Chicago Mayor Polls 2023: Johnson Gains over Vallas in New Polls

Chicago Mayor Polls 2023 (Average): Paul Vallas: 43.4% Brandon Johnson: 45.1% Undecided: 13.3%

Latest Chicago Mayoral Election Poll: Paul Vallas: 46.3% Brandon Johnson: 44.2% Undecided: 9.4%

Google Search TrendsPaul Vallas: 52%, Brandon Johnson: 48%

Eleven candidates were on the ballot on February 28th voting including the incumbent Lori Lightfoot. Lightfoot was elected mayor in 2019. Lightfoot won 17.5% of votes amongst the 14 candidates contesting for the general election In the April 2 runoff election, she defeated Toni Preckwinkle 74% to 26%. The February 28th voting resulted in a defeat for the incumbent for the first time in over 3 decades. Paul Vallas received the maximum votes with Brandon Johnson in 2nd position.

The runoff election is scheduled for April 4th.

Chicago Mayoral Polls 2023: Who are the Candidates for the Runoff?

Paul Vallas

Paul Vallas, a former superintendent of the Chicago Public Schools, is known for his crisis management skills and support for charter schools. During his time in Chicago, he reformed the school system, balanced the budget, and expanded alternative schools. However, his proposal to reallocate funds for teacher pensions into the operating budget led to a $1 billion budget crisis. Vallas has a history of bipartisan support and experience running for statewide office.

Brandon Johnson

Brandon Johnson is a Democratic politician and educator from Illinois who currently serves on the Cook County Board of Commissioners, representing the 1st district. Johnson defeated the incumbent commissioner Richard Boykin in the 2018 Democratic primary election and won the general election unopposed. Johnson worked as a social studies teacher before becoming an organizer with the Chicago Teachers Union in 2011 and helped lead field campaigns during the 2015 Chicago mayoral and aldermanic elections.

Chicago Mayoral Race Polls: Who is Winning the Chicago Mayoral Race?

Chicago Mayor Polls: Observations and Insights

Latest Victory Research Poll Findings

  • Vallas Leads among Men while both Candidates are tied among women
  • Johnson leads heavily in Chicago Southside while Vallas leads heavily in the Southwest and Northwest wards
  • Johnson leads among Younger voters while Vallas leads among older voters
  • Vallas leads among white and Hispanic voters while Johnson leads among Black voters
  • Vallas leads among moderate and conservative voters while trailing among progressive voters
  • Voters who voted for Lightfoot or Garcia last month are mostly voting for Johnson.

Chicago Mayoral Debate Recap

Less than two weeks away from the run-off election and both the candidates clashed for a Televised debate on Tuesday to discuss the major issues facing the city of Chicago

Defunding the police: Johnson when asked about his plans to ask if he would remove money from the Chicago Police budget, cleared that he doesn’t plan to do that. Johnson went on to reiterate his plan to hire 200 more police detectives so as to improve the clearance rate for crimes, focus on implementing the federal consent decree that mandates reform in the Chicago Police Department, and focus on long-term solutions to deal with the root causes of crime by focusing on issues such as youth employment.

City budget, taxes, and pension: Vallas proposed $800 million in tax increases, including a potential income tax increase. Vallas mentions that” tackling the $28 billion spending that the city does every year is the first order of business and not tax increases.” Vallas also added he has “no intention of raising property taxes,” but he plans on advocating for “individual property tax caps on homeowners, as well as businesses and apartment owners.” Johnson claimed that he is going to plug the structural deficit without raising the property tax rates.

Education: Johnson proposed implementing a new funding formula when elected. According to him, it’s a new funding formula that bases the investment on the need & provides additional support and resources to the families that deserve it. Vallas promised that he will work to create work-study jobs for the high school kids, with all of the city agencies, departments, contractors, and unions, who will engage and involve youth in work-study opportunities.

In the latest IZQ Poll

  • Johnson leads Vallas by 21 among women while Vallas leads Johnson by 18 among Men
  • Johnson is also ahead among those under 45, among College-educated voters, and among Black Voters
  • Vallas is ahead among those over 45, among those who haven’t attended college, and also among Hispanic and White Voters.
  • In many ways, Vallas is mimicking a Republican candidate’s voter profile.

Chicago Mayor Polls 2023: Latest Polls

Average of PollsMarch 27th
Victory ResearchMarch 20-23
IZQ StrategiesMarch 15-16
Lake Research PartnersMarch 2-7

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Chicago Mayor Election Odds

There are no betting odds available at the moment.

Chicago Mayor Polls: Google Search Data

Last 7 days

  • Paul Vallas: 52%
  • Brandon Johnson: 48%

Last 30 days

  • Paul Vallas: 56%
  • Brandon Johnson: 44%

Chicago Mayoral Polls: Social Media Sentiments

Last 7 days (Illinois)

  • Vallas: -36%
  • Johnson: -20%

Chicago Mayor Election Polls 2023: Endorsements

Paul Vallas

  • Alds. Brian Hopkins, Anthony Napolitano, Tom Tunney
  • Chicago Chapter FOP, International Union of Elevator Constructors Local 2,
  • Chicago Tribune, Gazette Chicago  

Chuy Garcia

  • Alds. Felix Cardona Jr., Michael Rodriguez, Susan Sadlowski-Garza, Andre Vasquez, Gilbert Villegas
  • State Sen. Ram Villivalam
  • US Rep. Jan Schakowsky
  • Illinois House Democratic Leader Robyn Gabel

Chicago Mayor Polls: Demographic Profile of Chicago

Chicago is a city in the state of Illinois and falls under Cook County. The population of Chicago was 2.7 M in 2015 and in the last 7 years, no increase in the population has been registered in Chicago.

Chicago has more women population than men and as of July 2021, the white population in Chicago is around 48%. The black population adds up to 29% of the population and Hispanics or Latinos together form 28.6% of the total population.

Population Estimates, July 1 20212,696,555
Persons under 5 years6.1%
Persons under 18 years20.5%
Persons 65 years and over12.7%
Female Population51.4%
White alone47.7%
Black or African Americans alone29.2%
American Indians and Alaska Natives alone0.3%
Asian alone6.8%
Two or More Races5.3%
Hispanic or Latino28.6%
White alone, not Hispanic or Latino33.3%

Chicago Mayoral Polls: Election Process

The election in Chicago is a non-partisan election but most of the time a candidate is backed by a political party. Chicago is generally considered a Democratic Party-dominated region.

The term limit for the office of the Mayor in Chicago is 4 years. The candidate’s name before being listed on the ballot will have to get a minimum of 12,500 signatures from the Chicago voters within the prescribed date.

This year in Chicago the date for getting the 12,500 signatures has been fixed between November 21 to 28th. Candidates failing to get the required number of signatures are disqualified.

The names of the candidates with more than 12,500 signatures are listed on the ballot. On the voting date, voters cast their vote, and the winner is declared on the same day or the next day of the voting.

For a candidate to be declared winner will have to get a minimum of 50% vote share. Since the Chicago Mayoral election has been usually crowded, there have been very rare chances of a candidate receiving a 50% or higher share of votes.

If none of the candidates secures a majority, a run-off election is held. The top two candidates from the Primary election qualify for the run-off ballots. Since there are only two candidates, a winner is declared after the voting and counting is completed for the run-off election.

***** Note: The section Below this has the Details of the February 28th election. Information to be updated soon.******

What are the Main Issues for Upcoming Mayoral Race?

  • The rise in Crime is the Main Issue Among Chicago Voters
    • Chicago Police statistics show that through Jan. 22, 2023, violent crime is 61% higher than the same span in 2022 and 97% greater than in 2021.
  • Educational Reform is the most important Issue For the Upcoming Chicago Mayoral Election
    • The reforms under this section include setting a minimum salary for teachers, limiting police in arresting or questioning students at school and creating an elected school board in Chicago.
    • Fulfilling the vacant elementary school.
    • Expanding universal preschool to 3-year-olds.
    • Hiring at least one nurse, librarian, and social worker per school.
    • Conduct an external audit of CPS special education practices to improve services.

Chicago Mayoral Polls 2023: First Round

Average of all PollsFebruary 28th, 2023
Jesus ‘Chuy’ Garcia13.8%
Lori Lightfoot16.2%
Brandon Johnson16.2%
Willie Wilson11.8%
Paul Vallas26.2%
1983 LabsFebruary 25th
Jesus ‘Chuy’ Garcia16%
Lori Lightfoot18%
Brandon Johnson14.5%
Willie Wilson
Paul Vallas24%
M3StrategiesFebruary 21st
Jesus ‘Chuy’ Garcia11.6%
Lori Lightfoot13.6%
Brandon Johnson18%
Willie Wilson
Paul Vallas32%
Victory ResearchFebruary 15th
Jesus ‘Chuy’ Garcia13.8%
Lori Lightfoot17.1%
Brandon Johnson16.1%
Willie Wilson11.8%
Paul Vallas22.8%

Chronology Leading To Chicago Election

The Chicago Mayoral Race is scheduled for February 28, 2023. If none of the candidates get the majority of votes, a runoff election will be held on April 4, 2023. Here are the important dates for the upcoming Chicago Mayoral Race:

August 30: This date officially marks the start of the election process for the Chicago Mayoral election. As per the rules, a candidate to make it to the ballot need 12,500 signature from the voters of Chicago. From August 30th, the candidates distribute the nomination petition among the Chicago Voters.

November 21-28: Filing of signed petitions to qualify for the ballot starts on November 21st. The process will continue up to November 28th.

January 30, 2023: Early voting for the Chicago Mayoral election is scheduled to begin.

February 28: The election day to elect the New Mayor of Chicago. However, the election of a New Mayor will depend only on the candidate crossing the required threshold of votes.

Results will be out on the same day, February 28th but it could take a few days depending upon the voting percentage.

April 4: The date for the run-off election if none of the candidates gets 50% of the total votes polled in the February 28th election. The top two candidates from the February 28th election will be on the ballots on this day.

Political Pulse Team

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