Aeon-CrowdWisdom360 Opinion Poll: Why Today’s budget is crucial for BJP

In our Face to Face survey of nearly 2000 URBAN respondents (Reported daily, collected weekly) from most of the top 19 cities, we find that BJP has lost significant share between 2014 and 2019.

Given that the Congress and Others are rarely present against BJP in the same city, one can assume safely that close to 3% of the swing against the BJP directly benefits the opposition.

Losses are severe in the hindi belt and south, not so in West and East. But it is important to note where most of the losses are

Upper Middle Class (Car Owners): Loss of 10% (Range of 7-10%)

Middle Class (Two Wheeler Owners): Loss of 4.6% (Range of 4.5% to 7%)

Lower Income (No vehicles at home): Loss of 1.2% (Range of 1 to 3%)

This data broadly fits into the larger narrative of PM Modi having done good work for the lower income groups while largely ignoring the Middle and Upper Classes. With the middle and Upper Classes constituting some 60-70% of the urban voters and 30-40% of rural voters, the risk for the BJP is quite high. Today’s budget could change the tide if the BJP goes beyond reservations to come up with something more comprehensive for these segments.