UP Election Opinion Poll 2022: BJP is 245 seats, SP is 136 seats and BSP is 10 seats

UP Election Opinion Poll 2022 (19th Feb 2022): Average prediction for BJP is 245 seats, SP is 136 seats and BSP is 10 seats.
According to Google Search, the Gap between SP and BJP was the lowest since before the 2017 election until the PM’s Farm Bill withdrawal decision. The Gap has increased again after the decision and now it is 38%

5 opinion polls, google search

UP Opinion Poll 2022: Seat Predictions

Bharatiya Janata PartySamajwadi PartyBahujan Samaj PartyCongress
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ABP -C Voter229151125
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The latest opinion polls give BJP a huge advantage over the other parties. Almost every single one of them predicts a BJP victory.

  • Among the 5 latest polls, the highest seats BJP may win is 262 seats while the lowest seats BJP may win is 232 seats.
  • Samajwadi Party is set to improve its 2017 tally. The maximum seats Akhilesh Yadav may deliver for SP and its allies is 162 while the lowest 125.
  • Mayawati’s BSP is set to lose big. Once the power center of Uttar Pradesh, BSP may win maximum 14 seats while the lowest may be 4 seats.
  • Congress on the other hand seems to fail once again. The Priyanka Gandhi magic seems to have not worked in state for Congress. Congress may win at the most 5 seats in the state.

UP Opinion Polls 2022: Latest Crowd Videos

UP Election Opinion Polls 2022: Latest Updates: 28th February

The fifth phase of the Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh was completed yesterday at 6 p.m in that the state recorded 54.98% voting.

On Monday Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed a huge public meeting in UP’s Ballia. In the sixth phase, voting will be held on March 3 in 57 assembly constituencies of 10 districts.

Total five ministers of the CM Yogi Adityanath government will face a tough fight in the sixth phase of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls.

The prominent leaders are Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, Agriculture Minister Surya Pratap Shahi, Education Minister Satish Chandra Dwivedi, Health Minister Jai Pratap Singh, state Ministers Shree Ram Chauhan and Jai Prakash Nishad.

The Election Commission of India on 8th January, declared the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections 2022 schedule, declared voting in seven phases on the following dates: February 10, February 14, February 20, February 23, February 27, March 3 and March 7.

The Uttar Pradesh election results will be declared on March 10, 2022.

UP Election Opinion Poll 2022: Google Search Analysis

2017- 60%, 2019 – 58%, Last 30 days: 55% (Trending Higher)

The BJP has also Dalit voters, specifically Jatav voters loyal to BSP. Nationally, the BJP has been winning the majority of SC-reserved seats in the last two elections. In 2019, it has gained 41% Dalit support at all over India level.

2017- 25%, 2019 – 16%, Last 30 days: 25% (Trending Lower)

The Gap between BJP and SP was 35% in 2017, went up to 42% in 2019, and 38% now. The Gap has reduced to 30% until the PM’s Farm Bill withdrawal decision. This has given BJP a bounce


2017- 4%, 2019 – 2%, Last 30 days: 8% (Trending Lower)

There is a sudden decline in support of BSP which has benefited other parties and the population of SCs (-24%) as the BJP has successfully created a push between Jatavs and non-Jatavs. The BSP risks being reduced to just a Jatav party in 2022. In the 2019 general elections, the BJP achieved 60% of non-Jatav votes.

The current loss of support is mostly shifting towards the SP, which is seen gaining from 22% in 2017 to 31% in 2022 as projected by C-Voter.


2017- 11%, 2019 – 16%, Last 30 days: 10% (Trending Lower)

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UP Election Opinion Poll 2022: Social Media Analysis in Uttar Pradesh, Last 7 Days

BSP: +ve Sentiment: 1%, -ve Sentiment: 4%, Net Negative Sentiment: 2%

BJP: +ve Sentiment: 3%, -ve Sentiment: 9%, Net Negative Sentiment: 5%

SP: +ve Sentiment: 4%, -ve Sentiment: 16%, Net Negative Sentiment: 12%

Congress: +ve Sentiment: 12%, -ve Sentiment: 19%, Net Negative Sentiment: 6%

Daily UP Opinion Poll 2022: Will CM Yogi Adityanath return as Chief Minister?

CM Yogi Adityanath is highly likely to complete 5 years in the next 5-6 months. The question is, will he break the jinx and return as Chief Minister after the next election?

As per the latest ABP C Voter Poll(released on February 7th), the preferred CM Choices of the people of UP are:

  • 43% want Yogi Adityanath to remain in power
  • 33% want Akhilesh Yadav to return
  • 15% want Mayawati to return
  • 4% want to see Priyanka Gandhi as their CM

UP Election Opinion Poll 2022:  3 Reasons why the Opposition parties will struggle to beat the BJP

1. While some regard CM Adityanath as a polarizing figure, he has enjoyed strong support amongst voters in the state. Apart from periodic surveys which show high satisfaction with the CM, the BJP has performed well even in the 2019 election and 2021-22 local elections.

2. None of the current Opposition parties have won anywhere near 35% of the vote in the last 30 years. This is because of the narrow caste and demographic base that each of SP, BSP, and Congress target. Over the last 5 years, all 3 parties have failed to develop leadership that represents the various shades of the UP population.

3. Another way to look at it is through a mix of Leadership development, OBC, and even tokenism, BJP has taken large proportions of the OBC and Upper caste voters along with them. The SP or BSP have failed to find an issue (so far at least) that will make these voters abandon the BJP. 

For example, the UP per capita GDP (Constant currency) has grown by less than 1% in the last 4 years (2017 to 2021), the much-hated (by BJP supporters) Mamata grew Bengal per capita by a whopping 22%. Such stark performance gaps have made a ZERO dent in the popularity of CM Yogi Adityanath, a reflection of how poorly the Opposition has organized themselves over the last 5 years. 

UP Election Opinion Poll 2022: Caste and Religious Mix of UP

UP is not just India’s largest state but the world’s largest subdivision with a population of 200 million people (as per the 2011 census). In fact, if UP was a separate nation it would be the 8th largest in the world.

Due to the importance of caste and religion in the politics in the state, there are many small parties that cater to the interests of castes in a particular region.

  • Hindus – 79.7%
  • Muslims – 19.3%
  • Others – 1%

As the census only records the numbers of Religious Minorities and Scheduled Castes/Dalits, all figures of U.C. and O.B.C.s are just estimations based on sample surveys or made by political analysts

  • UC/General Category Hindus are 20-23%

The 2 largest communities are Brahmins and Thakurs/Rajputs.
There are other UC Communities like Vaishyas and Baniyas(who mostly live in urban areas), Tyagis, Kayasthas, Khatris  and Bhumihars

  • Hindu OBCs are 43-45%

The prominent Hindu OBC communities are 

  • Yadavs – 8-9%,  the largest OBC community in UP
  • Kurmis -4-5 % 
  • Lodh/Lodhi Rajputs – 4%
  • Jats – 2-3%  (live in Western UP)
  • Rajbhar – 2-4 % (live in Eastern UP)
  • Kushwaha/Maurya/ Shakya – (5-6%)
  • Nishad/Mallah – 4-5%

Other OBC communities in the state are Pals, Kashyaps, Prajapatis, Nais, Gujjars, etc

  • SCs are 21.1%

U.P. has the largest SC population in India, most SCs in the state live in rural areas. The prominent SC castes are:

  • Jatavs/Chamars(56% of the total SC population)
  • Pasis (15.9% of the total SC population)
  • Dhobis (6%)
  • Koris (6%)
  • Balmiki/Valmiki (3.3%)
  • Khatiks
  • Dhanuks
  • Muslims are 19.3%

Most Muslims are Sunnis with Shias having a formidable presence in some regions of the state like Lucknow. 
Muslims are generally perceived as a homogeneous vote bank who cast votes en-masse this perception is not true.

Muslims as a community are divided into various sub-groups and based on identity, they can be placed under three categories, Ashraf, Azlaf, and Arzal. If we have to compare to Hindu communities for the sake of general understanding, Ashrafs are similar to UCs, Azlafs to Hindu OBCs, and Arzals to SCs.
Many castes of the latter 2 communities come under the OBC category

UP Election Opinion Poll 2022: Which party is likely to perform well amongst various castes of Uttar Pradesh?

Since the 2014 LS Election, the  BJP has been performing well on Key caste blocks

BJP Dominated blocks

  • Brahmins – 9-11% share – Key rivals – Congress, BSP
  • Rajputs – 7-8% share
  • Other UCs including  Kayasths, Baniyas – 2-4 % share; Key rivals – Congress, SP
  • OBC population excluding Yadavs – 34-36 % share; Key rivals – SP, BSP and other smaller parties
  • STs- 0.1-0.5%

Total BJP Dominated Blocks share = 54%

Blocks where BJP competes well 

  • Non-Jatav Dalits: 9-10%, Key rivals- BSP and SP

Total BJP Strong Blocks share = 63%

BJP needs to win just 65% of these blocks to win the UP election

Non-BJP Opposition Dominated Blocks

  • Jatav/Chamar Dalits: 11-12%; Most likely to vote for BSP, though some youth in Western UP could vote for the Azad Samaj Party of Chandrashekhar Azad
  • Yadavs: 8-9%; 80-90% of the Community is expected to vote for the SP
  • Jats: 2-3%; due to the recent farmer agitations the community which had stood rock solid behind BJP from 2014 has turned against it in large numbers and stands to vote for any prospective SP+RLD alliance
  • Muslims: 19-20%; 90% of the community is expected to vote for non-BJP parties depending upon the constituency and who is more suited to defeat the  BJP. Though the SP is expected to be the first choice of the community in any generic situation

UP Election Opinion Poll 2022: What are the Key Issues?

 – 33% of voters believe Ayodhya is a very important issue for them

– Just like our Bengal data, the number 1 issue is inflation. 45% of respondents felt the Yogi Govt failed on this issue

Track Yogi Adityanath’s CM rating every month, click here

Read: India Lok Sabha Election Prediction 2022

One thought on “UP Election Opinion Poll 2022: BJP is 245 seats, SP is 136 seats and BSP is 10 seats

  1. People say BJP will win over 300+ seats also they also say resignations are by people who may not be given tickets to contest elections

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