 31% vote share which was the lowest by any party winning majority on its own since independence.

In 2019, after five years of anti-incumbency, the political pundits were predicting that BJP will emerge as the single largest party DNA Exclusive | Jungle raj, legacy of corruption, 1 million jobs: Why ‘Nitish for PM in 2024’ is easier said not win a majority of its own.

The result surprised many as Narendra Modi-led BJP won 303 seats and the BJP lead coalition NDA (National Democratic Alliance) won 353 seats. Rahul Gandhi-led Congress was once again decimated. They managed to win only 52 seats. BJP managed to improve its vote share too, from 31% in 2014, BJP now got a 37.4% vote share.

Opinion Poll India 2024 Conclusion

The 2024 Lok Sabha election is still two years from now and several state elections are to take place before it. If the opposition is to defeat Narendra Modi and BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha election they will have to win most of the upcoming Vidhan Sabha election.

The state that will go for election before the 2024 Lok Sabha election in Gujarat, Himachal, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh, Tripura, Nagaland, and Meghalaya. Barring Rajasthan and Chattisgarh, the rest of the states have either a BJP government or a BJP coalition government. The opposition needs to win a maximum of these states in order to keep their hopes high for the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

Therefore, considering the several factors, it can be said that Narendra Modi may be able to return to power once again unless the opposition comes together and place a strong face against him.

2024 Opinion Poll India: States Elections To Be Conducted Along With LS 2024

Along with the Lok Sabha election in 2024, a few states will also be going to the polls to elect their new Government. The states where elections will be held to elect their new Government are:

1. Arunachal Pradesh, Current Government: BJP Chief Minister: Pema Khandu
2. Sikkim, Current Government: SKM Chief Minister: Prem Singh Tamang
3. Odisha, Current Government: BJD Chief Minister: Naveen Patnaik
4. Andhra Pradesh Government: YSR Congress Party Chief Minister: YS Jagan Mohan Reddy