Google based Prediction: Congress gaining on BJP, BJP gaining on rest
In a peculiar situation, it is likely that while Congress will improve its performance, BJP too will perform well in 2019. How?
When we look at google search for the last week of March, this is what we find
India: BJP increased lead over Congress from 25 points to 31 points
This seems to suggest BJP will hammer Congress. But let us see what is under this. First let us look at where BJP has increased lead
Gujarat: BJP lead increases from 18 points to 23 points
Odisha: BJP lead increased from 26 to 31 points
Bengal: BJP lead increased from 17 points to 51 points
Karnataka: BJP lead increased from 11 to 20 points
Jharkhand: BJP lead increased from 29 to 53 points
Uttar Pradesh: BJP lead increased from 19 to 27 points
Bihar: BJP lead increased from 4 to 11 points
Chhattisgarh: BJP lead increased from 5 to 18 points (This was an exceptional week, else BJP is actually trailing here)
Out of these 8 States, Congress and BJP are head on rivals only in 4 States. Implies, BJP is gaining from other parties in these States
Look at where BJP is losing out to Congress
Rajasthan: BJP lead reduced from 10 points to 1 point
Assam: BJP lead reduced from 20 points to 12 points
Haryana: BJP lead reduced from 28 points to 25 points
Kerala: BJP lead reduced from 16 points to 12 points
Maharashtra: BJP lead reduced from 25 points to 15 points
Uttarakhand: BJP lead reduced from 25 points to 15 points
Madhya Pradesh: BJP lead reduced from 7 points to 6 points
Out of these 7 States, BJP is head on competing with Congress in all 7 states though as a weaker rival in Kerala
Though this is a snapshot and is likely to change over the next two weeks, the general trend of Congress gaining from BJP and BJP gaining from regional parties is likely to remain. Why?
a. Congress is the lead opposition to BJP in most States and has lost out quite significantly in 2014, so this is some recovery of sorts
b. Eastern regional parties had performed extremely well in 2014 against BJP and a split or disorganised opposition. BJP has now occupied that space fully and is able to compete well.
No doubt that in an unlikely scenario both BJP and Congress could end up performing well in 2019
