How relevant are Exit Polls ?
The most debated and the most celebrated festival of Indian Democracy, the Lok Sabha Election 2019 came to an end on Sunday, 19th May when the voting for the last phase of election concluded. Once the Election Commission of India declared the end of voting, every political alliance claimed to form the government. However, which leader or the alliance will get an opportunity to lead India will be decided on 23rd of May. In the mean time several exit polls have already given their sets of numbers concerning the Election 2019. Here we analyse the exit polls published by different agencies.
Analysis of 2014 Exit Polls
The 2014 Lok Sabha election was solely fought on the lines of corruption of the ruling government, then UPA, and the 10 years of anti-incumbency. NDA headed by BJP, riding on the Modi wave registered a thumping victory by winning 336 seats and BJP on its own won 282 Lok Sabha. BJP was able to attain majority on its own, however none of the pollsters were able to predict this. Every pollster, though predicted BJP to single largest party failed to predict that BJP was going to win majority on its own nor could they could predict the rout of Congress in 2014 Lok Sabha election. Here we share the 2014 Lok Sabha exit poll of some of the well-known pollsters.
The figure clearly shows how the pollsters in 2014 were unable to gauge the undercurrent of BJP among the voters. It was only Today’s Chanakya who predicted 300+ seats for NDA and majority on its own for BJP. The pollsters, then, completely underestimated the strength of Modi wave. However, it must be noted that in 2014, Modi and BJP were fighting against the government and in 2019 Lok Sabha election they are defending their government.
Analysis of 2019 Exit Polls
After the Election Commission announced the end of voting for 17th Lok Sabha, the exit polls of different pollsters were out. Majority of pollsters gave majority to the BJP led NDA alliance. Majority of pollsters are of the opinion that BJP may, on its own, gain the majority once again. Here we share the exit polls of 2019 Lok Sabha election.
The exit polls clearly gives an indication of Modi government once again. Today’s Chanakya which was spot on in 2014 predicting majority for BJP on its own and complete rout of Congress is again predicting the same. It expects NDA to win 340 Lok Sabha seats while in case of BJP alone, Today’s Chanakya is expecting it to win 300 seats. The agency also gives 14 seats to BJP in Odisha and 18 Lok Sabha seats in West Bengal. If the numbers of Today’s Chanakya are to be believed then the Mahagathbandhan in Uttar Pradesh seems to be failing as it predicts 65 seats for BJP and only 13 seats for Mahagathbandhan. However, the result is to be decided on 23rd May but going with the exit polls, it is clear that the country is heading towards Modi 2.0.
Relevance of Exit Polls
Exit polls are not final verdict. They may be correct or they may be wrong. In 2018 Assembly election, majority of pollster either gave the 3 states of Hindi heartland, Chhatishgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh to BJP or they gave just one state, Rajsthan to Congress and rest to BJP. However, the result proved to be totally opposite. Congress, defying all the exit polls, won all the three states of Hindi Heartland and went on to form its government. It must be noted that, Axis My India was the only pollster who predicted victory of Congress in all the three states. It had also rightly predicted the complete rout of BJP in Chhatishgarh. In 2019, Lok Sabha, Axis My India predicts NDA to be between 339-365 while UPA to be between 77-108 Lok Sabha seats. Axis also predicts for BJP to make inroads in West Bengal and Odisha. It gives 19-23 seats in Bengal and 15-19 seats in Odisha. Axis My India also predicts NDA to be between 62-68 seats in Uttar Pradesh. It must be noted that the error percentage of Axis My India has been least that is 14%.
On 23rd May 2019, the future of world largest democracy will be decided once the EVM machines are opened. The exit polls have already given Narendra Modi five more years to sit on the Throne of Delhi. Few more days and we will know which alliance will have the opportunity to rule India, till then we can either believe these exit polls or reject them completely.
Predict and Win: Who will win Lok Sabha 2019 ?
Author: Nitesh Singh