BJP 115 seats, INC 114 seats: Madhya Pradesh Opinion Poll 2023
Madhya Pradesh Opinion Poll (Average 2 Polls): Congress: 114 seats, BJP: 115 seats, Others: 1 seat
The Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections, scheduled for November 17th are of immense political importance. Confronted with the challenge of anti-incumbency, these elections represent a critical battleground for both BJP and Congress. Following the unexpected setbacks in Karnataka, safeguarding Madhya Pradesh has become a top priority for the BJP. At the same time, having unceremoniously lost power even after winning the last election, because of internal strife, Congress has been gearing for a strong comeback.
A defeat in these assembly elections could pose a significant hurdle for the BJP as they prepare for the highly anticipated 2024 Lok Sabha elections. But it won’t be easy for the Congress party as the BJP will start the election with 38-40% vote. Congress will have to find ways to drag itself above 45% which could give it 120-130 seats and a majority. It’s worth noting that in 2019, the BJP secured an impressive 28 out of 29 Lok Sabha seats in Madhya Pradesh, underscoring their dominance. However, a change in fortunes in the upcoming assembly elections could carry significant implications.
In the state, a total of 5.52 crore voters will elect the new government. 18.86 lakh voters will exercise their voting rights for the first time.
Madhya Pradesh Opinion Poll 2023: Who is leading?
- BJP: 52%
- Congress: 48%
Social Media Sentiments
- BJP: -29.3% – Trending Lower
- Congress: -10.8%, Improving
**The search volume for Congress has increased in the last 7 days compared to that of BJP**
Madhya Pradesh Opinion Poll 2023: Observations and Insights
- Madhya Pradesh was a top-performing state until 2014 but its performance has deteriorated over the last 8 years.
- That said, MP is not poorly governed or in the bottom, It is mostly in the top 10 on most metrics. This is why the election is likely to be competitive and not one-sided.
- Further, the MP Electorate does not change their votes easily like say most Southern States. This gives BJP a Good starting point against the Congress party.
- However, the Congress which was ousted from power after numerous Scindia-backed MLAs defected to the BJP is on firm grounding to return to power.
- Soon after it came to power, the Congress party passed a bill in the House for 27% reservation for OBCs in Jobs. This inflated the total quota to above 50% and attracted a Supreme Court Stay. The BJP countered this with reservations in the local elections for OBCs. Congress is likely to heavily use this issue to swing at least some votes in its favor.
Madhya Pradesh Opinion Poll 2023: Latest News
- BJP has upped the game of playing the builder of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya as political card in Madhya Pradesh projecting itself as the protector of Sanatan Dharma or Hinduism while Congress has also adopted a soft-Hindutva approach.
- Shivraj Chouhan is considered the ‘MS Dhoni’ by Rajnath Singh as he files his nomination from Budhni.
- Union Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia’s 25 loyalists who had shifted from the then Kamal Nath led government have been given their due in the candidate list in MP. This is a development considered to be the handiwork of the ‘Maharaja of MP Politics – Scindia.
- Congress released its manifesto on October 17th. Some of the highlights of the Manifesto are –
- Rs 25 lakh health cover for all
- Roll back to Old Pension Scheme (OPS)
- Promise of Caste Census
- Financial Assistance of Rs 1,500 for women
- Promise of an IPL team for the state
- Farm Loan Waiver upto Rs 2 lakh
- Free 100 units of electricity, half rate for subsequent 200 units
- LPG cylinders at Rs. 500
- Financial Assistance of Rs. 1500-3000 per month to needy educated unemployed youth for 2 years
- Financial Assistance of Rs. 1.01 lakh at the time of daughter’s marriage
- Free transport for women on metro bus service
- Upto Rs. 25 lakh at 3% interest rate for startups by women
- Regularisation of Anganwadi workers
- Samajwadi Party announced candidates for 40 Assembly seats while its plans to contest all 230 seats.
- Bharatiya Janata Party undertook Booth Vijay Abhiyan / outreach drive in 65, 000 booths across the state.
Madhya Pradesh Opinion Poll 2023: Latest Survey Results and Opinion Polls
|Peacs Media-News24||118 seats||110 seats||2 seats|
|CVoter||112 seats||114 seats||2 seats|
In terms of vote share, both BJP and Congress are expected to get 44 percent vote share each.
In 2018, C Voter predicted that
- BJP will win 106 Seats, Result: 109 seats
- Congress will win 116 Seats, Result: 114 seats
Overall, C Voter performed well in the 2018 election.
- Shivraj Singh Chouhan: 37%
- Kamal Nath: 36%
- Jyotiraditya Scindia: 12%
- Digvijay Singh: 1%
- Others: 1%
- Shivraj Singh Chouhan: 44%
- Kamal Nath: 39%
- Jyotiraditya Scindia: 9%
- Digvijay Singh: 1%
- Others: 7%
A survey was conducted by ABP News in Madhya Pradesh to determine people’s preferred leader for the Chief Minister’s post. People were given the option to choose their favorite leader among Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, former Chief Minister Kamal Nath, Union Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia, and former Chief Minister Digvijay Singh.
According to this survey, 37% of the people expressed their preference for Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan for the CM post, while 36% favored former Chief Minister Kamal Nath. Union Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia was chosen as the preferred leader for the CM post by 12% of the people, whereas only 1% of the people wanted to see former Chief Minister Digvijay Singh as the Chief Minister. Other leaders were preferred by 14% of the people.
- Current Poll Trend Predictions by CVoter:
- BJP and INC (Congress) are neck-and-neck, with both parties showing strong support.
- BSP has a minor presence in comparison to the two major parties.
- Insight from Psephologist Pradip Gupta:
- Shivraj Singh Chouhan from BJP is perceived as being ahead in popular opinion.
- Decreased anti-incumbency sentiments give the BJP a potential edge over Congress in the upcoming elections.
- Digital Insights:
- Google Trends show a decline for Congress since 2018 and a gain for BJP.
- Social Media Sentiments reveal a more negative trend for BJP compared to Congress, which is showing signs of improvement.
Madhya Pradesh Opinion Poll 2023: Election Date and Schedule
The elections in Madhya Pradesh will be a one phase election which is scheduled for November 17th, 2023. The votes shall be counted on December 3rd, 2023.
Madhya Pradesh Opinion Poll 2023: A Historical Rivalry
Since its inception, the BJP has remained a consistent rival to the Congress. In the 1980 Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections, which marked the BJP’s debut in the state, the party secured 30% of the votes. However, it still trailed significantly behind the Congress party. In 1980 and 1985, the Congress garnered 48% and 49% of the votes, respectively, and also secured over 75% of the seats in the House during both years.
Nevertheless, this marked the Congress party’s zenith in Madhya Pradesh. In subsequent Assembly elections, the Congress failed to surpass 41% of the vote share. The decline of the Congress directly benefited the BJP, turning the state’s political landscape increasingly bipolar.
The elections in 1993 and 1998 were extremely tight, with the Congress holding a slim majority and just a two percent gap in vote share between the two parties. In both of these elections, the Congress received 41% of the votes, while the BJP secured 39%.
Since 2003, the BJP has consistently outperformed the Congress in Madhya Pradesh. Even in the 2018 Assembly elections, where the Congress won five more seats, the BJP garnered more votes. Over the past 15 years, except for 2018, the BJP has dominated both Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections in the state.
Under Narendra Modi’s leadership, the BJP’s dominance in Madhya Pradesh has grown even stronger. In the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the party led in 192 and 208 out of 230 Assembly seats, securing over 50% of the votes in both contests. In 2019, the BJP achieved its highest-ever vote share in Madhya Pradesh at 58%, setting a record for any party in the state’s elections.
Madhya Pradesh Opinion Poll 2023: BJP’s Vote-share
With the exception of a short period of around a year, when Kamal Nath from the Congress party held the position of Chief Minister from December 2018 to March 2020, the Hindi heartland state has been primarily governed by the BJP, predominantly under the leadership of Shivraj Singh Chauhan.
They are fully conscious of the narrow margin in the 2018 contest and are determined to leave nothing to chance this time. A public survey carried out by ABP News and CVoter regarding the preliminary list of candidates revealed that a majority of BJP followers (63%) thought that revealing candidates early was a smart decision. However, this sentiment dropped to 43.9% among those who didn’t actively support either the BJP or the Congress. It’s evident that the decision to announce candidates early has uplifted the spirits of state leaders.
A recent poll by India TV-CNX projects BJP’s vote share at 44.38%, Congress’ at 42.51% and others at 13.11%. As mentioned in the news article, the BJP’s strongest achievement was in 1990, when its share of the vote reached 46.5%. By 2018, this percentage had decreased to 41.33%. In 2013, it was approximately 45%.
Challenges of Shivraj Singh Chouhan: While a group of Union ministers, with Amit Shah at the helm, has taken on the challenging responsibility of overseeing election management and strategizing for the Bharatiya Janata Party in the upcoming Madhya Pradesh polls, Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan seems to be facing a significant burden. This burden comprises two key factors: a notable wave of anti-incumbency against his 18-year rule (excluding the 15 months of the Kamal Nath government) and the tarnish of leading a government that was propped up with the support of Congress defectors, led by Union Civil Aviation Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia, since March 2020.
Madhya Pradesh Opinion Poll 2023: Importance of Women Voters
The recent initiative of the Madhya Pradesh government, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), to offer additional benefits to women through the Ladi Behna Yojna scheme has brought attention to the significant women voter demographic in the state. The BJP’s decision to provide subsidized cooking gas and increase reservation in government jobs as “Rakshabandhan gifts” is being viewed as an attempt to attract female voters in the upcoming elections. However, it’s not just the BJP; the Congress party has also made a commitment to provide Rs 1,500 per month to every woman in the state if it gains power in this year’s assembly polls.
The growing inclination of political parties to offer targeted initiatives to women is closely linked to the rising percentage of women participating in the electoral process over the years. According to information from the Election Commission of India, the period from 1962 to 2017/18 witnessed an impressive surge of 27 percent in women’s voter turnout during state assembly elections.
In the Madhya Pradesh Assembly Elections of 2018, women’s voter turnout surpassed that of men in 52 out of the total 230 seats. Notably, in 10 seats, women held the majority, indicating that female voters outnumbered their male counterparts.
Caste Based Voter Preference
According to the India TV CNX Opinion Poll, the voting intentions of the caste communities are as follows:-
- Brahmins – 80% Brahmins prefer BJP while Congress will be able to secure a meagre 12% of Brahmin votes, and others will get 8% of Brahmin votes.
- Rajputs – 72% of Rajputs prefer the ruling BJP government, while 16% of them would go for non-BJP and non-Congress contestants and only 12% of the community votes would go to Congress.
- Bania – 68% of the Banias would prefer to go with the BJP sarkar while the rest 18% would extend their support to non-BJP and non-Congress parties. Congress will be able to secure only 14% of their votes.
- Yadav – Among the Yadavs, while BJP has a strong hold of around 47% of community voters while as much as 35% support Congress. 18% of voters are expected to vote for other party candidates.
- Kurmi – 54% of the community would go for BJP while as much as 41% of the Kurmi voters would vote for the Congress. Both the parties seem to have done well to attract Kurmi voters. Only 5% shall vote for other party candidates.
- Kirar-Dhakad – 84% of this community would vote for the ruling BJP while only 15% would vote for the grand old party.
- OBC – 56% of the voters would mostly prefer BJP while as much as 32% would vote for Congress. And the rest 12% would vote for other parties.
- Jatav-Satnami – This community base is almost equally divided between choosing the Congress and the BJP whereby 45% are expected to vote for BJP and 42% are expected to vote for Congress, and the rest 13% will be voting for other party candidates.
- Bheel – Majority of the community, precisely, 54% of the community would vote for Congress while only 35% would cast their votes for BJP. Only around 11% would go for other parties.
- Muslims – The Congress will retain the votes of almost 87% of Muslim community while as they feel safe in the rule of the grand old party while a negligible 2% would vote for BJP. 11% would vote for other party candidates.
- Other Dalits – The Congress hold over Dalits seems to be weakening (40% support base) as against 44% of the voters likely to vote for BJP.
Madhya Pradesh Opinion Poll 2023: MP Election News Summary Category Based Voter Preference
Tribal Voters are likely to be Key in 2023. Of the 71 seats which were decided by less than 5% margin, 11 are Tribal seats. Further, of the 114 seats won by the Congress in 2018, 30 were Tribal seats. It is this dominance that the Congress will defend while the BJP will want to defend and gain a few seats here.
The Congress will target the 26 General seats that the BJP won narrowly while the BJP will target the 21 General seats Congress won narrowly.
Strategy Analysis Note: Kamal Nath’s Campaign
- Emphasis on Tribal Welfare and Rights: Central to Kamal Nath’s campaign strategy is the championing of tribal rights and the illumination of alleged injustices against this community. By focusing on these claims, he seeks to draw attention to perceived neglect and oversight by the current BJP administration.
- Counter-narrative on Development: Kamal Nath consistently critiques the BJP’s developmental claims, suggesting that while on the surface, there might be progress, underlying issues persist. This tactic seeks to challenge the achievements of the Chouhan administration and position his vision as a more holistic alternative.
- Cultural Affinity and Engagement: The highlighting of the grand religious event in Chhindwara is a deliberate move to connect with the cultural sentiments of the populace. This approach signifies an understanding of the deep-rooted cultural values of the region and an attempt to resonate with the local population.
- Media Critique: By raising concerns over potential media bias, Kamal Nath’s strategy includes creating a dialogue around transparency and accountability. By suggesting underreporting of tribal atrocities, he aims to evoke a sense of urgency and demand clarity on such issues.
- Broad-based Assurances: Kamal Nath has cast a wide net with his promises, targeting different sections of society. By assuring prioritization of tribal demands, he signals a commitment to the marginalized. This strategy seems aimed at garnering support from a diverse voter base.
Election Strategy Note: Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s Campaign
- Anchor on Development & Infrastructure: Chouhan’s campaign heavily anchors on his infrastructural accomplishments, notably in tribal regions. The enhanced connectivity in these areas forms a testament to the dedicated development of Madhya Pradesh’s remote regions.
- Public Welfare as a Core Pillar: Chouhan’s campaign consistently brings to the fore the array of welfare schemes implemented under his leadership. The focus remains on the delivery of basic amenities and the distribution of free rations, portraying a strong commitment to public welfare.
- Engaging the Youth: Recognizing the potential of the youth demographic, positioning the youth as a pivotal segment in his campaign narrative.
- Highlighting Opposition’s Shortcomings: The strategy is clear: Shine a spotlight on the opposition’s perceived shortcomings during Kamal Nath’s tenure. This comparison aims to contrast Chouhan’s governance model with that of the opposition, though with caution to maintain a positive campaign tone.
- Address Tribal Welfare Allegations: Chouhan’s campaign doesn’t shy away from the tribal atrocities allegations. It seeks to address them directly, emphasizing the party’s stance against any wrongdoings and reaffirming Chouhan’s dedication to tribal welfare.
- Agrarian Focus: The increased allocation to the Mukhyamantri Kisan Kalyan Yojana, supported by central government contributions, underscores the campaign’s undivided attention to the welfare of farmers.
- Tribal Welfare and Rights: Both campaigns acknowledge the significance of the tribal community. The difference lies in their approach: while Chouhan’s focus is on development and connectivity, Kamal Nath pushes the narrative of rights and redressal.
- Varied Perspectives on Development: Development is a theme both leaders engage with. Chouhan projects the achievements of his administration, while Kamal Nath critiques them, suggesting alternative pathways.
- Rivalry as a Campaign Tool: The palpable rivalry between the two leaders serves as a campaign tool in itself. Both leaders regularly challenge each other’s policies and actions to define their respective positions.
Madhya Pradesh Opinion Poll 2023:Demography
Madhya Pradesh Religion Mix
- Hindu: 90.9%
- Muslim: 6.6%
Madhya Pradesh Urban-Rural Mix
- Urban: 28%
- Rural: 72%
Madhya Pradesh Caste Mix
- Forward: 15% (Estimated)
- OBC: 48% (Estimated)
- SC: 16%
- ST: 21%
Madhya Pradesh is geographically divided into seven distinct regions, which include Bundelkhand, Chambal, Madhya Bharat, Mahakaushal, Malwa North, and Malwa Tribal-Nimar. Within these regions, the BJP has historically held a stronger political presence in Madhya Bharat, Malwa North, and Malwa Tribal-Nimar, while facing relatively weaker support in Bundelkhand, Chambal, and the Vindhya regions of the state.
Madhya Pradesh Opinion Poll 2023: Summary of Previous Elections
In 2018, the Indian National Congress (INC) emerged as the single largest party, securing 114 seats. However, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was not far behind, with 109 seats.
- Despite falling short of a majority, the INC swiftly moved to secure support from other parties and independent MLAs to bolster their claim to form the government. They managed to gain the backing of one MLA from the Samajwadi Party, two MLAs from the Bahujan Samaj Party, and four independent MLAs. With this combined support, the INC demonstrated its ability to establish a majority in the assembly.
- However, the stability of the Kamal Nath-led government faced a severe blow as 22 sitting MLAs backed by Jyotiraditya Schindia tendered their resignations. This development, combined with subsequent political developments, led to Kamal Nath’s resignation on 20 March 2020. In a turn of events, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, representing the BJP, reclaimed the position of Chief Minister on 23 March 2020.
In 2013, the BJP emerged as the clear winner, securing a commanding tally of 165 seats in the legislative assembly. This remarkable achievement solidified their dominance and positioned them as the leading political force in the state. The Congress party, a prominent contender, secured a respectable but distant second place, securing 58 seats. Meanwhile, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) made a modest presence with 4 seats.