Youngkin Polls: 4 Reasons why Glenn Youngkin will win the 2021 Virginia Gubernatorial Elections

Glenn Youngkin Polls: 4 reasons why Glenn Youngkin will win the 2021 Virginia Gubernatorial Elections

This analysis was written on October 18th and Updated on November 2nd

Glenn Youngkin is running in the general election for governor of Virginia in November 2021. The Incumbent Governor Ralph Northam from the Democrat party is unable to seek re-election due to term limits.

Despite President Biden winning the state in 2020, it may be difficult for Democrats to repeat the similar performance. Here are the reasons why Glenn Youngkin may win the upcoming 2021 Virginia Gubernatorial Elections

Glenn Youngkin Polls: Youngkin has the MOMENTUM

Gap between McAuliffe and Youngkin in all the Polls

Gap between McAuliffe and Youngkin
October 2021Youngkin +1.0%
September 2021McAuliffe +3.9%
August 2021McAuliffe +5.2%

Glenn Youngkin Polls: Independents are shifting towards Glenn Youngkin

In Virginia, Democrat Terry McAuliffe is in the lead as Election Day gets closer, but new polling suggests that his lead is narrowing.

The Wason Center for Civic Leadership at Christopher Newport University released findings from a new poll that shows that since the center’s last poll says, the Democratic lead has shrunk and the races for governor and the lieutenant governor now stand within the survey’s margin of error.

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Glenn Youngkin needs to win 60% of the Independent votes to win the election. The latest CBS YouGov poll gives Youngkin about 53% of the Independent vote.

According to the new poll update, Independent voters have shifted mainly in favor of the Republican candidates. Republican voters are more enthusiastic to vote around 61% and Democrats at 55%.

Former Governor Terry McAuliffe holds a small lead versys Republican Glenn Youngkin at 49% to 45%. In the August poll, McAuliffe had a nine-point lead at 50% compared to Youngkin’s 41%.

Independent voters have mainly shifted to Youngkin as he gained 11 points since the August poll.

McAuliffe’s support is more among women, Black voters and voters from age 44 and the younger generation as well as voters in the Northern Virginia region. He has also gained slightly from self-identified Republicans.

Youngkin Polls: 4 Reasons why Glenn Youngkin will win the 2021 Virginia Gubernatorial Elections

Glenn Youngkin Polls: Negative impact of Biden’s approval ratings

In the closing weeks of the race, McAuliffe and Virginia Democrats have faced headwinds from Biden’s stalled infrastructure and reconciliation package in the Congress, and his Crash in approval ratings

The latest poll from Emerson College/Nexstar Media showed a 48% disapproval rating for the president in Virginia and a 1% lead for McAuliffe.

While Democrats had won many elections in Virginia before, Biden won the state by 10 points. 

Kidd added that Youngkin has still been “flirtatious” with issues that sustain the Donald Trump base of the party, such as doubts about the poll process and “critical race theory.” Youngkin also said he’d support Trump in 2024 if he is the Republican nominee.

Glenn Youngkin Polls: Youngkin is better funded Locally

In Virginia as a gubernatorial race between Democrat Terry McAuliffe and businessman Republican Glenn Youngkin is getting tougher. As per the current reports, Youngkin raised nearly $4 million more than McAulliffe with a race-leading total of $35.2.

The former Democratic governor of Virginia Terry McAuliffe was once seen as the favorite in the 2021 gubernatorial race. In McAuliffe’s last quarter in office in 2017, as per the Morning Consult survey, he had a 47% approval rating which landed him with a net 15% approval.

Since the start of the campaigns, Youngkin has brought in $35.2 million while McAuliffe has raised $31.8 million The latest report period covered on July 1 through August 31. The Republican businessman raised nearly half ($15.7 million) of his contributions and loans in this time period and spent $12.3 million. However, a hefty chunk of Youngkin’s funds has come from loans he’s made to his campaign.

Youngkin reported $4.5 million in loans between July and the end of August, and in total, he has loaned his campaign $16.5 million. Additionally, there have been several in-kind donations (totaling $212,781) from Youngkin and co.”, as per the LLC that was registered in Virginia in August 2020.

While Youngkin is currently winning the money race, McAuliffe has nearly doubled his amount of cash in the bank.

Youngkin’s demonstrated ability to lend his campaign millions of dollars could make this cash deficit moot as the election draws closer.

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