2024 Lok Sabha Opinion Poll: Who will be the Next PM of India?
2024 Lok Sabha Election Prediction: Check out the latest 2024 Lok Sabha Opinion Poll and the latest election news and updates.
The tenure of the current Lok Sabha which is the 17th Lok Sabha will come to an end on June 16th, 2024. Therefore, the Election Commission of India will have to hold the Election for the 18th Lok Sabha before the term of the current Lok Sabha ends.
The Indian lower house of the Parliament, which is the Lok Sabha has a total of 543 seats. Each seat is filled by members from the 543 Lok Sabha constituencies spread across the Indian states and Union Territories. For any political party or for any political coalition to form their government, will have to win 272 seats. A party failing to win 272 seats on its own can will have to rely on its coalition to win a minimum of 272 to form its government.
For Narendra Modi and his party, Bhartiya Janata Party, the next challenge will be the 2024 Lok Sabha election. Going into the election, Modi will have 10 years of anti-incumbency behind him. His party will be defending 10 years of work done by Narendra Modi. Therefore, will Narendra Modi Win Record 3rd Term?
Latest CSDS Survey Result
The latest survey conducted by CSDS after the completion of 9 years of the Modi Government, put Narendra Modi ahead of Rahul Gandhi by 16 points. The survey was conducted across 19 states between May 10 and 19, just after the Karnataka election result.
The findings of the survey are as follows:
- 43 percent of respondents said they wanted to see Modi as their PM which is 1 percent less compared to the 2019 elections.
- Ratings of Rahul Gandhi have improved from 23 percent to 27 percent.
- 63 percent of people believe that the country’s global stature grew under PM Modi while 23% did not agree.
- 47 percent of the respondents rated the Modi government’s development work “high”.
- Unemployment, poverty, and price rise are set to be the main election issues as per the majority of the respondents.
- 47% have given a high rating to the government’s development work
- 57% of the respondents said populist policies are essential for the poor.
Rahul Gandhi has been able to improve his acceptance as compared to 2019. Modi remains to be a better choice as Prime Minister of the country.
Who is the Next PM of India in 2024: Major Findings
- The latest Google Search data shows Congress picking up momentum compared to January 2018. This is probably due to the Bharat Jodo Yojana. Still, BJP has a substantial lead.
- PM Modi enjoys an approval rating of 76% according to the latest Morning Consult survey. Typically an approval rating of 50-55% is enough for re-election
- 2024 Lok Sabha Opinion Poll: Performance of Prime Minister Modi [2019-22]
- 53% of respondents prefer Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister in 2024
- 66% of voters think the PM is doing a Good/ Outstanding Job overall
- 48% of the voters think the Government is doing a Good/ Outstanding job on the economy
- None of the opposition candidates cross 10% in preference for PM
- NDA’s Strong Voting Blocks (2019)
- Upper Caste
- These two voting blocks make up about 55% of India’s population. NDA wins nearly 75% of its votes from the two voting blocks
- India 2024 Opinion Poll: The factors favoring Narendra Modi’s re-election in 2024 are:
- TINA (There Is No Alternative) – The TINA factor has been one of the major factors that helped Narendra Modi cruise through the 2019 Lok Sabha election. The same seems to be turning out to be a major factor that may help Narendra Modi win the consecutive 3rd. As of now, the public is yet to be convinced by any of the opposition faces who could be an alternative to Narendra Modi in 2024.
- Divided Opposition – After the 2014 Lok Sabha election, there have been talks about opposition unity. But the opposition unity has been more hype than reality. In 2019, a Mahagathbandan was formed to take on Narendra Modi and his party BJP. But by the time the Lok Sabha election in 2019 came, the Mahagathbandan looked more like an alliance between a few parties than the mega opposition coalition. The same turned out to be true even for the 2024 Lok Sabha. The opposition has more faces who are eyeing the Prime Minister’s chair and none want to compromise despite all having the same common enemy, Narendra Modi.
- Funding – The other main factor that the opposition in India lacks is funding. BJP is not short of funds and with power in major states of India, they can contest any election with a huge might. The opposition on the other hand does not have enough funds to take on the mighty BJP. Though they may show the intent of defeating Narendra Modi and the BJP, the funding issue will keep their campaigning to limited reach and BJP will be able to spread their message to the majority and the message will be loud and clear.
- Performance on key development initiatives: Apart from the previously implemented, Swacch Bharat Yojana, LPG schemes, PM Kisan Samman Yojana, and PM Awas Yojana has also caught pace.
2024 Lok Sabha Opinion Poll: Who will win 2024 election in India?
|Who is Leading?|
|Social Media Sentiments||BJP+|
Summary of Rahul Gandhi’s California Speech
Gandhi began his speech by criticizing the BJP government for its handling of the economy. He said that the government had failed to create jobs, that it had increased poverty, and that it had made India a more unequal country. He also said that the government had failed to address the rising cost of living, which was putting a strain on the middle class and the poor.
Gandhi then criticized the BJP government for its social policies. He said that the government had been divisive and that it had promoted Hindu nationalism. He also said that the government had failed to protect the rights of minorities, such as Muslims and Dalits.
Gandhi also spoke about the importance of diversity and unity in India. He said that India was a country of many different cultures, religions, and languages. He said that it was important to protect this diversity, and that the INC was committed to doing so. He also said that the INC was committed to building a more united India, where everyone had equal opportunity.
Finally, Gandhi called on the INC to do more to address the needs of marginalized communities. He said that the INC needed to do more to fight for the rights of farmers, workers, and the poor. He also said that the INC needed to do more to protect the environment and to promote sustainable development.
2024 Lok Sabha Election Prediction: Who will win the 2024 election?
- Poll Average (Last 3): NDA 298 Seats, UPA 153 Seats, and Others 97 Seats
- Google Search Share: BJP 70%, Congress 30%
- Social Media Sentiments: BJP -29%, Congress -20%
- Crowdwisdom360 Prediction: NDA to win 400+ Seats
Lok Sabha Statewise Prediction
Uttar Pradesh (80 Seats)
Opinion Poll India 2024: ABP News-Matrize poll
ABP News-Matrize poll predicts landslide victory for BJP in Uttar Pradesh. Predicted Seat:
- BJP alliance is winning 67-73 seats
- Samajwadi Party and alliance 3-6 seats
- BSP may get 0-4
- Congress 1-2 seats.
- BJP alliance may get 63 percent votes.
- SP alliance19 percent
- BSP 11 percent
- Congress 4 percent
- Others 3 percent
** Rest of the Statewise Prediction will be added in the coming days.**
2024 Lok Sabha Election: Rahul Gandhi vs Modi
Observation and Findings
- Gujarat – Modi’s Strongest State: Narendra Modi enjoys significant popularity in his home state of Gujarat. Given his strong connection with the people and his developmental track record as the former Chief Minister of the state, he tends to outperform Rahul Gandhi here.
- Andhra Pradesh – Modi underperforms Jagan Reddy: In Andhra Pradesh, Modi’s performance is relatively weaker compared to the incumbent Chief Minister, Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy. Despite the BJP’s efforts to make inroads in the state, Jagan Reddy’s popularity and regional factors seem to overshadow Modi’s influence.
- Tamil Nadu – Modi’s Weakest State: Tamil Nadu is one of the states where Modi’s influence is relatively weak. The BJP has traditionally struggled to gain a significant foothold in the state’s political landscape. Therefore, Rahul Gandhi and his party often fare better in Tamil Nadu compared to Modi and the BJP.
- West Bengal – Strong CM Mamata Banerjee: Mamata Banerjee, the Chief Minister of West Bengal, is a formidable opponent for both Modi and Rahul Gandhi. She enjoys strong regional support and has successfully defended her position against the BJP’s attempts to make significant inroads in the state.
- Maharashtra – Rahul Gandhi fares better than in Rajasthan: Rahul Gandhi tends to fare better in Maharashtra, where the Congress party has a more established presence, compared to Rajasthan. In Maharashtra, the Congress has historically performed relatively well, giving Rahul Gandhi a stronger base of support.
- Karnataka – Rahul Gandhi’s weak performance: In recently ruled Karnataka, Rahul Gandhi’s performance is not particularly strong. The state has seen a political seesaw between the BJP and the Congress, and Rahul Gandhi’s influence has been somewhat limited, indicating that he struggles to make significant headway in the state.
- BJP-ruled states – Yogi Adityanath’s strength: Yogi Adityanath, the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh, enjoys considerable popularity and strength within the BJP-ruled states. He has established a strong image and has been successful in consolidating the BJP’s position in the state.
- Weakest CM in BJP-ruled states: Among the BJP-ruled states, Bhupendra Patel is considered the weakest Chief Minister. However, this is expected as he is relatively new to the position. Eknath Shinde is also perceived as one of the weaker BJP Chief Ministers.
2024 Lok Sabha Election: Latest Developments
2024 Lok Sabha Election: Google Trends Last Week Report
- Recent Google data reveals an intriguing shift in momentum for the Congress party, as it appears to be gaining traction in several key states, including Karnataka, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh.
- In Karnataka, the Congress party seems to be experiencing a potential turnaround, as indicated by the search trends.
- Bihar, a politically significant state, also shows promising signs for the Congress party. The increasing search volume suggests a growing interest and engagement with the party’s message and candidates, potentially translating into improved electoral performance.
- Madhya Pradesh, known as a stronghold for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is witnessing a noteworthy surge in searches related to the Congress.
- Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state and a crucial battleground, remains a focal point for BJP. The majority of searches in the past week coming from Uttar Pradesh signifies a high level of public interest and involvement in the electoral process.
- Uttrakhand, a state with a relatively smaller population, is also witnessing significant search activity related to the BJP.
2024 Lok Sabha Election: Karnataka Election Report
In a momentous electoral triumph, the Congress party has secured the biggest mandate in Karnataka since 1989, clinching a staggering 135 seats out of the total 224 assembly seats. The party’s impressive performance signifies a resounding endorsement of its policies and leadership by the people of the state. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), on the other hand, faced a substantial setback, being reduced to a mere 65 seats. The Janata Dal (Secular) [JD(S)] managed to secure 19 seats, positioning itself as a key player in the political landscape.
Notably, the Congress also witnessed a significant surge in its vote share, increasing by nearly 5% compared to the 2018 elections. This rise in popularity reflects the electorate’s appreciation of the party’s efforts and initiatives. The Congress’ focused campaign, centered on development and welfare programs, struck a chord with the voters, catapulting the party to an overwhelming victory.
How Will Karnataka Assembly Election Affect 2024 Lok Sabha Elections in India?”
Karnataka, with its significant number of seats in the Lok Sabha, has emerged as a crucial determinant of power for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) demonstrated its prowess by securing an impressive victory, winning 17 out of the 28 seats in Karnataka. The party further solidified its dominance in 2019 by triumphing in 25 seats, clearly establishing Karnataka as a stronghold for the BJP.
However, the recent 2023 Assembly Election in Karnataka has marked a significant turning point. The electoral landscape witnessed a potential resurgence of the Congress party, indicating a possible shift in power dynamics. The Congress party’s performance in the assembly elections signals a renewed strength and raises the prospect of their comeback in Karnataka.
This potential return of the Congress in Karnataka carries profound implications for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in 2024. Firstly, it challenges the BJP’s stronghold in the state and presents a formidable opposition force that could potentially chip away at the BJP’s seat tally. The Congress, buoyed by its performance in the assembly elections, may mobilize its resources and strategize to regain lost ground, targeting key constituencies that were previously under BJP control.
Secondly, the outcome in Karnataka could have ripple effects on the overall political landscape of India. A resurgence of the Congress in Karnataka would inject fresh energy into the party, instilling confidence among its members and supporters nationwide. This renewed vigor could potentially translate into improved performance in other states, thereby altering the overall equation in the Lok Sabha.
Furthermore, the outcome of the 2023 Assembly Election in Karnataka could influence the perception and mood of the electorate leading up to the Lok Sabha elections. If the Congress manages to secure a substantial victory, it could boost the morale of its supporters and potentially attract swing voters, creating a wave of momentum that could favor the party in the national elections.
Electorate rejection in Karnataka: The BJP’s defeat in Karnataka, the only southern state where it has been in power, is a significant setback for the party. It indicates that the BJP’s traditional strategies may not be as effective in the southern region. However, the party has shown resilience and determination to stick to its political-governance agenda, suggesting that it will not be easily deterred by electoral setbacks.
Concerns about the road ahead: The BJP’s lack of organization in the poll-bound states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan is a cause for concern. These states are crucial for the party’s electoral strategy, and internal disarray could hinder its chances of retaining power. The BJP will need to address its internal issues and strengthen its organizational structure to increase its prospects in these states.
Recent government decisions: The promulgation of an Ordinance to nullify the Supreme Court’s ruling on the “services” issue, the withdrawal of Rs 2,000 notes, and the removal of Kiren Rijiju from the Law Ministry have surprised both critics and party insiders. These decisions demonstrate the BJP’s determination to pursue its agenda, even if it means overriding legal judgments or making unexpected moves. The party’s message is clear: it will do what it believes is necessary to further its goals, regardless of criticism or opposition.
2024 Lok Sabha Election: India Today MOTN Survey
- Approval Rating of PM Modi
2022 August: 56 %, 2023 January: 67 %
- People dissatisfied with Modi Govt.
2022 August: 32 %, 2023 January: 18 %
- Mood of The Nation Survey for Lok Sabha polls
NDA : 298 (43%), UPA : 154 (30%)
- Best Prime Minister
Narendra Modi: 47%, Atal Bihari Vajpayee: 16%, Indira Gandhi: 12%, Manmohan Singh: 08%
2024 Lok Sabha Election Opinion Poll: Latest Polls
India TV-Matrize Opinion Poll (January 29th)
- NDA (Bhartiya Janata Party+): 298 seats (Down 64 seats since July 29th) BJP Alone: 284
- UPA (INC+): 153 seats Congress Alone:69
- Others: 92 seats
India Today-CVoter (January 26th)
- NDA (Bhartiya Janata Party+): 298 seats
- UPA (INC+): 154 seats
- Others: 102 seats
Opinion Poll India 2024: Political Commentaries for Lok Sabha 2024
It will be impossible for the Bharatiya Janata Party to replicate its 2019 electoral triumph in 2024. It is ‘conceivable’ that the ruling party can lose ’50 seats’ in the Lok Sabha.
Trinamool Congress supremo Mamata Banerjee has the ability to be India’s next Prime Minister, but it is yet to be established whether the West Bengal Chief Minister could be able to pull the forces of public dismay against the BJP.
The following landscape of the 2024 Lok Sabha election has been shared by Political Analyst Amitabh Tiwari (Twitter: @politicalbaba)
2024 Lok Sabha Election Opinion Poll: Latest Video Updates
Read about Karnataka Opinion Poll 2023 here
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Lok Sabha Election Prediction 2024: Last 7 Days
- BJP: 66% (as compared to 65% around the same time in 2018)
- INC: 34%
- Narendra Modi: 81% (as compared to 90% same time in 2018)
- Rahul Gandhi: 19%
2024 Lok Sabha Election Opinion Poll: Social Media Sentiments
BJP vs Congress
- BJP: -21%
- Congress: -25%
Modi vs Gandhi
- Narendra Modi: -2%
- Rahul Gandhi: -9%
Lok Sabha Opinion Polls 2024: Narendra Modi vs Rahul Gandhi
PM Modi, Key Strengths (As per a wide range of experts)
- Perceived as Strong and Decisive
- Strong Communication Skills, and ability to connect with masses via multiple communication platforms
- Efficiency in Implementing Government Programs and Policies
Rahul Gandhi, Key Strengths (As per a wide range of experts)
- Perceived as focussed towards farmers, rural population, poor, and minorities
- Seen as more empathetic
PM Modi, Key Weaknesses (as per a wide range of experts)
- Ability to manage the economy effectively
- Lack of Inclusiveness, particularly among minorities
Rahul Gandhi, Key Weaknesses (as per a wide range of experts)
- Lack of experience in Governance
- Inability to communicate effectively and clearly with voters
- Broader Political skills
2024 Lok Sabha Election Prediction: Has Any Leader Won Record 3rd Term?
Before Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister of India, India had 13 Prime Ministers. However, only two Prime Ministers have been elected for three consecutive terms. The first one was the first Prime Minister of India Jawahar Lal Nehru and the second one was his daughter Indira Gandhi. None other than Nehru and Indira Gandhi have been able to win more than 2 consecutive terms.
Jawahar Lal Nehru won the 4th term but was unable to complete his 4th term as he died during his 4th tenure as Prime Minister of India.
2019 Lok Sabha Election Summary
In 2014, Narendra Modi and his political party Bhartiya Janata Party won the Lok Sabha election. BJP on its own won 282 seats while the coalition, NDA won a total of 336. It was the first time since 1984 that a party had won enough seats to govern without the support of other parties. BJP on its own got a 31% vote share which was the lowest by any party winning majority on its own since independence.
In 2019, after five years of anti-incumbency, the political pundits were predicting that BJP will emerge as the single largest party DNA Exclusive | Jungle raj, legacy of corruption, 1 million jobs: Why ‘Nitish for PM in 2024’ is easier said not win a majority of its own.
The result surprised many as Narendra Modi-led BJP won 303 seats and the BJP lead coalition NDA (National Democratic Alliance) won 353 seats. Rahul Gandhi-led Congress was once again decimated. They managed to win only 52 seats. BJP managed to improve its vote share too, from 31% in 2014, BJP now got a 37.4% vote share.
Opinion Poll India 2024 Conclusion
The 2024 Lok Sabha election is still two years from now and several state elections are to take place before it. If the opposition is to defeat Narendra Modi and BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha election they will have to win most of the upcoming Vidhan Sabha election.
The state that will go for election before the 2024 Lok Sabha election in Gujarat, Himachal, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh, Tripura, Nagaland, and Meghalaya. Barring Rajasthan and Chattisgarh, the rest of the states have either a BJP government or a BJP coalition government. The opposition needs to win a maximum of these states in order to keep their hopes high for the 2024 Lok Sabha election.
Therefore, considering the several factors, it can be said that Narendra Modi may be able to return to power once again unless the opposition comes together and place a strong face against him.
2024 Opinion Poll India: States Elections To Be Conducted Along With LS 2024
Along with the Lok Sabha election in 2024, a few states will also be going to the polls to elect their new Government. The states where elections will be held to elect their new Government are:
- Arunachal Pradesh, Current Government: BJP Chief Minister: Pema Khandu
- Sikkim, Current Government: SKM Chief Minister: Prem Singh Tamang
- Odisha, Current Government: BJD Chief Minister: Naveen Patnaik
- Andhra Pradesh Government: YSR Congress Party Chief Minister: YS Jagan Mohan Reddy