Madhya Pradesh Opinion Poll 2023: Will BJP Return to Power Yet Again?

The Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections, scheduled to take place after or in November, are of immense importance to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The party is confronted with the challenge of anti-incumbency, making these elections a critical battleground. Coming on the heels of the Karnataka debacle, where the BJP encountered unexpected setbacks, safeguarding Madhya Pradesh has become a top priority for the party.

A defeat for the BJP in these assembly elections could prove to be a major stumbling block as they gear up for the highly anticipated 2024 Lok Sabha election. It is noteworthy that in 2019, the BJP secured a staggering 28 out of the 29 Lok Sabha seats in Madhya Pradesh, highlighting their dominant position. However, a reversal of fortune in the upcoming assembly elections could have significant implications.

Madhya Pradesh Opinion Poll 2023: Who is leading? May 27th

  • Google Trends: BJP
  • Social Media Sentiment: Congress

Madhya Pradesh Opinion Poll 2023: Observations and Insights

  • Most data suggests it will once again be a close contest between BJP and Congress party
  • Shivraj Chouhan is likely to struggle once again. Here is how he performed on various development metrics
    • Per Capita GDP growth (Not in Top 5)
    • Agri growth (Not in Top 5)
    • Rural Employment (Top 5)
    • Health Index (Not in Top 5)
    • Law and Order (Not in Top 5)
    • CARE ratings on all metrics (Not in Top 5)
  • Madhya Pradesh was a top-performing state until 2014 but its performance has deteriorated over the last 8 years. That said, MP is not poorly governed or in the bottom, It is mostly in the top 10 on most metrics. This is why the election is likely to be competitive and not one-sided
  • Further, MP Electorate does not change their votes easily like say most Southern States. This gives BJP a Good starting point against the Congress party.
  • However, the Congress which was ousted from power after numerous Scindia-backed MLAs defected to the BJP is on firm grounding to return to power
    • Soon after it came to power, the Congress party passed a bill in the House for 27% reservation for OBCs in Jobs. This inflated the total quota to above 50% and attracted a Supreme Court Stay. The BJP countered this with reservations in the local elections for OBCs. The Congress is likely to heavily use this issue to swing at least some votes in its favor
    • The Party is once again relying on demand-side giveaways (5 promises, covered later) similar to Karnataka to push marginal votes in its favor. PM Modi has been the biggest beneficiary of these giveaways (also called freebies by many) through his Kisan Samman Yojana where cash was handed out to voters just before the 2019 election. PM Modi has also kept extending the PM Garib Kalyan Yojana until last year and this may help the party in the UP Election.
    • But it won’t be easy for the Congress party as the BJP will start the election with 38-40% vote. Congress will have to find ways to drag itself above 45% which could give it 120-130 seats and a majority.
  • No official Polls have been completed so far though a few Twitter handles claim to have completed some polls.

Madhya Pradesh Election Opinion Poll 2023: Google Trends and Social Media Sentiments

Google Trends

Social Media Sentiments

  • BJP: -16%
  • Congress: -11%

Madhya Pradesh Opinion Poll 2023: Latest MP Election News

  • Dr. Hemant Lariya, the brother of BJP MLA Pradeep Lariya from the Naryavali Vidhan Sabha constituency in Sagar, Madhya Pradesh, has joined the Congress party along with hundreds of supporters. The move has caused a significant political upheaval in the region, with several other elected representatives, including those from Satna, Morena, Harda, and Balaghat districts, also defecting to the Congress.
  • Rajya Sabha MP and former chief minister Digvijaya Singh has said that Madhya Pradesh Congress president Kamal Nath will be the party’s presumptive chief minister in the 2023 assembly election. Senior Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi Vadra will kickstart the assembly poll campaign for the party in Madhya Pradesh on June 12.
  • The Congress party has commenced preparations for the upcoming Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections scheduled to be held later this year in November-December. In line with this, a crucial meeting of senior leaders of Madhya Pradesh Congress was held at the party headquarters on Monday.
  • The meeting, chaired by Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge, saw the participation of prominent leaders including former party president Rahul Gandhi, General Secretary (Organization) K.C. Venugopal, former Chief Minister Digvijay Singh, Chairman of Madhya Pradesh Congress Committee and former Chief Minister Kamal Nath, as well as State In-charge Jai Prakash Agarwal, among several other senior leaders. The discussions primarily focused on organizational strategies and election preparedness.
  • According to sources, the meeting deliberated on the key issues that the party will address during the election campaign. The leaders discussed various aspects of the electoral process and emphasized the need to connect with the public on issues such as development, farmers’ welfare, unemployment, and healthcare, among others.
  • The Congress party aims to strengthen its position in Madhya Pradesh and regain power in the upcoming Assembly elections. The leaders expressed their commitment to reaching out to the masses effectively and formulating a comprehensive agenda that resonates with the aspirations of the people.
  • With the initiation of election preparations and the active involvement of senior leaders, the Congress party is gearing up to contest the Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections with a focused approach and a well-crafted strategy.
  • The electoral battle in Madhya Pradesh is expected to witness intense competition between various political parties, and the Congress party’s efforts to strengthen its presence in the state reflect its determination to make a mark in the upcoming polls.
  • As the election season unfolds, the political landscape in Madhya Pradesh is set to witness heightened activities and fervent campaigning as parties strive to woo the voters and secure their mandate.
  • The Congress party’s preparations, as showcased in the recent meeting, indicate a renewed vigor and determination to emerge as a strong contender in the Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections. The coming months will witness further developments and strategies as the political parties gear up for a significant electoral showdown in the state.

Madhya Pradesh Opinion Poll 2023: Party Promises

  • The Congress party has made five promises to the people of Madhya Pradesh before the assembly election scheduled to be held this year.
    • The promises include a gas cylinder at ₹500, ₹1500 for every woman per month, 100 units of free electricity, a farm loan waiver, and implementation of the old pension scheme.

Madhya Pradesh Opinion Poll 2023: Demography

Religions

  • Hindu: 90.9%
  • Muslim: 6.6%

Urban-Rural

  • Urban: 28%
  • Rural: 72%

Overall Caste Mix

  • Forward: 15% (Estimated)
  • OBC: 48% (Estimated)
  • SC: 16%
  • ST: 21%

Madhya Pradesh Opinion Poll 2023: Summary of Previous Elections

In 2018, the Indian National Congress (INC) emerged as the single largest party, securing 114 seats. However, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was not far behind, with 109 seats.

  • Despite falling short of a majority, the INC swiftly moved to secure support from other parties and independent MLAs to bolster their claim to form the government. They managed to gain the backing of one MLA from the Samajwadi Party, two MLAs from the Bahujan Samaj Party, and four independent MLAs. With this combined support, the INC demonstrated its ability to establish a majority in the assembly.
  • However, the stability of the Kamal Nath-led government faced a severe blow as 22 sitting MLAs backed by Jyotiraditya Schindia tendered their resignations. This development, combined with subsequent political developments, led to Kamal Nath’s resignation on 20 March 2020. In a turn of events, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, representing the BJP, reclaimed the position of Chief Minister on 23 March 2020.

In 2013, the BJP emerged as the clear winner, securing a commanding tally of 165 seats in the legislative assembly. This remarkable achievement solidified their dominance and positioned them as the leading political force in the state. The Congress party, a prominent contender, secured a respectable but distant second place, securing 58 seats. Meanwhile, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) made a modest presence with 4 seats.

Muskan Arora

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