BJP to Win 112 Seats, INC 80 Seats: Rajasthan Opinion Poll 2023

September 27, 2023

Rajasthan Elections 2023 Opinion Poll: BJP is set to win the upcoming assembly election in Rajasthan as per the polls.

Latest Rajasthan Election Seats Prediction: BJP: 118 seats INC: 76 seats

The upcoming Rajasthan elections, set to take place in December or earlier, have become a crucial battleground for the Congress Momentum. The party is faced with the daunting challenge of anti-incumbency, which adds immense significance to these elections. Building on the momentum gained from their success in Karnataka, the Congress is striving to overcome the odds and secure a victory in Rajasthan.

Meanwhile, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) finds itself in a position where it must make a strong comeback in the state. With the Lok Sabha Elections scheduled for the following year, Rajasthan’s significance is further magnified for the BJP. In the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections, the party had an impressive performance, securing 24 out of the 25 seats in Rajasthan.

Rajasthan Opinion Poll 2023: Who is leading?

Polls: BJP
Google Trends: Bjp
Social Media Sentiment: Congress

Rajasthan Election Latest Developments

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has appointed MP Ramesh Bidhuri as the election in-charge for the Tonk constituency in Rajasthan for the upcoming 2023 Assembly elections. Bidhuri is a member of the Lok Sabha, the lower house of the Indian Parliament, from the South Delhi constituency.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to follow the same strategy as it did in the Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections, where it fielded a large number of MPs and Union ministers as candidates.

Rajasthan Opinion Poll 2023: Latest Opinion Polls

Dainik Bhaskar

In a survey conducted by the Dainik Bhaskar app for all 200 seats in Rajasthan, it has been revealed that the people in Rajasthan do not prefer the current government’s 32% ministers and 44% of Congress-BJP legislators as candidates for the upcoming Assembly elections. Among those not preferred, approximately 40% are Congress legislators and 50% are BJP legislators. Independent legislators are not included in this data.

Vote Shares

ABP-CVoter

BJP: 45.8%
Congress: 41%

[CVoter 2018 Opinion Poll error, BJP: +1.7%, Congress: 8.6%]

Ashok Gehlot: 35%
Vasundhara Raje: 25%
Sachin Pilot: 19%
Gajendra Singh Shekhawat: 9%
Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore: 5%

In the ABP News-CVoter opinion poll, 35% of the people have expressed Ashok Gehlot as their first preference for the Chief Minister’s position, while 25% of the people prefer Vasundhara Raje as their first choice. Sachin Pilot holds the third position with support from 19% of the people. BJP leader Gajendra Singh Shekhawat is in the fourth position with 9% support, and Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore is in the fifth position with 5% support.

Small Box India

BJP: 37.0%
Congress: 43.0%

[Small Box India has no previous track record in Rajasthan]

Seat Estimates

(Voteshare)	BJP	INC
*Average (Sept 27)*	112	80
Ground Zero Research	118	76
ABP-C Voter	114	83
Small Box India	103	81

[Small Box and Ground Zero Research has no previous track record in Rajasthan] Seats of others have not been included

Times Now Navbharat-ETG Opinion Poll (Lok Sabha 2024)

BJP+: 20-22 seats
Congress+: 2-3 seats

Based on a survey conducted from June 26 to July 25, which captured the opinions of 14,085 adults across the state, the BJP is anticipated to claim a victory with a range of 109 to 119 seats, commanding a vote share of 45.8 percent. Conversely, the incumbent Congress government is estimated to secure 78 to 88 seats, carrying a vote share of 41 percent. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is projected to potentially secure 0 to 2 seats, forecasting a vote share of 0.7 percent. Meanwhile, the ‘Others’ category is expected to win 1 to 5 seats, with an estimated vote share of 12.5 percent.

The Rajasthan Assembly Election 2023 is expected to have its voting and counting dates revealed by the Election Commission around October 2023. It is anticipated that the voting process in the state will take place in a single phase. As soon as the Election Commission officially announces the election dates, the Model Code of Conduct will be enforced without delay.

During the 2018 Rajasthan assembly elections, the voting occurred in a sole phase on December 7, 2018, and the counting of votes took place on December 11, 2018. In that particular year, the Election Commission of India had released the election timetable in early October.

As per a survey conducted by ABP-CVoter, the public of Rajasthan has stressed the following factors ahead of the upcoming assembly elections.

Inflation: 28%
Unemployment: 27%
Corruption: 10%
Basic Amenities: 5%
Other Issues: 30%

There are several crucial issues for the people of Rajasthan, and they want to support those who can fulfill them. In Rajasthan’s budget, Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot initiated various schemes in an attempt to appease the public, while the opposition also began efforts to attract the public towards them by making several claims. However, before the elections, it’s essential to understand the most significant concern identified by the common people of Rajasthan.

ABP and C-voter surveys aimed to determine the issue that impacts every resident of Rajasthan and which issue can make a leader the representative of the people. When this question was posed to the state’s residents, it became evident that there are around four main problems for which the people seek solutions from their government. 28% of the respondents indicated that inflation is the most substantial issue this time. Meanwhile, 27% of individuals believe that they would prefer to vote for the party that discusses unemployment and provides a resolution for it. Additionally, 10% of the public is concerned about corruption, and 5% of the respondents stated that strengthening basic amenities in the state is also a significant issue. Apart from these, 30% of the population also considers other issues like women’s safety, and basic utilities like electricity and water as crucial matters.

Some of the other well-known issues in the state of Rajasthan are:

Water: When discussing Rajasthan, it’s impossible to overlook the issue of water scarcity. Rajasthan holds the distinction of being India’s largest state in terms of land area, encompassing 11% of the country’s total landmass. However, it receives a mere 2% of the national water supply. The state’s water shortage primarily stems from the absence of major rivers capable of meeting the water needs of its population, compounded by the presence of the arid Thar Desert. A 2014 report titled “Water Scarcity in Jaipur,” published by Northwestern University sheds light on the water challenges faced by the state capital, Jaipur, where there is a daily deficit of 90 million liters of water. If this is the situation in the capital, one can only imagine the predicament in other cities. Various urban centers, such as Pali, Jodhpur, and Sirohi, are grappling with severe water scarcity issues.

Paper Leaks: Rajasthan has unfortunately emerged as a hotspot for paper leaks, causing considerable anguish and frustration among the state’s young population. Since 2011, a total of 26 instances of paper leaks have come to light in Rajasthan, with 14 of them occurring during the tenure of the Gehlot government. To put it differently, on average, there have been about three leaked examinations every year. The recent controversy surrounding the REET examination has garnered significant attention, with Deputy Chief Minister Sachin Pilot accusing Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot of not taking action on the alleged examination leaks within their own party. In response, the Gehlot government has asserted that the police and the Special Operations Group (SOG) have arrested and pressed charges against 90% of those involved in the REET examination leaks.

Examination leaks represent a significant blemish on the Gehlot government’s record. These incidents not only deprive aspiring candidates of job opportunities but also intensify their distress when they prepare diligently for an examination only to discover it has been compromised. The REET examination, for instance, was leaked on February 25, 2023, with a similar incident occurring in 2021.

Opposition parties are capitalizing on this issue to criticize the Gehlot government, and a significant portion of the state’s youth is dissatisfied with Gehlot’s leadership.

Google Trends

BJP: 65% (2018 November: 46%)
Congress: 35% (2018: 54%)

Social Media Sentiments

BJP: -34.7%
Congress: -16.1%

Is BJP Once Again Settling with Vasundhara Raje as CM Face?

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has not yet announced its candidate for the position of Chief Minister (CM) in the upcoming Rajasthan Assembly elections. However, there is increasing speculation that the party may once again choose Vasundhara Raje as its candidate for CM. Raje previously served as the CM of Rajasthan from 2003 to 2008 and then again from 2013 to 2018.

Some factors favoring Raje to be BJP’s CM face are:

Raje’s Popularity: Raje enjoys significant popularity in Rajasthan and is considered a strong contender for the CM’s position. She has garnered a loyal following among the Rajput community, a crucial voting bloc in the state. Furthermore, Raje has garnered favor among women voters.
The Party’s Allies: The BJP’s allies in Rajasthan, such as the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) and the Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP), have voiced their desire for the party to nominate a CM candidate from the Rajput community. Raje, being a Rajput leader, could potentially meet these demands and satisfy the alliance partners.
The Party’s Internal Dynamics: The BJP faces internal divisions within its ranks in Rajasthan, which could influence the decision on the CM’s face. The outcome of this power struggle may impact the party’s choice of candidate for the position.

Added to it recently Vasundhara Raje has been made one of the star campaigners for the BJP in the upcoming Jharkhand Assembly elections. She has been addressing rallies and roadshows across the state, and she is seen as a key factor in the BJP’s attempt to wrest power from the incumbent Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM). Raje will be touring four Lok Sabha constituencies in Jharkhand to participate in the party’s nationwide outreach to mark the completion of 9 years of the Modi government. This move by BJP is seen as a sign of projecting Vashundara Raje Schindia as the CM face of Rajasthan.

Congress Election Promise

The Congress party in Rajasthan has announced that it will provide free electricity for up to 100 units and a fixed rate for the next 100 units.

Rajasthan Elections Opinion Poll 2023: Will BJP come back to Power?

Rajasthan has followed a pattern of voting against the existing government since 1998. In 2018, the Congress benefited from this trend, but by 2023, the Congress could find itself on the other side of this pattern. Unfortunately for Ashok Gehlot’s administration, it hasn’t gained much popularity to break this recurring cycle. A significant amount of time and effort for him and his ministers has been spent on managing internal disagreements led by Pilot, which has taken a toll on effective governance. Adding to the BJP’s advantage, the difference in votes between them and the Congress was just 1% in 2018.

If the BJP can sway 4–5% of the votes in its favor, amassing 40% of the total votes and keeping the Congress under 35%, it could easily secure over 120 seats.

The main concern for the BJP’s leadership in Rajasthan is the matter of leadership itself. The higher-ups in the BJP wish to move past Vasundhara Raje and introduce new leadership. The diminishing influence of Vasundhara Raje has given rise to multiple centers of power within the Rajasthan BJP, including Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, Bhupender Yadav, Sunil Bansal, and Satish Poonia.

Rajasthan Elections Opinion Poll 2023: Can Congress avoid another Infighting?

The Congress party’s image has been negatively affected on several occasions due to the public conflicts between Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and his former deputy Sachin Pilot. Since the clever Ashok Gehlot foiled their attempt to make Sachin Pilot the Chief Minister last year, the Congress leadership has handled the issue with careful consideration. Several Congress leaders including Mallikarjun Kharge have to intervene to solve the disputes within the party. The party needs to smartly balance the aspirations of both Gehlot and Pilot camps to put up a strong collective fight in the upcoming assembly elections.

If the defiant Pilot depart from the party once more, it could result in the downfall of Congress in the state. His notable sway over the politically potent Gujjar community and the youth holds significant importance. Therefore, in order to enhance the likelihood of reclaiming victory in the state assembly, the Congress party must closely monitor its state leaders to prevent further conflicts.

Rajasthan Elections Opinion Poll 2023: Importance of SC Reserved Seats

Eighteen per cent of the state’s population or 1.2 crore people belong to Scheduled Castes, the eighth highest in India. There are more than 50 castes and sub-castes that fall in the category. The Scheduled Caste (SC) population is distributed throughout the state, with a higher concentration in northern Rajasthan, encompassing districts such as Ganganagar, Hanumangarh, and Bikaner. Western and central regions of Rajasthan also have a substantial SC population and several Assembly seats reserved for SC candidates.

In contrast, southern Rajasthan, including districts like Udaipur, Dungurpur, and Banswara, has a comparatively lower number of SC residents, with only two out of the 35 Assembly seats in this area being reserved for SC candidates. It’s important to note that Scheduled Tribes have a more significant presence in this region.

Rajasthan Elections Opinion Poll 2023: Close Victory Margins

In electoral politics, the margin of victory serves as a gauge of a candidate’s popularity and the sentiment of the electorate. A slim margin, typically less than five percent, indicates a closely contested seat where each vote is crucial, and a change in allegiance can have a significant impact on the outcome.

India Today’s Data Intelligence Unit (DIU) has gathered and analyzed data on the previous Rajasthan Assembly elections, uncovering intriguing trends in narrow victory margins.

Congress: In 2018, the Indian National Congress (INC) secured 11% of its victories by a narrow margin, demonstrating the party’s ability to retain loyal voter segments and display resilience.
BJP: During the 2018 assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured victory in 14% (28) of the seats with a narrow margin. This underscores the party’s ability to sustain its voter support even in challenging conditions.
Others: Regional parties and independent candidates clinched victory in 4.5% of the seats with a slim margin, underscoring their significance in shaping the state’s political landscape.

Rajasthan Elections Opinion Poll 2023: Summary of Previous Elections

The Legislative Assembly elections in Rajasthan have witnessed a fascinating pattern of alternating victories between the major political parties, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Indian National Congress (INC). These elections have had a significant impact on the state’s political landscape, and as a political pundit, it is intriguing to analyze the trends and outcomes.

In 2008, the BJP, which was the ruling party at the time, faced defeat at the hands of the INC. This victory showcased the Congress party’s ability to connect with the electorate and effectively address the prevailing anti-incumbency sentiments. The INC’s triumph signaled a desire for change among the people of Rajasthan.

However, in 2013, the tables turned, and the BJP, led by Vasundhara Raje, emerged victorious, defeating the Ashok Gehlot-led INC government. The BJP’s victory demonstrated the party’s resilience and its ability to capitalize on the sentiments of the electorate. Vasundhara Raje was being widely hailed as the next incumbent, and the BJP’s win in Rajasthan solidified its position in the state.

The 2018 Legislative Assembly elections brought forth an interesting outcome. The INC emerged as the single largest party with 100 seats but fell short of a majority by only one seat. The BJP secured 73 seats, a significant decline from its previous absolute majority. The INC managed to form the government by joining forces with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).

This election result showcased the power of alliances and the ability of political parties to adapt to the changing dynamics of the electorate. The INC’s victory, albeit with external support, indicated a resurgence of the party’s popularity and the people’s inclination toward a different political alternative.

Rajasthan Elections Opinion Poll 2023: Constituency Analysis

District-wise Distribution: The constituencies are spread across multiple districts in Rajasthan, including Ganganagar, Hanumangarh, Churu, Jhunjhunu, Sikar, Jaipur, Alwar, Dausa, Karauli, Bharatpur, Sawai Madhopur, Ajmer, Nagaur, Pali, Jodhpur, Barmer, Jalore, Udaipur, Dungarpur, Banswara, Chittorgarh, Pratapgarh, Bhilwara, Bundi, Kota, Baran, and Jhalawar.
Reserved Constituencies: There are several reserved constituencies in Rajasthan. These include constituencies reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST). The reserved constituencies ensure representation and political participation for marginalized communities.
Lok Sabha Constituencies: Each Vidhan Sabha constituency is associated with a corresponding Lok Sabha (Parliamentary) constituency. The Lok Sabha constituencies determine the representation of the region at the national level.
Elector Strength: The elector strength of each constituency varies, ranging from a few hundred thousand to over three hundred thousand. This indicates the size and diversity of the constituencies in terms of the number of eligible voters.

Rajasthan Elections Opinion Poll 2023: Demography

The state’s population is diverse and multifaceted. According to the 2011 Census of India, Rajasthan had a total population of 68,548,437, accounting for approximately 5.66% of India’s population. With a population density of 201 people per square kilometer, Rajasthan is home to a significant number of individuals.

In terms of gender distribution, Rajasthan had a sex ratio of 928 women per 1000 men in 2011, slightly lower than the national average of 943. This indicates a gender imbalance within the state and highlights the need for continued efforts to address issues related to women’s empowerment and gender equality.

The native Rajasthani people constitute the majority of the state’s population. Additionally, Rajasthan is home to a significant Sindhi population, who migrated from Sindh province (now in Pakistan) during the partition of India and Pakistan in 1947. This adds to the cultural diversity of the state.

Religiously, Hindus form the majority in Rajasthan, comprising 88.49% of the population. Muslims make up 9.07% of the population, while Sikhs and Jains account for 1.27% and 0.91%, respectively. These religious demographics play a crucial role in shaping the social fabric and political dynamics of the state.

When considering the caste composition of Rajasthan, various groups hold significant influence. Brahmins, although their exact percentage varies in different reports, are an important community, constituting a notable portion of the population. Other influential groups include Scheduled Castes (SC) at 18%, Scheduled Tribes (ST) at 13%, Jats at 12%, Gurjars and Rajputs at 9% each, and Meenas at 7%. These caste-based demographics provide insight into the social and political dynamics within Rajasthan.

Madhya Pradesh Opinion Poll 2023

Telangana Opinion Poll 2023