Alberta Election Results 2023:UCP 49, NDP 38
- UCP: 49
- NDP: 38
NDP Gains so far: +14 [Needed +20 to win]
- UCP: 12
- NDP: 14
- UCP: 52.6% (-2.3%)
- NDP: 44.0% (+12.3%)
1.76 Million votes counted
Election Polls Summary
- Average of the Last 5 Danielle Smith polls 2023: UCP: 50.0%, NDP: 46.4%
- Seat Forecast (Average): UCP: 50, NDP: 37
- Google Search Volume: NDP: 59%, UCP: 41%
- Net Social Sentiment: NDP: -38.8% UCP: -45.5%
Article Coverage: Observations and Insights along with Debate data update, Latest Polls in Detail, Google Search Trends, Social Media Sentiment Trends, Election Video, Last Election Video, Voter Analysis
In 2015, the New Democratic Party under the leadership of Rachel Notley formed the government for the first time in Alberta and the same year saw the Wildrose Party and the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party contesting for the last time separately. In 2017, the two parties merged to form United Conservative Party.
The merger of the two parties turned out to be advantageous as the United Conservative Party unseated the ruling Alberta New Democratic Party and formed their government. Jason Kenny went on to become the Premier of Alberta in 2019. Jason Kenny resigned as Premier in October 2022 year paving the way for Danielle Smith as Premier.
This year, Alberta will once again vote to elect a new government. Danielle Smith, the current Premier of Alberta will be leading the United Conservative Party while Rachel Notley will lead the New Democratic Party. Notley has been the leader of Alberta NDP since 2014. The Alberta Party will run under the leadership of Barry Morishita.
The Alberta Election is scheduled to be held today to elect the new members of the Legislative Assembly of Alberta.
Alberta Provincial Election Polls 2023: Observations and Insights, May 29th
- The UCP has surged after the Debate
- The latest Leger Poll Shows a 6% bump for the UCP over the last 4 weeks. Every other poll and seat forecast shows a huge advantage for the UCP
- Crowdwisdom360 Poll showed 53% of respondents felt Smith won the poll vs 39% in the case of Notley
- What really happened is that while UCP has lost support compared to 2019, Danielle Smith has managed to stem the losses and has now placed the UCP at a huge advantage over the NCP. This could get worse for NCP
- Where did UCP Gain after the debate? (Abacus Poll)
- Among those who are under 45 years of age, UCP went from 47-30 to 61-36
- Among Men, UCP went from 39-43 to 59-40
- While NDP made gains amongst older voters and women, it was lesser than UCP gains
- Rachel Notley’s ratings fell from 38% negative to 43% negative while there was no change in Danielle Smith’s ratings.
- However, one concern for all the Pollsters should be this chart. NDP appears to have gained after the debate and not lost like share as most of the Polls appear to be suggesting.
In fact, the gap between Danielle Smith and Rachel Notley which was atleast 20% in favor of Danielle Smith until 3 days ago has fallen to a 2% lead for Rachel Notley Instead. While Search Volumes tell a story, they miss the feelings behind it. For example, in the US, people searched for Donald Trump more than Joe Biden in 2020. However social media sentiments showed they had a poor opinion of Trump. In Alberta, both parties gained significantly since the debate. However, UCP appears to have gained more over the last 3 days. This ties in with how the polls have turned out.
|Latest Alberta Provincial Election Polls 2023, May 29th|
Forum Research, May 28th, The Most Accurate Pollster in 2019
The United Conservative Party (UCP) is heading for a narrow victory in the Alberta provincial election on May 29th, according to a poll conducted by Forum Research. The poll, which sampled 1,000 Alberta voters, found that 50.4% of decided or leaning voters are likely to vote for the UCP, while 44.3% are likely to vote for the New Democratic Party (NDP). The Green Party and other parties gathered 1.6% and 3.7% support respectively.
Forum Research projects 45 seats for the UCP and 42 seats for the NDP in the provincial election.
Abacus Poll, May 28th
The final poll analysis suggests that the UCP is favored to win a close election in Alberta. The UCP is projected to receive close to 49% of the vote, while the NDP is expected to get around 48%. Among those aged 45 and over, the UCP leads by 21 points, while in Calgary proper, they are ahead by 9 points. The NDP enjoys a significant 30-point lead in Edmonton proper. Additionally, the NDP leads among women by 15 points. Despite these gains, the UCP’s perceived strength in managing the economy, with 59% support, provides them with an advantage.
Ipsos Poll, May 28th
The latest Ipsos poll for Global News shows a tied race in Calgary, with both the United Conservative Party (UCP) and the NDP sitting at 49%. The NDP leads in Edmonton with 57%, while the UCP dominates the rest of the province with a 34-point lead. The outcome in Calgary will be crucial in determining the election result. Voter turnout will play a significant role, as the NDP tends to attract younger voters, while the UCP sees more support from older generations.
Alberta Election: Latest Danielle Smith polls
- Average of Polls (May 29th, 2023)
- UCP: 50.0%
- NDP: 46.4%
- Forum (May 28th)
- UCP: 50.4%
- NDP: 44.3%
[Forum Overstated NDP by 2% and Understated UCP by 4% in 2019] – Most accurate Pollster in 2019
- Mainstreet Research (May 26th-28th)
- UCP: 49.8%
- NDP: 47.8%
[Mainstreet Overstated NDP by 7% and Understated UCP by 7% in 2019]
- Abacus (May 26th-28th)
- UCP: 49.0%
- NDP: 48.0%
- Research Co (May 26th-27th)
- UCP: 50.0%
- NDP: 46.0%
[Research Co Overstated NDP by 6% and Understated UCP by 6% in 2019]
- Ipsos (May 24th-27th)
- UCP: 51.0%
- NDP: 46.0%
[Ipsos Overstated NDP by 7% and Understated UCP by 5% in 2019]
Alberta General Election Polls 2023: Seat Forecasts
Average, May 29th
- UCP: 50
- NDP: 37
- UCP: 50
- NDP: 37
- UCP: 50
- NDP: 37
- UCP: 51
- NDP: 36
In our daily poll, UCP surged from 30% (before the debate) who thought they will win the election to 82% on Sunday.
[Older Poll Data is deleted every day]
Alberta General Election Polls 2023: Google Trends
Search Volumes for UCP are rising and this has helped UCB bridge the gap with NDP. Further, this is also relatively better than the last election. However, the problem for UCP is that the net sentiments towards the party are negative. So increased search may not necessarily be a better thing. The NDP has a different problem – The party’s ratings are better than Rachel Notley’s ratings.
Last 7 days, May 29th
- UCP: 43%
- NDP: 57%
Last 7 days
- UCP: 52%
- NDP: 48%
- Danielle Smith: 57%
- Rachel Notley: 43%
Alberta Elections Poll 2023: Social Media Sentiments
- UCP: -45.5%
- Smith: -42%
- NDP: -38.8%
- Notley: -36%
Alberta Election Polling: Latest Alberta Election News, May 29th
- UCP leader Danielle Smith participated in the Calgary Marathon’s 5K race, while NDP leader Rachel Notley rallied supporters in Edmonton after campaigning in Calgary. Endorsements from notable figures like Naheed Nenshi and Pierre Poilievre highlight the support each party has garnered. Political science professor Mark Crawford emphasizes the importance of this final push, particularly due to the closeness of the election. Calgary’s outcome is expected to be crucial, as the UCP holds most seats there, but the NDP aims to make gains. Advance voting reached record-breaking numbers, with over 758,000 ballots cast.
- The UCP has released its platform, focusing on no tax increases and predicted budget surpluses in the next four years, amidst criticism of the NDP’s proposal to increase the general corporate tax rate. Controversies have arisen over Smith’s contravention of conflict of interest laws in a case involving protester Artur Pawlowski, and debate over the NDP’s economic record, particularly job losses.
Latest Danielle Smith polls: Danielle Smith Approval Rating
The latest poll from the Angus Reid Institute has Smith with only an approval rating of 46% and a disapproval rating of 38%.
The report concludes that despite Smith promising a balanced budget and a fiscal plan of $68.3 billion this year, her approval rating stems from criticisms over her plan to incentivize oil companies to clean up inactive oil wells and allegations that someone from her office contacted crown prosecutors to discuss cases related to the Coutts, Alta., border blockade early last year.
Latest Danielle Smith polls: How are Danielle Smith’s ideas playing with Albertans?
The poll asked respondents their views on four policy fronts:
• Sovereignty Act: Approve: 29%, Disapprove: 41%
• Alberta Police Force: Approve: 27%, Disapprove: 49%
• Private delivery in Alberta’s healthcare system: Approve: 35%, Disapprove: 41%
• Preventing school boards from bringing in mask mandates: Approve: 30%, Disapprove: 51%
Alberta Opinion Poll: What Happened in the Last Election?
The Alberta election was the election for the 30th Alberta Legislature. It was held on April 16, 2019. The election was the first election for the United Conservative Party which was formed by the unification of Wildrose and the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party.
Jason Kennedy was the leader of the party and the UCP was able to form its government in its very first election. The party secured a 54.88% vote share. The ruling Alberta New Democratic Party (NDP) was reduced to 40.62% vote share. UCP won 63 seats while NDP won 24 seats down from the 52 seats that it had won in the last election.
The Alberta Party failed to win any seats. They polled less than 3% of the total votes.
Jason Kennedy went on to become the Premier of Alberta after the election.
Alberta General Elections Polls 2023: Demography
As of July 1, 2022, Alberta’s population was 4,543,111. As per the latest data, Alberta added 40,253 residents in the second quarter of 2022.
-The maximum population lives in urban areas. Around 81% of the population lives in urban areas and 19% lives in rural areas. Calgary is the largest city with an estimated population of 1.1 million and a metropolitan population of 1.21 million.
Edmonton is the capital of Alberta. Racially Alberta has 80.3% white, 13.9% belonging to a visible minority group, and 5.8% Aboriginal. English is the native language spoken in Alberta.
Alberta is very ethnically diverse, with many immigrants from England, Scotland, Ireland, Wales, Germany, France, Ukraine, and Scandinavia. Alberta has the second-highest percentage of Francophones (French speakers) in western Canada.
Alberta Provincial Election: How is the election in Alberta Conducted?
The Legislative Assembly of Alberta is a unicameral assembly with 87 members. The members are elected by first past the post method from single-member electoral districts. To be a candidate for election to the assembly, a person must be a Canadian citizen. The person must be older than 18 and must have lived in Alberta for at least six months before the election.