Australian Election 2022 Polls: Will Scott Morrison shock everyone with another ‘Miracle’ Comeback?
Australian Election 2022 Polls: Will Scott Morrison pull off a Miracle win again?
Australian Election 2022 Polls: Summary of recent polls
- Resolve Strategic reports that the PM’s coalition is 3% ahead of Labor on the Primary Vote
- Guardian Essential as well as Resolve Strategic report that the gap between the Coalition and ALP on TPP (Two Party Preferred) vote is just 2%
- All TPP polls show a tightening election just 3 days before election day (3.5 million have already voted). See the chart below. Just one poll had the Coalition above 45% TPP vote in early April. This week, all 4 polls place the Coalition above 45%
Australian Election 2022 Polls: Primary and TPP Swings 2007 to 2019
Let us look at the historic correlation between primary and TPP vote swings for the Coalition
Primary and TPP swings haven’t varied by more than 2% in the last 5 elections.
| Primary Swing | TPP Swing | Gap between TPP and Primary Swing | ||
| 2019 | -0.6% | +1.2% | +1.8% | |
| 2016 | -3.5% | -3.1% | +0.4% | |
| 2013 | +1.9% | +3.6% | +1.7% | |
| 2010 | +1.2% | +2.6% | +1.4% | |
| 2007 | -4.6% | -5.4% | -0.8% |
However, the current polls report substantially different swing patterns. For example, Resolve shows a 7.3% swing in the primary vote against the coalition but only a 2.5% swing in the TPP vote (See Table below)
| Primary Swing | TPP Swing | Gap between TPP and Primary Swing | ||
| Essential 2022 | -5.4% | -5.5% | -0.1% | |
| Resolve 2022 | -7.4% | -2.5% | +4.9% | |
| Newspoll 2022 | -6.4% | -5.5% | +0.9% | |
| Roy Morgan | -7.5% | -4.5% | +3% | |
| Ipsos 2022 | -12% | -8% | +4% |
Australian Election 2022 Polls: Analysis of all Polls
To understand this better, let us find out who is gaining from the coalition losses according to the Resolve Poll. According to the Resolve poll, the Coalition is losing 7.4% of the vote versus 2019. ALP is losing 2.3%
- The Greens are gaining 3.6% in this election. One assumes that the bulk of the gains are from the ALP
- Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party is gaining 2.6%, most of them probably from the Coalition.
- United Australian Party is gaining 0.6%, most of them probably from the Coalition
- So what happens to the rest 4%, is it going to Independents?
The argument is that the bulk of those who are leaving the Coalition are voting for Independents but are unwilling to preference Labor. If this sounds far fetched, let us argue that the primary swing isn’t actually that huge and the Coalition would probably end closer to 37% of the vote or a swing of about 4.5%. That would explain the closer TPP vote share (49% for the Coalition). It would also mean a very close contest, probably hung parliament.
If one were to look at the Guardian Essential poll, there are about 7% undecided voters. The primary swings are as follows. About 5.5% are moving away from the coalition
- ALP is gaining 1.7%
- Pauline Hanson 1%
- Others are gaining 2.8%
If the Undecided voters were to break in exactly the same way as the currently predicted vote shares, the Coalition would end with 2.5% fewer votes than in 2019. This too suggests a hung parliament.
Roy Morgan and Newspoll appear to be tracking historic averages on swings but the vote share forecasts for the Labor party are substantially different. Newspoll’s forecast for Labor is way off from the rest of the pollsters. It doesn’t mean they can’t be right but let us look at how the Coalition’s losses of 6.5% are distributed –
- 4.6% for the ALP
- 0.6% for the Greens
- 3% for Pauline Hanson
- Others and smaller parties would lose about 1.7%
This looks a little off because the share of ‘others’ is falling instead of rising as captured by most Polls. If the forecast for ‘others’ is off, Both ALP and Pauline Hanson are likely to end with smaller gains. This also means that the 8% gap between ALP and the Coalition could probably be closer to 4%. This would give ALP a clear win.
The Roy Morgan Poll is reporting an 8% gain for ‘others’ and 1% for ALP. In theory, this is possible. It shows the Coalition losing 7.5% of the primary vote and 5.5% of the TPP vote. The loss in primary votes aligns well with the multiple surveys showing a significant drop in Scott Morrison’s ratings. It also ties well with multiple surveys showing Anthony Albanese not gaining from Scott Morrison’s poor approval ratings. Multiple surveys have also shown that 51-54% of the voters disapprove of the PM’s performance. If this poll is the closest to reality, it forecasts a win for ALP
Australian Election 2022 Polls: Conclusion
Taking all the data points into consideration, it looks like the Coalition will lose 3-5% of the vote and perhaps 2-4% of the TPP vote giving the ALP either a narrow win or a hung parliament. With low approval ratings, it is unlikely Scott Morrison can pull off another ‘Miracle’.
