BJP to Win 113 Seats, INC 76 Seats: Rajasthan Opinion Poll 2023
Rajasthan Elections 2023 Opinion Poll: BJP is set to win the upcoming assembly election in Rajasthan as per the polls.
Latest Rajasthan Election Seats Prediction: BJP: 113 seats INC: 76 seats
The upcoming Rajasthan election, set to take place on November 25th, has become a crucial battleground for the Congress. The party is faced with the daunting challenge of anti-incumbency, which adds immense significance to this election. Building on the momentum gained from their success in Karnataka, the Congress is striving to overcome the odds and secure a victory in Rajasthan.
Meanwhile, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) finds itself in a position where it must make a strong comeback in the state. With the Lok Sabha Elections scheduled for the following year, Rajasthan’s significance is further magnified for the BJP. In the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections, the party had an impressive performance, securing 24 out of the 25 seats in Rajasthan.
Rajasthan Opinion Poll 2023: Who is leading?
- Polls: BJP
- Google Trends: BJP
- Social Media Sentiment: Congress
Rajasthan Election Latest Developments
- The Enforcement Directorate have raided the premises of Rajasthan Congress President, Govind Singh Dotasara, who is also the candidate from Mahua for the upcoming Assembly elections. The raid was conducted as part of the investigation for money laundering into the alleged exam paper leak case. The ED also summoned Rajasthan CM’s son, Vaibhav Gehlot for investigation in the FEMA case.
- Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot wrapped up his campaign trail in Sardarpura and met the 3-time MLA from Soorsagar, Suryakanta Vyas who has not been given a ticket this time. Gehlot claimed that BJP failed to show respect and grace to such an experienced leader like Vyas and while it has given tickets to other candidates of the same age as that of Vyas, Vyas was targeted as she praised the good works of Gehlot.
- BJP suffers from protests raised by ticket aspirants who were not given a ticket. Protests were witnessed in Sriganganagar, Udaipur, Rajsamand, Bikaner, Kota, Jaipur, Alwar, Chittorgarh, and Bundi and many disgruntled leaders have threatened to contest independently and have the backing of their followers.
- Congress announced the second list of candidates which include 43 candidates and is facing trouble in over 6 seats, out of the total of 76 candidates announced so far. While BJP is facing issues in over 10 seats out of the total of 124 seats it declared until now.
- The Election Commission has changed the poll date to November 25th from November 23rd due to large scale weddings scheduled in Rajasthan. The date of counting, December 3rd, remains unchanged.
Rajasthan Opinion Poll 2023: Latest Opinion Polls
ABP News C Voter Survey
- BJP: 114-124 seats
- Congress: 67-77 seats
- Others: 5-13 seats
The survey gives a region-wise seat projection:-
- Marwar: Out of 61 seats, BJP to win 35-39, Congress 19-23 and others 2-4 seats only
- Dhundhad: BJP and INC will witness a very close contest here. Out of 58 seats, BJP is expected to win 25-29 seats and Congress is expected to win 27-31 seats and others are expected to win either no seats or a maximum of 4
- Mewar: Out of 43 seats, BJP to lead in 31-35 seats while Congress is expected to lead in 5-9 seats and others would wretch only 2-4 seats.
- Shekhawati: Out of 21 seats, BJP to win an estimated 10-14 seats while the Congress is projected to win in 10-14 seats. Others would win only 2-4 seats
- Hadoti: Out of 17 seats, 12-16 is in the hands of BJP to win while only 1-5 seats will be won by Congress.
Compared to previous election of 2018, both Congress and BJP to gain in their vote share and in terms of projected seat wins, the BJP is expected to register a significant triumph. BJP is to win 114-124 seats with 44.8% of votes while INC will win 67-77 seats with 41.7% of votes.
The survey gauged the present public pulse to understand the approval or satisfaction with the performance of the Chief Minister, whereby around 49.2% of the respondents express anger with Gehlot and want a change of the government, while 45.5% of the respondents were fine with the Gehlot government. In fact, the public preference for the post of the Chief Minister is as follows:-
- Ashok Gehlot: 40.7%
- Vasundhara Raje: 24.7%
- Sachin Pilot: 10.5%
India TV-CNX Opinion Poll
- BJP: 125 seats
- Congress: 72 seats
- Others: 3 seats
The survey gives region wise seat projections where BJP is expected to win in the following pattern:-
- Tonk-Kota: Out of 24 seats, BJP to win 13, Congress 11 seats
- Jaipur-Dholpur: Out of 48 seats, BJP to win 28, Congress 19, and others 1 seat only.
- Marwar: Out of a tally of 56 seats, BJP to win 40 seats, Congress 15 seats and other’s 1 seat only
- Shekhawati: Out of 24 seats, BJP and Congress will win 12 seats each
- Mewar: Out of 48 seats, BJP to win 32 seats, Congress 15 and others 1 seat only.
Moreover, the preference for CM is as follows:-
- Ashok Gehlot: 32%
- Vasundhara Raje: 27%
- Sachin Pilot: 12%
- Gajendra Singh Shekhawat: 10%
- Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore: 8%
- Diya Kumari: 3%
- Others: 7%
The survey was conducted with respondents involving cobblers, barbers, daily wage labourers, tailors, petty shopkeepers, migrant labourers, taxi and auto drivers, real estate agents, medical practitioners, etc.
In a survey conducted by the Dainik Bhaskar app for all 200 seats in Rajasthan, it has been revealed that the people in Rajasthan do not prefer the current government’s 32% ministers and 44% of Congress-BJP legislators as candidates for the upcoming Assembly elections. Among those not preferred, approximately 40% are Congress legislators and 50% are BJP legislators. Independent legislators are not included in this data.
- BJP: 44.8%
- Congress: 41.7%
[CVoter 2018 Opinion Poll error, BJP: +1.7%, Congress: 8.6%]
- Ashok Gehlot: 35%
- Vasundhara Raje: 25%
- Sachin Pilot: 19%
- Gajendra Singh Shekhawat: 9%
- Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore: 5%
In the ABP News-CVoter opinion poll, 35% of the people have expressed Ashok Gehlot as their first preference for the Chief Minister’s position, while 25% of the people prefer Vasundhara Raje as their first choice. Sachin Pilot holds the third position with support from 19% of the people. BJP leader Gajendra Singh Shekhawat is in the fourth position with 9% support, and Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore is in the fifth position with 5% support.
Small Box India
- BJP: 37.0%
- Congress: 43.0%
[Small Box India has no previous track record in Rajasthan]
|Average (Nov 16th)||113||76|
|Ground Zero Research||118||76|
|Small Box India||103||81|
[Small Box and Ground Zero Research has no previous track record in Rajasthan] Seats of others have not been included
Times Now Navbharat-ETG Opinion Poll (Lok Sabha 2024)
- BJP+: 20-22 seats
- Congress+: 2-3 seats
Based on a survey conducted from June 26 to July 25, which captured the opinions of 14,085 adults across the state, the BJP is anticipated to claim a victory with a range of 109 to 119 seats, commanding a vote share of 45.8 percent. Conversely, the incumbent Congress government is estimated to secure 78 to 88 seats, carrying a vote share of 41 percent. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is projected to potentially secure 0 to 2 seats, forecasting a vote share of 0.7 percent. Meanwhile, the ‘Others’ category is expected to win 1 to 5 seats, with an estimated vote share of 12.5 percent.
Rajasthan Elections 2023 Opinion Poll: Election Date and Schedule
The Election Commission (EC) announced that the Rajasthan assembly election will be held in a single phase. All 200 assembly seats will go to polls on November 23, 2023. The counting of votes will be done on December 3, along with Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Mizoram and Telangana.
During the 2018 Rajasthan assembly elections, the voting occurred in a sole phase on December 7, 2018, and the counting of votes took place on December 11, 2018.
Rajasthan Elections 2023 Opinion Poll: Electoral Issues
As per a survey conducted by ABP-CVoter, the public of Rajasthan has stressed the following factors ahead of the upcoming assembly elections.
- Inflation: 28%
- Unemployment: 27%
- Corruption: 10%
- Basic Amenities: 5%
- Other Issues: 30%
There are several crucial issues for the people of Rajasthan, and they want to support those who can fulfill them. In Rajasthan’s budget, Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot initiated various schemes in an attempt to appease the public, while the opposition also began efforts to attract the public towards them by making several claims. However, before the elections, it’s essential to understand the most significant concern identified by the common people of Rajasthan.
ABP and C-voter surveys aimed to determine the issue that impacts every resident of Rajasthan and which issue can make a leader the representative of the people. When this question was posed to the state’s residents, it became evident that there are around four main problems for which the people seek solutions from their government. 28% of the respondents indicated that inflation is the most substantial issue this time. Meanwhile, 27% of individuals believe that they would prefer to vote for the party that discusses unemployment and provides a resolution for it. Additionally, 10% of the public is concerned about corruption, and 5% of the respondents stated that strengthening basic amenities in the state is also a significant issue. Apart from these, 30% of the population also considers other issues like women’s safety, and basic utilities like electricity and water as crucial matters.
Some of the most concerning public issues in the state of Rajasthan can be elaborated as follows:-
Water Scarcity : When discussing Rajasthan, it’s impossible to overlook the issue of water scarcity. Rajasthan holds the distinction of being India’s largest state in terms of land area, encompassing 11% of the country’s total landmass. However, it receives a mere 2% of the national water supply. The state’s water shortage primarily stems from the absence of major rivers capable of meeting the water needs of its population, compounded by the presence of the arid Thar Desert. A 2014 report titled “Water Scarcity in Jaipur,” published by Northwestern University sheds light on the water challenges faced by the state capital, Jaipur, where there is a daily deficit of 90 million liters of water. If this is the situation in the capital, one can only imagine the predicament in other cities. Various urban centers, such as Pali, Jodhpur, and Sirohi, are grappling with severe water scarcity issues.
Paper Leaks: Rajasthan has unfortunately emerged as a hotspot for paper leaks, causing considerable anguish and frustration among the state’s young population. Since 2011, a total of 26 instances of paper leaks have come to light in Rajasthan, with 14 of them occurring during the tenure of the Gehlot government. To put it differently, on average, there have been about three leaked examinations every year. The recent controversy surrounding the REET examination has garnered significant attention, with Deputy Chief Minister Sachin Pilot accusing Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot of not taking action on the alleged examination leaks within their own party. In response, the Gehlot government has asserted that the police and the Special Operations Group (SOG) have arrested and pressed charges against 90% of those involved in the REET examination leaks.
Examination leaks represent a significant blemish on the Gehlot government’s record. These incidents not only deprive aspiring candidates of job opportunities but also intensify their distress when they prepare diligently for an examination only to discover it has been compromised. The REET examination, for instance, was leaked on February 25, 2023, with a similar incident occurring in 2021.
Opposition parties are capitalizing on this issue to criticize the Gehlot government, and a significant portion of the state’s youth is dissatisfied with Gehlot’s leadership.
Insufficient Power Supply and high rates of electric consumption: The citizens of Rajasthan do not receive free units of electricity in many parts of the state as promised by the Gehlot led Congress government. In fact, the surcharge has been enhanced from 8% earlier to 13% at the moment thereby making the life of the voters difficult. Moreover, insufficient supply of power adds to the issue of limited availability of water for drinking and irrigation.
High Unemployment: Rajasthan is the state with the second highest unemployment rate in the country, standing at a whopping 28.5%, just behind Haryana which stood at around 37.4% until December, 2022, as against the national average of 7.3% only. Even though it is the land of the Marwari community who have been running successful businesses since generations in many parts of the country, yet the lack of innovation and entrepreneurship in the changing times of digital technology has rendered the youth jobless and are forced to migrate to other parts of the country for seeking jobs. A CAG Report tabled at the Assembly recently reported that only 37.45% of the placements provided between 2014-17 by Rajasthan Skill and Livelihoods Development Corporation were genuine.
Farm Distress: Almost 60% of the farmers in Rajasthan depend on agriculture for their livelihood. Issues such as falling prices of crops, weak crop procurement methods of the government, low MSP, and bumper crops bought at record low prices from farmers, etc., are the reasons many famers have committed suicides. Only recently in the Mehengayi Rahat Shivir or Camps that farmers could enroll for benefiting from free 2000 units of electricity per month for Agricultural Consumers/Farmers and livestock insurance of INR 40, 000 for livestock farmers.
Law and Order Situation: The NCB data reveals that Rajasthan suffers from increasing crimes against women. When it came to rape or attempt to rape cases, there was a drastic increase of around 50% between 2018-19 in the initial days of the Congress government. The state stands 4th in the country, in crimes against women category. Even though the government had passed a bill for death penalty for rape of minor girls in 2018, yet the poor implementation of the law by the state government and its agency has resulted in the poor plight of Rajasthani minors and women.
Silicosis issue among workers: Rajasthan has the highest number of mining leases in India, the majority of them being sandstone mines and quarries in the unorganized and small-scale sector. The problem of Silicosis has grown to epidemic levels in the state where over 11 thousand cases were registered between 2018-2023 in the district of Jodhpur alone. The state recorded around 48, 448 silicosis cases of which only 31, 869 cases were certified to receive compensation.
Eastern Rajasthan Canal Project (ERCP) – A Major Political Card?
- Background – Rajasthan which is the largest state in the country in terms of area and size, holds only 1,72% of groundwater and 1.16% of surface water. The Chambal River basin only in Rajasthan has surplus water which can be tapped only with the help of diversion structures, linking channels, interbasin water transfers, construction of pumping main feeder channels. This is due to the fact that the basin is situated around the Kota barrage and is designated as a crocodile sanctuary.
- Aim – The aim of the project is the harvesting of surplus water available during monsoons in the river of Chambal and its tributaries such as Kunnu, Kalisindh, Parvati, Mej, and Chakan and use the excess water to divert to water deficit basins of Banganga, Banas, Gmabhiri and Parbati sub-basins in south eastern districts of Rajasthan, for the purpose of irrigation and drinking to meet the drinking and industrial water needs for humans and livestock until 2051.
- Coverage – The proposal is to make provisions of drinking water supply to 13 districts of Rajasthan and irrigation water facilities for covering 2.82 lakh hectares of land with the help of 26 large and medium projects. The districts are alwar, Ajmer, Baran, Bundi, Bharatpur, Dholpur, Dausa, Jaipur, Jhalawar, Karauli, Kota, Sawai Madhopur and Tonk. The project will also cover 0.6 million hectares of land in Madhya Pradesh.
- Benefits – It will be able to bring greater area of land under irrigation and improve the levels of ground water in rural areas, thereby enhancing the socio-economic conditions of the people and benefiting around 2.6 million farmers in Rajasthan alone and 2.4 million farmers in Madhya Pradesh. The project also will lay a special emphasis on the Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC) for revenue and investment generation.
- Costs – Initially conceived as an INR 40, 451 crore project which has enhanced to around INR 51, 000 crore.
- Process – The project is supposed to be completed in 3 phases within a span of 7 years. It involves the construction of two canals namely, the Chambal Canal which originates from the Chambal river, and East Rajasthan Canal, originating from the Mahi river.
- Issue – ERCP did not fulfil the criteria laid down for the inclusion under the National projects scheme of the Ministry of Jal Shakti. This is due to the fact that the project is planned on 50% dependable yield against the established norm of 75% dependability. This is the reason the GOI had issues to include it under the national Projects Scheme and approve the same since November, 2017 when the Government of Rajasthan under the leadership of CM Vasundhara Raje had submitted the project for techno-economic appraisal.
- Latest Status – The Special Committee for Interlinking of Rivers approved the proposal of considering the modified Parbati-Kalisindh-Chambal (PKC) link project to be integrated with ERCP as part of the National Perspective Plan in 2022. The framework for preparing the Detailed Project Report of modified PKC link has been finalized and declared the phase-I of the project as a priority interlinking project.
- Congress Demand – CM Ashok Gehlot wants a national status for the project as he expressed the inability of the state government to bear the huge cost of the project alone. Therefore, if declared a national project, 90% of the cost of the project will be borne by the Centre while 10% only will be borne by the state government. According to Gehlot, water is a state subject and any discriminatory attitude of the Central government towards stopping the ongoing work on the project will deprive the people of Rajasthan of water for drinking and irrigation. Hence, the sudden halt to the ongoing work due to issues raised by the Government of Madhya Pradesh in 2022 amounted to a threat to cooperative federalism. He accused Union Jal Shakti Minister, Gajendra Singh Shekhawat of creating hindrances in the implementation of the project. This is the reason the central think tank of the Congress has designed a strategy of highlighting the issue and initiating the ‘Jal Yatra’ in September, 2023.
- BJP Position – The ERCP project was initiated by CM Vasundhara Raje during her tenure. PM Modi had promised to declare ERCP as a national project during his public rallies before the 2018 Assembly election, but the promise has not been fulfilled yet. Sekhawat has been maintaining silence over the issue.
Rajasthan Elections 2023 Opinion Poll: Google Trends and Social Media Sentiments
- BJP: 55% (2018 November: 46%)
- Congress: 44% (2018: 54%)
Social Media Sentiments
- BJP: -34.7%
- Congress: -16.1%
Who is the CM face for BJP this time?
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has not yet announced its candidate for the position of Chief Minister (CM) in the upcoming Rajasthan Assembly elections. However, there are around 8 faces now even though Vasundhara Raje previously served as the CM of Rajasthan from 2003 to 2008 and then again from 2013 to 2018.
Vasundhara Raje: BJP’s national vice president Vasundhara Raje Scindia has been the Chief Minister of Rajasthan twice. She has been a 5-time MLA and has also been a 5-time Lok Sabha MP from Rajasthan. Vasundhara Raje has also been the Minister of State for External Affairs and Small Scale Ministry in the Central Government. He is currently the MLA from Jhalrapatan in Jhalawar. Before CM Gehlot, Vasundhara Raje had been the Chief Minister in the BJP government of the state. Therefore, naturally she is a strong contender for the post of Chief Minister.
Diya Kumari: Diya Kumari is the MP from Rajsamand who has been fielded as the BJP candidate from Vidhayadhar Nagar seat of Jaipur, denying ticket to 5-time MLA and Raje loyalist, Narpat Singh Rajvi, son-in-law of Bhairon Singh Shekhawat. Kumari like Raje also hails from the royal family and is a member of the erstwhile Jaipur royal family. He grandfather was Man Singh II, the last ruler of Jaipur and her father was the former titular king of Jaipur, Bhawani Singh. Her step grandmother and former queen of Jaipur, Gayatri Devi was also an elected MP in the past. Her importance in the BJP has been on the rise as she has been given a place in the BJP state executive as a General Secretary. She has addressed press conferences, meets workers, led protests, etc and was brought into the political space by Vasundhara Raje herself.
Rajendra Rathod: Rajendra Rathod, who was made the Leader of Opposition in Rajasthan Assembly, is now leading the BJP legislature party. PM Narendra Modi, National President JP Nadda and Union Home Minister Amit Shah have made him the Leader of Opposition from Deputy Leader. He is a 7-time MLA. At present he is representing Churu assembly constituency. Rajendra Rathod is also an advocate, he himself advocated the matter of mass resignation of Gehlot camp MLAs and filed a PIL in the High Court.
Gajendra Singh Shekhawat: Union Jal Shakti Minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat is also seen as the CM face. Gajendra Singh also comes from Rajput community on the lines of late Bhairon Singh Shekhawat. His family originally hails from Shekhawati, but lives and settles down in Jodhpur. Gajendra Singh Shekhawat defeated CM Ashok Gehlot’s son Vaibhav Gehlot in the last Lok Sabha election when he was the Chief Minister. Gajendra Singh has been touring Rajasthan almost every month and sometimes every week. He especially camps in Jodhpur during weekends and holidays and has also been participating in core committee meetings and movements in the capital Jaipur. Shekhawat also conducts public hearings in Rajasthan. Gajendra Singh, being in the Union Cabinet, is in direct touch with the top leadership of BJP. He regularly meets and talks with PM Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Party President JP Nadda. Being from Jodhpur, he also keeps giving feedback about CM Gehlot and Rajasthan to the Centre.
Satish Poonia: Assembly’s Deputy Leader of Opposition Satish Poonia has been a former state president. For the last 3 years and 7 months, he has handled the organization of BJP in Rajasthan very well. Satish Poonia belongs to a Jat farmer family and is associated with business. He had raised the party’s organization to 48 thousand booths out of 52 thousand in Rajasthan. District, Shakti Kendra, Mandal, Panna Pramukh campaigns were strengthened. Poonia is a BJP MLA from Amer, Jaipur. The biggest hurdle in Satish Poonia’s bid as CM face is that Vasundhara Raje camp is against him. Poonia is only a one-time MLA, while MLAs much senior to him are present in Rajasthan. All other leaders are senior to Poonia.
Arjunram Meghwal: Minister of State in the Ministry of Culture and Parliamentary Affairs, is a Lok Sabha MP from Bikaner, a canal region of Rajasthan. Arjunram Meghwal is a former IAS officer. He has also made his mark as a minister by living simply and reaching Parliament on a bicycle in the past. Arjunram Meghwal comes from Dalit Meghwal community. He is seen as the CM face from SC category in BJP. Meghwal is also included in BJP Rajasthan Core Committee.
Kirodilal Meena: BJP’s Rajya Sabha MP Dr. Kirodilal Meena is not only a politician but also a doctor. Kirodilal Meena had been a minister in the previous Vasundhara Raje government. His wife Golma Devi has also been a minister in the past. In Eastern Rajasthan, Dr. Kirori Lal Meena is well recognized as a strong leader and agitator. He has been agitating on youth issues, paper leaks, fee collection during the Covid period, unemployment and unemployment allowance, issues of tribal, Dalit society, water-electricity, farmers issues. Thousands of people gather in the rallies and meetings of Dr. Kirodilal Meena. he is also perceived as a strong leader from the farming community.
Om Birla: Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla has been elected MP twice. He is originally from Kota and is the current MP from Kota-Bundi Lok Sabha constituency. Om Birla has previously served as MLA thrice in the Rajasthan Assembly and once as Parliamentary Secretary. Birla has been the state president and national vice president of Bharatiya Janata Yuva Morcha. Birla comes from Vaishya class. He has a strong influence among businessmen and common people. Om Birla is counted among those can bring all in one platform.
Ashwini Vaishnav: The name of Union Railway Minister Ashwini Vaishnav is also being counted among the contenders for CM face. Because Ashwini Vaishnav is also originally a resident of Jodhpur, Rajasthan. He is a Brahmin face. Recently, in the big conference of Brahmin community held in Jaipur, Ashwini Vaishnav was among the top leaders present on the stage. The demand for a Brahmin Chief Minister and political representation was also raised from the stage. Rajasthan has received the highest railway budget so far when Ashwini Vaishnav was the Railway Minister.
Congress Election Promise
The Congress party in Rajasthan has announced that:-
- Financial assistance of INR 10, 000 to women heads of families per annum
- Cooking gas cylinder at INR 500 to 1.05 crore families
- Free electricity for upto 100 units and a fixed rate for the next 100 units
Reasons for strong Anti-Incumbency for Congress: Public Opinion
- The citizens do not avail free electricity (100 units) as promised by the Congress govt. The surcharge has increased from 8% to 13% now.
- After lockdown, business environment has collapsed – While B.A and M.A pass graduates are unemployed, small businesses have been facing destruction. Hence they term the ruling dispensation as one doing timepass only.
- Corruption is rampant as even today a simple task in the Tehsil office requires bribery of a minimum of 100. Only then files move.
- People claim that the Gehlot government has stopped giving Wheat ration of 5 kg each at INR 2 only. Only the Centre under Modi is giving wheat while the state government under Gehlot is giving nothing.
- Caste communities claim that even though Caste groups have been made by Congress, neither of its members have been appointed nor have they been elected.
- Instead of giving jobs, cases under Section 133 were imposed on the unemployed youth protesting against job crisis by the present government. Youth have been demanding to fill positions of technical helpers as announced in the Budget, hold tests for over 2000 posts under PRI, and hold tests for Junior Accountant vacancies. Since 2018, it has been alleged that Gehlot led government has not recruited Civil Engineers in Junior categories.
- Even though tests were held for teachers, constables and lower division clerks, all were put off due to question paper leaks thereby jeopardizing the future of the youth of Rajasthan.
Rajasthan Elections Opinion Poll 2023: Will BJP come back to Power?
Rajasthan has followed a pattern of voting against the existing government since 1998. In 2018, the Congress benefited from this trend, but by 2023, the Congress could find itself on the other side of this pattern. Unfortunately for Ashok Gehlot’s administration, it hasn’t gained much popularity to break this recurring cycle. A significant amount of time and effort for him and his ministers has been spent on managing internal disagreements led by Pilot, which has taken a toll on effective governance. Adding to the BJP’s advantage, the difference in votes between them and the Congress was just 1% in 2018.
If the BJP can sway 4–5% of the votes in its favor, amassing 40% of the total votes and keeping the Congress under 35%, it could easily secure over 120 seats.
The main concern for the BJP’s leadership in Rajasthan is the matter of leadership itself. The higher-ups in the BJP wish to move past Vasundhara Raje and introduce new leadership. The diminishing influence of Vasundhara Raje has given rise to multiple centers of power within the Rajasthan BJP, including Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, Bhupender Yadav, Sunil Bansal, and Satish Poonia.
Raje loyalists felt betrayed as they were not given tickets by BJP while the first list was announced. Some of them are Anita Singh Gurjar from Nagar Assembly, Bhawani Singh Rajawat, MLA Narpat Singh Rajvi, Rajpal Singh Shekhawat, Vikas Choudhury. However, inorder to mollify Raje and her supporters, around 25-30 Raje loyalists have been given tickets in the 2nd list. Narpat Singh Rajvi has been accommodated in Chittorgarh, while others such as Pratap Singh Singhvi in Chhabra, Kalicharan Saraf in Malviya Nagar, Jaipur, Vasudev Devnani (Ajmer North), Otaram Dewasi from Sirohi, Anita Bhadel from Ajmer South, Siddhi Kumari in Bikaner East, Ramswaroop Lamba in Nasirabad, Hem Singh Bhadana in Thanagazi and Santosh Ahlawat have also been given tickets respectively. While Raje will contest from Jhalrapatan which she has been winning since 2003.
Rajasthan Elections Opinion Poll 2023: Can Congress avoid another Infighting?
Congress in Rajasthan has always been infested with feuds and internal rivalry, right from the major Gehlot-Pilot rivalry to the recent issue of Rajendra Guda of Udaipur, who was removed from the Cabinet post recently and has claimed to have been harassed and beaten by party leaders and workers. He has a Red diary accusing almost 60 leaders of the Congress of rape and harassment against women and with drug abuse.
The need of the hour for Congress is to balance between internal feuds and rivalries and handle the disgruntled leaders who have not been offered a ticket for the assembly elections 2023.
Rajasthan Elections Opinion Poll 2023: Caste-based Demands
Jats: of Rajasthan want adequate representation of the Jat community in state politics. They have been asking for electing atleast 50 MLAs of the Jat Community this time, so that a Jat is able to occupy the chair of the CM of the state this time. If BJP is able to promise them this, then they shall unanimously cast vote in favour of BJP only. Jat comprises about 9% of the population of Rajasthan. They directly influence the poll outcome in 50-60 of the 200 Assembly seats. Jats had voted for BJP in 2003 as Vasundhara Raje was projected as the daughter-in-law (Jat ki Bahu) of a Jat family. Jats are mainly dominant in the Shekhawati region which comprises of districts such as Churu, Jhunjhunu, Sikar, and others such as Bikaner, Tonk, Barmer, Jaipur, Ajmer. Jats want a Jat CM this time as they do not want to miss any opportunity this time. Satish Poonia, the Deputy leader of Opposition, is the one prominent Jat leader in BJP while Congress plans to elevate Govind Singh Dotasra as the Deputy CM if Congress comes to power again.
Rajputs: They make up around 6% of the state population, want an increase in the reservation for the Economically Weaker Section from 10% to 14%. Even though the Congress has formed the Veer Shiromani Maharana Pratap Board, it is yet to appoint members to the board. Rajputs hold sway in western Rajasthan. It was the Rajput community which had established the BJP in Rajasthan and thereby they demand to be given their due respect, acknowledgment and credit.
Gujjars: They basically want their inclusion of reservation in the 9th schedule and they also demand for an announcement for a Gujjar Regiment. Gujjar leaders have an angst against BJP for the death of over 70 Gujjars due to police firing during the Gujjar agitation in 2007-08. Sachin Pilot is the face of the community in Rajasthan and BJP needs to bring a face to counter the popularity of Pilot as a representative of the Gujjar community. Although BJP has inducted Gopichand Gurjar from Nagar Assembly constituency which has significant Gujjar votes and others such as retired judge Kishan Lal Gurjar, Adv. Atar Singh Gurjar, Bhagwan Singh Gurjar, yet BJP is missing a popular Gujjar face on the front. They have a say in around the eastern belt of Rajasthan in 30-35 seats Assembly seats. The Gujjars are influential in around 30 seats in the eastern belt including districts of Tonk, Karauli, Hindaun, Dausa.
Meenas: They enjoy the ST Status and have over 500 IPS, IAS and other white-collared job holders. This puts them at loggerheads with Gujjars as Gujjars feel they have very poor political representation. Meenas dominate the eastern belt of Rajasthan along with Gujjars. Along with Meenas, Gujjars comprise of 13% of the state population. Even though Kirodilal Meena came back to BJP, yet Meenas continue to support the Congress irrespective because they feel ignored in the BJP.
Muslims: Muslims of Rajasthan who have been supporting Congress have highlighted that they are demanding a Muslim CM or Deputy CM this time. Since the Congress did not nominate any Muslim for Rajya Sabha elections and no Muslim candidates were considered for the mayoral posts in Jodhpur North, Kota North or Jaipur Heritage elections, hence the community has been waiting anxiously for its golden chance to lead Rajasthan. This is where BJP can fill the gap and put Muslim faces in front before AIMIM in Rajasthan causes any damage to the prospects for BJP among Muslim voters. However, the killings of Junaid and Nasir by the cow vigilante groups have left a deep scar in the hearts and minds of Muslims and they feel ignored by the Congress sarkar. This is the chance of BJP or the central govt to call for an impartial investigation, assure to provide govt jobs to the family members of the two, offer due compensation and control cow vigilante groups to only cater to cows and not mess with human lives.
Mali: Malis are the largest section of population among the OBC category. They are demanding to award Bharat Ratna to Jyotibha Phule and Savitri bai Phule and the installation of their statues in the new Parliament House. They also want a 12 % reservation in jobs and higher education for Saini, Mali, Kushwaha, Shakya, Maurya, Suman, Vanmali, Bhoi Mali communities. Gehlot had created the Mahatma Jyotiba Phule Rashtriya Sansthan to unite the Mali community of Rajasthan during his stint as the Union Textile Minister. Although they are thinly spread across Rajasthan, yet they demand atleast 1 ticket in each district from BJP in Assembly polls and 1 ticket for the Lok Sabha elections.
Brahmins: Brahmins (6.7%) side with BJP as they believe BJP under Modi is the sole protector of the Hindus and Sanatan Dharma. The Rajputs (9.9%) are significant caste group in Rajasthan and are seen to side with Congress owing to the recent fulfilment of their demand by Gehlot of forming a Board for them under the name of Prithivraj Chauhan. The BJP should utilize the Hindu Aan-Baan-Shaan strategy to also eulogize the Rajputs pride in its strategy. The respect of Rajputani women by giving them doles in households and planning programs and schemes in the name of Prithviraj shall help.
Chamars (9.4%), Meena (6.4%) and Bhil (6.1%) are the SC and ST population of the state which sides with the Congress as Congress has built an impression of being the Protector of the Poor and the Helpless over years since the time of Indira Gandhi.
Yadav (3%), Kumhar (2.7%) are siding with BJP. Baba Balaknath has emerged as a strong leader from the Yadav community. And the Matsya region is the political playground for BSP.
Rajasthan Elections Opinion Poll 2023: Close Victory Margins
In electoral politics, the margin of victory serves as a gauge of a candidate’s popularity and the sentiment of the electorate. A slim margin, typically less than five percent, indicates a closely contested seat where each vote is crucial, and a change in allegiance can have a significant impact on the outcome.
India Today’s Data Intelligence Unit (DIU) has gathered and analyzed data on the previous Rajasthan Assembly elections, uncovering intriguing trends in narrow victory margins.
- Congress: In 2018, the Indian National Congress (INC) secured 11% of its victories by a narrow margin, demonstrating the party’s ability to retain loyal voter segments and display resilience.
- BJP: During the 2018 assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured victory in 14% (28) of the seats with a narrow margin. This underscores the party’s ability to sustain its voter support even in challenging conditions.
- Others: Regional parties and independent candidates clinched victory in 4.5% of the seats with a slim margin, underscoring their significance in shaping the state’s political landscape.
Rajasthan Elections Opinion Poll 2023: Summary of Previous Elections
The Legislative Assembly elections in Rajasthan have witnessed a fascinating pattern of alternating victories between the major political parties, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Indian National Congress (INC). These elections have had a significant impact on the state’s political landscape, and as a political pundit, it is intriguing to analyze the trends and outcomes.
In 2008, the BJP, which was the ruling party at the time, faced defeat at the hands of the INC. This victory showcased the Congress party’s ability to connect with the electorate and effectively address the prevailing anti-incumbency sentiments. The INC’s triumph signaled a desire for change among the people of Rajasthan.
However, in 2013, the tables turned, and the BJP, led by Vasundhara Raje, emerged victorious, defeating the Ashok Gehlot-led INC government. The BJP’s victory demonstrated the party’s resilience and its ability to capitalize on the sentiments of the electorate. Vasundhara Raje was being widely hailed as the next incumbent, and the BJP’s win in Rajasthan solidified its position in the state.
The 2018 Legislative Assembly elections brought forth an interesting outcome. The INC emerged as the single largest party with 100 seats but fell short of a majority by only one seat. The BJP secured 73 seats, a significant decline from its previous absolute majority. The INC managed to form the government by joining forces with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).
This election result showcased the power of alliances and the ability of political parties to adapt to the changing dynamics of the electorate. The INC’s victory, albeit with external support, indicated a resurgence of the party’s popularity and the people’s inclination toward a different political alternative.
Region Wise Performance
Among the 61 seats in the Marwad region, 29 seats were won by INC while 24 seats by BJP and the rest were held by other parties.
Harouti region which has 57 seats, 35 were won by INC while only 10 were retained by BJP and the rest 12 were held by other parties.
In the Sekhawati region of 21 seats, around 15 were won by INC while only 4 seats were held by BJP and 2 seats held by other parties.
The Mewar region of 60 seats, has been a hotseat for BJP where they managed to retain 35 seats and the INC held 21 seats only and rest 4 seats were held by others.
Rajasthan Elections Opinion Poll 2023: Constituency Analysis
- District-wise Distribution: The constituencies are spread across multiple districts in Rajasthan, including Ganganagar, Hanumangarh, Churu, Jhunjhunu, Sikar, Jaipur, Alwar, Dausa, Karauli, Bharatpur, Sawai Madhopur, Ajmer, Nagaur, Pali, Jodhpur, Barmer, Jalore, Udaipur, Dungarpur, Banswara, Chittorgarh, Pratapgarh, Bhilwara, Bundi, Kota, Baran, and Jhalawar.
- Reserved Constituencies: There are several reserved constituencies in Rajasthan. These include constituencies reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST). The reserved constituencies ensure representation and political participation for marginalized communities.
- Lok Sabha Constituencies: Each Vidhan Sabha constituency is associated with a corresponding Lok Sabha (Parliamentary) constituency. The Lok Sabha constituencies determine the representation of the region at the national level.
- Elector Strength: The elector strength of each constituency varies, ranging from a few hundred thousand to over three hundred thousand. This indicates the size and diversity of the constituencies in terms of the number of eligible voters.
Rajasthan Elections Opinion Poll 2023: Demography
The state’s population is diverse and multifaceted. According to the 2011 Census of India, Rajasthan had a total population of 68,548,437, accounting for approximately 5.66% of India’s population. With a population density of 201 people per square kilometer, Rajasthan is home to a significant number of individuals.
In terms of gender distribution, Rajasthan had a sex ratio of 928 women per 1000 men in 2011, slightly lower than the national average of 943. This indicates a gender imbalance within the state and highlights the need for continued efforts to address issues related to women’s empowerment and gender equality.
The native Rajasthani people constitute the majority of the state’s population. Additionally, Rajasthan is home to a significant Sindhi population, who migrated from Sindh province (now in Pakistan) during the partition of India and Pakistan in 1947. This adds to the cultural diversity of the state.
Religiously, Hindus form the majority in Rajasthan, comprising 88.49% of the population. Muslims make up 9.07% of the population, while Sikhs and Jains account for 1.27% and 0.91%, respectively. These religious demographics play a crucial role in shaping the social fabric and political dynamics of the state.
When considering the caste composition of Rajasthan, various groups hold significant influence. Brahmins, although their exact percentage varies in different reports, are an important community, constituting a notable portion of the population. Other influential groups include Scheduled Castes (SC) at 18%, Scheduled Tribes (ST) at 13%, Jats at 12%, Gurjars and Rajputs at 9% each, and Meenas at 7%. These caste-based demographics provide insight into the social and political dynamics within Rajasthan.