AN INSIGHT ON BENGAL’S ELECTION: IS THIS ELECTION ALL ABOUT MAMATA BANERJEE ?

IS THIS ELECTION ALL ABOUT MAMATA BANERJEE ? A cat fight which is all over making rounds in election is now more like a personal tiff between BJP and TMC.

From making political remarks to going overboard with personal allegations BJP and TMC have been seeking attention in this election. Where Modi said West Bengal under Banerjee was known for “triple T – Trinamool, Tolabaazi, Tax”.  In return Mamata Banerjee said that no matter what Modi and his party does, the people of Bengal will never vote a party like the BJP.

BENGAL SCENARIO

So, What is Bengal story is this election all about Mamata Banerjee ?

Bengali are not like business-minded Gujarati, or caste ridden or very regional in their approach. Bengali are lot like the Marathi, who are determined towards their intent. The first call for Hindu-Muslim unity came from Bengal itself throughout the British-raj be it Sepoy -mutiny or the immense opposition to British tactics to divide Bengal. But Bengals choice of left was also because of the merciless hegemony of INC at centre mostly led by Indira Gandhi. Not to mention that initially Left did some good things as well under Jyoti Basu, e.g.- protecting Sikhs in Calcutta, when they were being butchered in 1984 Sikh massacre all over India, but the moment that force took a demonic shape, Bengali uprooted, the CPM from WB for good, laying their faith on TMC.

HOW COMMUNISM TOOK OVER BENGAL ?

Communism as an idea took hold among sections of the Bengali middle-class post-Independence largely because the “Bhadra Lok” felt elites of the Hindi heartland had cornered most of the establishment. In part, therefore, Bengal’s communism was an assertion of regional identity marketed as ‘progressive’ politics.

When communists took power in 1977 in the state, they built a three-element political-economic-electoral model and executed it with ruthless efficiency. First, after a partially successful distribution of land rights in Bengal’s villages, CPM presided over a period of high agricultural growth generated by labor-intensive cultivation of small plots.

Second, as industrial capital largely stayed away, the party massively encouraged informal employment, especially in urban and semi-urban.

Basically, industrialization and employment are major key issues of elections this time.

BATTLEGROUND

The state of West Bengal has 42 parliamentary constituencies in total. Hence it has 42 Lok Sabha seats to distribute among the contesting parties for the Lok Sabha 2019. The election to 33 Lok Sabha seats are already completed and the remaining 9 seats will see the polling in last phase that is on 19th May, 2019. These seats are Dumdum, Barasat, Basirhat, Jainagar, Mathurapur, Diamond Harbour, Jadavpur, Kolkata South and Kolkata North.

HOW BJP GAINED IN BENGAL

On the basis of the strong showing of the BJP in the recent panchayat polls, BJP has grown tremendously in the rural Bengal and North Bengal. Even in the borderdistrictsand in the districts with strong Matua population BJP has been doing great. The tribal-dominated districts of Bankura, Purulia, Jhargram too have voted massively for BJP in the panchayat polls despite unlimited violence from the ruling party. Also, BJP is traditionally strong in regions with high non Bengali populations.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha Elections, the BJP and Congress could do little in the state to make their candidates win from many constituencies. Among the 42 seats in the state, the BJP has at present only 2 seats with the Congress having 4 seats. The Marxist Communist Party has won from 2 places and the remaining 34 seats are with the All India Trinamool Congress.

LEADERSHIP CRISIS FOR BJP IN BENGAL

BJP has lack of good and mass leader in State. Dilip Ghosh (State unit president), Rabbin Chatterjee (vice-president of state BJP), Roopa Ganguly, Mukul Roy etc are doing well in their performance but no one is getting popularity like Mamata Banarjee. In Bengal people don’t vote in favour of candidates rather they vote in favour of Mamta Banarjee. It means Mamata is leading in attracting votes in favour of TMC and this is the problem that BJP is facing. Mamata image as simplicity is still popular in rural areas.

For BJP, it still seems that it may not be able to break the connection that Mamata Banerjee has created with the people of West Bengal.

PREDICT: How many seats will BJP gain in Bengal?

BENGAL AFTER 6 PHASE OF VOTING

After six phase of voting, the fate of many political leaders is sealed in the EVM machine. The analysis as per the Google trend for past month with respect to the Bengal:

The above graph clearly indicates the rising influence of BJP in state. We are few more days away from the Judgement day. Even if we assume that Modi’s popularity is going to outshine Mamata in 2019, question is, can BJP compete with Trinamool who has a solid vote bank and more than a handful of goons at their disposal?? If BJP manages to pull off a win in West Bengal in 2019, that would be nothing but less than a miracle!

IS THIS ELECTION ALL ABOUT MAMATA BANERJEE ?

READ: WHY BENGAL 2019 MAY BE UTTAR PRADESH OF 2014?

By: Mamta Gaur- A Political enthusiast

Pic courtesy: DNAIndia