BJP winning north-east India ?

May 15, 2019

BJP winning north-east India ? North-east India, the seven sister states and Sikkim, forms the easternmost part of India. Away from the Delhi media circle, this part of India has always been traditionally and culturally rich. Though, politically ignored, the 25 Lok Sabha seats of northeast holds high importance when it comes to formation of government at the center. In 2014, BJP, at the peak of Modi wave was able to add only 8 Lok Sabha seats to its kitty however this time BJP along with its alliance partners is expecting of winning 21 of 25 Lok Sabha seats.

WHAT CHANGED AFTER 2014 for BJP ?

After 2014, BJP under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi rewrote the political history of north-east. The BJP, which has always struggled to make inroads in north-eastern state, found a new ground in north-east for political exploration. The party was able to form government on its own in the states of Assam, Tripura, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh. Added to it, BJP today is part of coalition government in the states of Meghalaya and Nagaland. The political parties forming the government in Sikkim and Mizoram are also part of NEDA (North East Democratic Alliance) which in turn is a part of BJP led NDA. Thus, after 2014 Lok Sabha victory, BJP was able to replace Congress as the principal political pole in the north-east.

WHAT HAS BJP DONE FOR NORTH-EAST INDIA?

North-eastern states of India, that is the seven sisters and one brother state has been neglected since 1947. After the BJP government came to power several works of development was done in this part of India.

Advantage Assam summit– 1 lakh crore investment came to Assam and plan of the Guwahati trade center twin towers was unveiled.
Bogibeel bridge, India’s longest railroad bridge opened. It is India’s first fully welded steel-concrete composite bridge with European welding standards, capable of resisting an 8 richter scale earthquake, piers 60 m below river surface and superstructure 32 m above water.
Pakyong airport, Sikkim’s first airport opened. It is a greenfield airport with world’s highest retaining structures using geogrids.
Foundation laid for National Sports University in Manipur. Also, Assam is developing a sports university in Chabua, Assam.
Guwahati became first solar powered railway station
Sikkim won UN award for being India’s first fully organic state.

Apart from this, north-east India saw an all-round development in the five-year tenure of Modi government. However, are these works of Modi government enough to help BJP and its allies the 20 Lok Sabha seats that it hopes to win in North-east India? That’s a question which will be answerable on 23 May. In the meantime, let us analyse the different predictions regarding the Lok Sabha polls in north-east.

First we will analyse the tweets relating to predictions. These tweets have been retweeted most, however, we do not endorse these predictions.

290 is my revised prediction. AP1 Arunachal1 Assam 4 Bihar28 Goa1 Gujarath24 Haryana7 Himachal4 JK3 Jharkand4 Karnataka 17 Kerala12 MP20 Maharashtra35 Orissa12 Punjab8 Rajasthan18 TN5 Telengana1 uttarakhand4 WestBengal21 UP50 Delhi UT 15 0 https://t.co/uDffTYCo7n
— Rangan Freelancer (@Jammalamadugu) May 12, 2019

My prediction for BJP –

MH – 20
Gujarat – 24
MP – 22
RJ – 22
Punjab – 2
Haryana – 6
J&K – 2
UK – 5
HP – 4
Delhi – 6
UP – 55
Bihar – 14
TN – 2
Karnataka – 20
AP – 0
TL – 0
Kerala – 1
Assam – 8
NE – 5
Odisha – 12
36 garh – 6
Jharkhand – 8
WB – 12
Goa + UT – 6

Total – 262 (+/-10)
— Mohit Dayal (@_mdayal) May 8, 2019

https://twitter.com/vikasbha/status/1128575283093811202

After analysing these predictions, it is clear that BJP will be able to win couple of seats in north-east. These seats may compensate to the seat loss that BJP may face in hindi heartland and Uttar Pradesh.

CROWD’s VERDICT

In Crowd’s Verdict, 56.6% of respondents believe that BJP may win 16 or more seats in north-east Lok Sabha election which is down by about 5% of previous months 61%.

On the other hand, 52.2% of our respondents believe that Congress may win 6 or more seats in 2019 Lok Sabha election from north-east which is up by 6% of previous months 48%.

OUTCOME

North-east India, which was completely undiscovered land for BJP is turning out to be one of the most important part India with respect to BJP. This part of the country is proving to be a savior to the loss of seats that BJP may incur in Hindi heartland. Strong organisation and the induction of powerful leader like Himanta Biswa Sharma is helping BJP turning the tide in its favour in north-eastern states. Alone in Assam, BJP is expecting to win around 8 seats and with its alliance partners (AGP and BPF), it is expecting to win 11 seats out of 14 Lok Sabha seats. However, how many seats will it be able to win will be evident on 23rd May but one thing is clear that BJP is now a key force not just in Hindi heartland but also in north-eastern India.