Bihar: NDA likely to win less than 130 seats

June 10, 2020

Crowdwisdom360’s Political Prediction game (which has a 70% accuracy) has predicted that NDA is likely to win anywhere between 120 and 125 Seats. This is a first cut and numbers will keep changing over the next 2 weeks. The seat predictions are as follows

JDU – 57 seats
BJP – 57 seats
RJD – 60 Seats

Bihar Assembly has 243 Seats which means that NDA allies plus RJD allies and Independents will win about 69 Seats. In 2015 these smaller parties together won about 39 Seats indicating a big role for the smaller parties in the Bihar election.If these results come true, this will be the lowest tally won by the NDA since 2005.

The only explanation for NDA’s poor performance is the recent CVoter Survey which showed Nitish had one of the lowest Net Satisfaction ratings of 30. This may be primarily due to the slow growth of the economy over the last 12 months impacting states like Bihar which depend on central support. The handling of migrants has also been criticised by many.

The likely poor performance of the NDA is probably what prompted Shashi Singh who has proven to be a very accurate forecaster to put out this tweet today. He indicated that it is game over for NDA if RJD puts up a good CM candidate (probably not Tejashwi)

Bihar election is open and shut case if RJD+ doesn't change its face..#BiharElections2020
— Shashi S Singh 🇮🇳 (@Morewithshashi) June 10, 2020

It is not game over yet and it will depend a lot on how each party plans and executes over the next 4 months.

The CrowdWisdom360 prediction game is designed like the stock market (without real money) and has proven to be accurate in all elections since May 2019. As time increases, more participants are likely to influence the direction of these predictions. Wait and watch!

To play and win amazon vouchers in the prediction game visit us at http://www.crowdwisdom360.com