Prediction for BJP in 2019-188 to 212 seats: Crowd

April 8, 2018

Let us look at the Crowd’s Prediction for BJP in 2019.

On CrowdWisdom web-site individuals who are good at predicting elections are given a higher weight than those who have a poor record in predicting an election. Which means that for every prediction, we present two results

One, of all predictors, is the default version and
Two, of experts. They are also from the Crowd but have proven themselves in previous elections

Please see this video for to know the Entire Crowd’s prediction for BJP in 2019 Election

Let us now look at the Crowd Experts Predictions for key States

State Wise Seat Prediction for BJP in 2019

Rajasthan – 11 to 15 Seats

Odisha – 9 to 11

Delhi – 5

Bihar (NDA) – 26 to 30

Bengal – 6 to 10

Maharashtra – 18 to 21

Madhya Pradesh – 19 to 21

Karnataka – 15 to 17 seats

Gujarat – 18 to 20 seats

Assam – 6 Seats

Jharkhand – 6 Seats

Uttar Pradesh – 31 to 36 Seats

Haryana – 5 Seats

Chhattisgarh – 3 to 4 Seats

Total: 178 to 202 (It won 270 in 2014)

Therefore, NDA is likely to lose between 68 to 92 seats in these States. The other states include NE, Goa, Uttarakhand, Punjab, J&K, HP and almost all the Southern States

If one were to assume close to 2014 performance, BJP would win a maximum of 25 seats here. Excluding NDA allies winnings from the above (about 15 seats in Bihar and UP), this would change the prediction for BJP in 2019 to a ranges of 188 to 212 seats

Assuming BJP’s allies like Shiv Sena, JD(U), LJP, AIADMK etc together win another 30-40 seats, the party would be left with a tally of 250 needing 24 to form the next Government.

It appears even if narrowly, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely return as Prime Minister after Lok Sabha Election 2019.