Telangana Opinion Poll 2023: Who will win the Telangana Election?
Telangana Opinion Poll 2023: The ruling Bharat Rastra Samiti is well-positioned to return to power as per the latest poll.
The 119 assembly seats in Telangana will go to polls in the last month of 2023. The incumbent Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao has been the only Chief Minister of the state since its formation in 2014. The current tenure of the assembly will come to an end on January 16, 2024.
The upcoming Telangana assembly election will be one of the most important elections for both the ruling BRS (formerly TRS) and BJP. BJP has been trying to make its presence felt in the state. From delivering an extraordinary performance in the GHMC election to winning a couple of byelections in the state, BJP has been able to place itself as a major force in the state.
For BRS, the election will decide the national ambition of Chief Minister K Chandrashekhar Rao. To make the party sound more national, the Telangana Rashtriya Samiti was renamed to Bharat Rastra Samithi. KCR is trying to project himself as an opposition face for the upcoming Lok Sabha election. If BRS manages to register a resounding victory, his national ambition will receive a major booster.
The exact dates for the upcoming Telangana assembly election are yet to be announced but the state is expected to go to the polls in the last month of 2023.
Telangana Opinion Poll 2023: Who is leading?
- Polls: BRS
- Google Trends: INC
Telangana Opinion Poll 2023: Latest News
- The Telangana government has announced a 32% bonus on the profits of the Singareni Collieries Company Limited (SCCL) for coal workers. This is the highest bonus ever given by the company to its workers. The bonus will be paid to over 44,000 employees and workers under the National Coal Wage Agreement (NCWA) of SCCL.
- The Supreme Court asked the Enforcement Directorate (ED) on Tuesday to not summon BRS leader K Kavitha in the Delhi excise policy case till it hears her plea on November 20.
- Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao (KCR) is likely to hold a final cabinet meeting on September 29, 2023, before the Assembly elections are announced and the model code of conduct comes into force. The meeting is expected to clear a variety of welfare schemes, including an extension of election sops.
The Congress party has announced guarantees for the people of Telangana if it is elected to power in the upcoming assembly elections. The guarantees are:
- Mahalakshmi: ₹2,500 per month financial assistance to women
- Free gas cylinders: Gas cylinders at ₹500
- Free bus travel: Free travel for women on TSRC buses across the state
- Rhythu Bharosa: ₹15,000 annually to farmers and tenant farmers, ₹12,000 annually to agricultural laborers, and a ₹500 bonus for the paddy crop
- Gruha Jyothi: 200 units of free electricity to eligible households
- Indirammma Indlu: House site allocation and ₹5 lakh for those without their own homes, and a 250 sq yards plot for all Telangana movement fighters
- Vidya Bharosa: Vidya Bharosa Cards worth ₹5 lakh to students, and Telangana International Schools to be established in every mandal
- Cheyutha: ₹4,000 monthly pension for the elderly and ₹10 lakh insurance coverage under the Rajiv Arogyasri scheme.
- The Election Commission of India (ECI) is scheduled to visit Telangana on October 3, 2023, to assess poll preparedness ahead of the announcement of the assembly election schedule. The ECI team will be led by Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Rajiv Kumar and will include other senior officials from the commission.
Telangana Opinion Poll: Major Parties and Their Leaders
- Bharat Rashtra Samithi: K Chandrashekhar Rao
- Bhartiya Janata Party: G Kishan Reddy
- Indian National Congress: Revanth Reddy
- AIMIM: Asaduddin Owaisi
Telangana Election Opinion Polls
No major opinion polls have been conducted for the upcoming Telangana Assembly election. However, Small Box India released its poll numbers back in February 2023. The poll numbers by Small Box India are:
- BRS: 46-48 seats
- Congress: 32-34 seats
- BJP: 20-28seats
- AIMIM: 5-6 seats
- Others: 0-3 seats
The poll predicts a hung assembly with BRS as the single largest party followed by Congress. BJP is set to improve its tally in the state as per the poll numbers.
Peoples Survey
According to a survey conducted by Hyderabad-based Peoples Pulse, the Opposition parties, namely the Congress and the BJP, appear to be unable to leverage the anti-incumbency sentiment against the ruling BRS. This situation may create an opportunity for Rao to make a comeback as the Chief Minister of Telangana.
Although there is a notable level of anti-incumbency and dissatisfaction with the BRS government, it doesn’t seem to be strong enough to dislodge the government from power and provide an opportunity for the Opposition parties.
Telangana Election Opinion Polls: Google Trends and Sentiments
BRS vs BJP vs INC (Last 7 Days)
- BRS: 12%
- BJP: 42%
- INC: 46%
KCR vs G Kishan Reddy vs Revanth Reddy
- K Chandrashekar Rao: 81%
- Revanth Reddy: 12%
- G Kishan Reddy: 7%
Is BJP lagging behind?
The BJP, once seen as the leading contender for power in Telangana and a strong challenger to the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) under Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao, finds itself trailing not just in the candidate selection process but also in the preparation of its leaders and cadre for the upcoming battle.
“With only about three months remaining until the assembly elections, this is the time when the party is expected to shift into high gear, organizing public meetings and holding strategy sessions at the booth level. However, for reasons unknown, our party leadership has yet to initiate these activities,” expressed a senior party member.
In contrast, the BRS has already entered election mode, having announced candidates for 115 out of 119 assembly seats on August 21. Party President and Chief Minister KCR commenced the election campaign in Medak just two days later.
Similarly, the Congress has successfully concluded the candidate selection process and has now completed its initial list. This list is anticipated to be officially released following the Congress Working Committee meeting scheduled to take place in Hyderabad on September 16 and 17.
Telangana Opinion Poll 2023: Challenges of BRS
The BRS is encountering an unusual situation of having too many candidates. Congress leaders who joined the BRS after winning, along with their initial candidate who lost, are engaging in online and public disputes. However, the main issue lies in the way the public feels. There is a noticeable difference in opinion based on age groups. The BRS has received strong support from people who are older (above 58 years old), with approval rates of over 70 percent. On the other hand, the party’s popularity is much lower among young people and those in middle age (below 25 years and around 35 percent, respectively). These findings come from various surveys carried out by different political parties and independent groups from May to mid-June.
Telangana Opinion Poll 2023: Can BJP Change Their Fortunes?
In Telangana, the BJP has traditionally held a minor role, securing only seven percent of the vote share in the past two Assembly elections. However, in the recent Hyderabad Municipal Corporation elections, the party exceeded expectations and garnered a substantial portion of the vote.
Furthermore, in certain state by-elections, the BJP has outperformed the Congress in terms of votes received. The party has been steadily gaining ground in the state, and it remains to be seen whether it can sustain this momentum. Notably, Telangana holds significance for the BJP’s plans for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Telangana Opinion Poll 2023: Can Congress come to Power?
The Congress needs to prepare for a tough fight from two powerful contenders- Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). In a three-way competition, the Congress needs to win more than 60 seats out of the total 119 seats in the state assembly to gain control. Nonetheless, the party leaders acknowledge that they need to put in a significant effort to achieve this goal.
A senior leader from the Congress, who didn’t want to reveal their name, mentioned that a recent study by a political consulting firm called Mindshare Analytics, led by Sunil Kanugolu and hired by the party for planning strategies in Telangana, showed that the Congress could easily win 41 assembly seats. In 42 other seats, it would have a tough competition against the BRS and the BJP. In the remaining 36 seats, the party doesn’t have a good chance to win any seats. So, according to the party leader, if the Congress can manage to win at least 20 seats from the second category, it could come into power. These estimates were made based on the facts revealed by the Kanoglu team after the analysis.
In a visible surge, the Congress party is confident that its victory in Karnataka not only managed to counter the BJP’s challenge and establish itself as the main contender but is also narrowing the gap with the ruling BRS (ranging from about 38% to 32% in overall vote share). The party aims to attract older voters from the pink party by highlighting its “five key promises.”
The groundswell of support for the Congress doesn’t primarily stem from its leaders, but rather from a shift in backing from the Dalits, the Reddy community, and Muslims. However, the party is yet to secure a dominant position within the OBC cluster, which enhances its growth but hasn’t reached a definitive scale yet.
Telangana Opinion Poll 2023: Will AIMIM be the Kingmaker?
A resurgent Congress, a declining and struggling BJP, and an apprehensive BRS are not sufficient to fully encapsulate the Telangana narrative. The enigmatic AIMIM, under the shrewd guidance of the astute lawyer and strategist Asaduddin Owaisi, is poised to emerge as the pivotal variable. The number of seats that ‘barrister Saab decides to compete for can have a big impact in Telangana. If he understands what the public wants before others do and makes changes accordingly, it could really help Congress before the voting day.
Telangana Opinion Poll 2023: Impact of TDP
The Telugu Desam Party’s (TDP) decision to contest the upcoming Telangana Assembly elections independently, scheduled for later in the year, has garnered significant attention and sparked curiosity.
TDP President N. Chandrababu Naidu reportedly conveyed during an informal conversation in New Delhi that his party is firmly against forming alliances in Telangana. Instead, they have decided to field candidates in a substantial number of constituencies where the party has a presence. This move has naturally triggered speculations among major political parties about how this decision might affect their chances in the upcoming elections.
Despite the wave of support for the BRS (formerly TRS) in 2018, the party managed to secure 3.5% of the votes.
Telangana Election Opinion Polls: Lok Sabha 2024 Analysis
According to the Opinion Poll conducted by India TV-CNX, Chief Minister KCR’s BRS is likely to face a tough challenge from the BJP in the upcoming Lok Sabha election.
Vote Share
- BRS: 40%
- BJP: 28%
- Congress (INDIA Alliance): 23%
- AIMIM: 9%
Seats
- BRS: 8
- BJP: 6
- Congress (INDIA Alliance): 2
- AIMIM: 1
In a significant development that favors the BJP’s efforts to establish a presence in Telangana, the saffron party is projected to increase its seat count by two in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections compared to its performance in the previous 2019 contest in the southern state. According to the Opinion Poll, the BJP is expected to secure victory in 6 seats.
The Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) is projected to retain its leading position in the state, with a decrease of 1 seat. The BRS is anticipated to win 8 seats with a 40% vote share.
On the other hand, the Congress, which is a member of the I.N.D.I.A. alliance, is expected to come in third place, securing two seats and gaining a voting percentage of 23%.
Once again, Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM is projected to secure only the Hyderabad seat in the upcoming year.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, out of a total of 17 seats, the BJP secured 4, the TRS (now BRS) won 9, the Congress gained 3, and AIMIM secured 1.
Read: Madhya Pradesh Opinion Poll 2023: Will BJP Return to Power Yet Again?
Chhattisgarh Opinion Poll 2023
Telangana Opinion Poll 2023: What Happened in the Last Election?
The last Telangana Assembly election was held on December 8th, 2018. The incumbent Chief Minister of Telangana, K. Chandrashekar Rao dissolved the Telangana Legislative Assembly on September 6, 2018, nine months before the completion of its term. This triggered early elections in the state.
The election was a direct fight between Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) now Bharat Rashtra Samithi and Indian National Congress. The Indian National Congress fought in alliance with Telugu Desam Party.
The election result was declared on 11 December 2018. The ruling TRS registered a thumping victory and was able to increase its tally compared to the last assembly election.
TRS won 88 of 119 seats while INC alliance managed to win only 21 seats with 2 seats being won by TDP. AIMIM won 7 seats while 2 seats were won by the rest of the parties.
| Voteshare | Seats | |
| Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) | 46.9% | 88 |
| Indian National Congress (INC) | 28.4% | 19 |
| All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) | 2.7% | 7 |
| Telugu Desam Party (TDP) | 3.5% | 2 |
| Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) | 7.1% | 1 |
| All India Forward Bloc (AIFB) | 0.8% | 1 |
| Independents (IND) | 3.3% | 1 |
Caste Division in Telangana
| Caste | Population (%) |
| OBC* | 48% |
| Dalits (SCs) | 17% |
| Tribals (STs) | 11% |
| General caste | 23% |
Telangana Voter Base
According to the Election Commission of India’s draft roll for the second Special Summary Revision (SSR), Telangana boasts a total of 3.06 crore voters. This comprises 3,06,42,333 voters, with 1,53,73,066 being male, 1,52,51,797 being female, and 2,133 identifying as the third gender.
Chief Electoral Officer (CEO) Vikas Raj further reported that the overall number of general electors in the state reached 3,06,26,996. Additionally, there are 2,742 Non-Resident Indian (NRI) electors and 15,337 service electors. Among them, there are 4,76,597 young electors aged 18 to 19.
Comparing these figures to the SSR-2023 final roll with a qualifying date of January 1, 2023, the state initially had 2,99,77,659 electors. The subsequent revision added 8,31,520 new electors while removing 1,82,183 electors as part of the continuous roll updating process.