Himachal Pradesh Exit Poll 2022: BJP 35, Congress 29
Exit Poll Update
- India Today, Axis My India
- Republic TV
- Zee News
Election Day Update
- 2017(D-1), BJP: 64%, INC: 36%
- 2022 (D-1), BJP: 58%, INC: 42%
- 2022(E-day), BJP: 56% INC: 44%
- E-day shows INC=0 in 2017, hence considering D-1
How did AAP perform on Google?
Compared to Congress, AAP is likely to end with 85% fewer votes (as derived from Google).
Social Media Sentiments
- BJP: -11.8%
- Congress: +21.8%
- AAP: -46%
The Google and Social media data suggests BJP is in trouble. Google is accurate 70% of the time. Congress will hope it is accurate while BJP will hope it is not.
The Himachal Pradesh Assembly Elections are due to happen in the month of November-December 2022.
Incumbent CM Jai Ram Thakur of the Bhartiya Janata Party will lead the BJP in the upcoming election. The main fight will be between the ruling party BJP and its main opposition INC.
Aam Aadmi Party too has entered the contest and was determined to dislodge the ruling BJP government initially but as the election day neared, AAP’s focus shifted to Gujarat more than HP.
The Satta bazaar or betting market, which is illegal in India has Himachal Pradesh Election 2022 Prediction in favor of the ruling BJP. Congress is predicted to be second in the race.
Himachal Pradesh Opinion Poll 2022: Latest Polls
|Average of Polls||Nov 11th|
|Republic TV PMarq|
*Note: Seats of Others have not been included.
Himachal Pradesh Election Observation and Insights
Himachal is one of the few states in India where an incumbent Government has failed to return. And it has been noticed that since the 2017 victory of the BJP in Himachal, BJP has failed to win the by-poll elections or the municipal corporation elections in the state. Added to it, the incumbent Chief Minister, Jai Ram Thakur is not very famous and he will have to depend mostly on the charisma of Modi to win the state once again. Here is a few outcomes of the election as of now:
Polls: The ruling BJP is ahead in polls and almost all the polling agencies have predicted a win for BJP in the state.
Google Trends: Despite being in power, the search volume for Congress has been higher than for BJP in the state. BJP has gained in the last 7 days but they remain behind Congress in terms of search volume.
Social Media Sentiment: The social media sentiment for all three parties including AAP is negative. Congress has slightly better net sentiment while APP has the worst.
Final Verdict: With the entry of AAP in the state, the anti-BJP votes are set to be divided which in turn will help the ruling BJP. Therefore, we predict a win for the ruling BJPin the state.
Opinion Poll Himachal Pradesh 2022: Google Search Trends
Last 7 Days
- BJP: 52%
- INC: 41%
- AAP: 7%
Last 30 Days: BJP: 48%, INC: 45%, AAP: 7%
Himachal Opinion Poll 2022: Social Media Sentiment
Last 7 Days
- BJP: -6.7%
- Congress: 11.6%
- AAP: -10.3%
Opinion Poll Himachal Pradesh 2022: Demographics of the State
95% of the state is Hindu with 2% being Muslims and Sikhs and Buddhists comprising 1% each.
Opinion Poll Himachal Pradesh 2022: Caste Composition of the State
Rajputs are 32% of the State and the most powerful community in it. Since Independence the state has only seen 6 Chief Ministers with 5 of them belonging to the Rajput Community, their population is uniform throughout the small state.
Brahmins are 18% of the State
The Brahmin community too has no shortage of leaders in the state like Shanta Kumar(ex-CM), Anand Sharma (ex-Union Minister and present Rajya Sabha MP, Congress Party), and JP Nadda(Head of the BJP).
Till now Brahmins have only played the role of kingmaker in the state
OBCs : 13.52%
More than 55% of the hill state’s OBC population lives in the Kangra region of the state. The community dominates in 18 assembly segments across the state, and nine of these are in Kangra alone.
SCs : 25.22%
Only second to Rajputs in terms of number but nowhere close to them in political power. There are about 56 Dalit Communities in the state
- These 4 castes comprise at least 75% of the state’s SC population.
- Koris are the largest SC Caste (8%)
- Jatavs/Chamars are the second-largest Caste
- Other SC castes are Valmikis, Halis, and Dooms who together are 10% of the state’s SC population
They mostly live in the mountainous areas bordering China
Seats have been reserved for STs and SCs in the assembly in accordance with their population
Himachal Pradesh Opinion Polls 2022: What Happened In Lok Sabha 2019?
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, BJP got all 4 seats while Congress got nothing. BJPs vote share was also 69% while Congress got only 27.30% vote share. BJP saw an increase in vote share of about 16% while Congress saw their vote share go down about 14% as compared to the 2014 Lok Sabha election.
Talking about the assembly segments, in 2019 BJP led in all 68 assembly seats while Congress was distant second in almost all the seats.
Himachal Pradesh Election 2022 Prediction: Result of the Last Election
The 2017 Himachal Pradesh Assembly election was fought on the 5 years of the rule of Congress under Chief Minister Veerbhadra Singh. The election turned out to be one-sided. Incumbent Congress was replaced by BJP in Himachal Pradesh. BJP won 44 seats out of 68 while Congress got 21 seats out of 68.
BJP saw an increase in its vote share of about 10% while Congress’s vote share went down by 1.11%. The total Vote share for BJP was 49% while Congress got 42% vote share. Jai Ram Thakur was sworn in as the Chief Minister.
However, BJP contested the election under the leadership of Prem Kumar Dhumal but he lost his own seat in Sujanpur. Instead of crowing PK Dhumal as CM and going for a by-election in 6 months, BJP chose Jai Ram Thakur as Chief Minister. Jai Ram Thakur had won from the Seraj constituency.
Himachal Pradesh Opinion Poll 2022: Comparison between 2012 and 2017 Election Result
As compared to the 2012 Himachal Pradesh assembly election, BJP made a massive gain in 2017 while Congress saw massive losses on all fronts. In 2012 Congress formed the Government after winning 36 seats out of 68 while the BJP got 26 seats out of 68 becoming the main opposition party. Virbhadra Singh was sworn in as the Chief Minister of INC. In 2017 Congress lost its power as the BJP came to power after winning 44 seats out of 68 while the Congress got 21 seats out of 68, becoming the main opposition party.
In terms of vote share, BJP increased its vote share by 10.33% which is 48.8% while the vote share of Congress saw a decline of 1.11%.
Opinion Poll Himachal Pradesh 2022: How accurate were the Opinion Polls and Exit Polls in 2017?
In 2017, for the Himachal Pradesh Assembly election, almost all the Opinion and Exit Polls predicted a win for BJP. The numbers published by most of the polls were somewhat accurate with respect to the final result.
Here is what Opinion Polls had predicted:
India Today My Axis gave 43 – 47 seats to BJP with 49% vote share, 21-25 seats to INC with 38% Vote share, and 0-2 seats to others with 13% vote share.
ABP News-CDS poll gave 39-45 seats to BJP with 47% vote share, 22-28 seats to INC with 41% vote share
C Voter gave 52 seats to BJP with 50% vote share, 15 seats to INC with 37% vote share, 1 seat to others with 11% vote share.
Here are the Exit Poll numbers for the Himachal Pradesh Assembly election 2017:
ABP News- CDS: BJP 35-41 with 45% vote share, INC 26-32 with 42% vote share, others 0-2 seats with 13%
India Today-Axis: BJP 47-55 with 50% vote share, INC 13-20 with 41% vote share, others 0-1 seat with 9% vote share
C Voter gave 41 seats to BJP, 25 seats to INC and 1 seat to others.
Himachal Pradesh Opinion Poll: Final Verdict
The political fight in Himachal Pradesh is predicted to be close to one. Himachal has been of the few states where the Government has changed after 5 years. Some of those states apart from Himachal were Uttarakhand, Rajasthan, and Kerala.
In Kerala, in 2021 the CPIM-led Government came back to power and broke the streak, and in Uttarakhand, BJP did the same in 2022.
The Himachal Pradesh Opinion Polls have also indicated the end of the streak as the latest Himachal Pradesh Opinion Polls have been in favor of the ruling BJP despite the BJP Government led by Jairam Thakur being unpopular in the state.