Rajasthan Elections 2023 Opinion Poll: Who will win Rajasthan?

Rajasthan Elections 2023 Opinion Poll: Early trends on Google and social media indicate the BJP leading the Congress in Rajasthan, suggesting a potential shift in electoral dynamics.

The upcoming Rajasthan elections, set to take place in December or earlier, have become a crucial battleground for the Congress Momentum. The party is faced with the daunting challenge of anti-incumbency, which adds immense significance to these elections. Building on the momentum gained from their success in Karnataka, the Congress is striving to overcome the odds and secure a victory in Rajasthan.

Meanwhile, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) finds itself in a position where it must make a strong comeback in the state. With the Lok Sabha Elections scheduled for the following year, Rajasthan’s significance is further magnified for the BJP. In the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections, the party had an impressive performance, securing 24 out of the 25 seats in Rajasthan.

Rajasthan Election Latest Developments

Modi In Rajasthan

PM Narendra Modi kicked off his Rajasthan election campaign with a rally in Ajmer. In his speech, Modi targeted Congress and reminded them of their contribution to the nation. Here is a brief summary of PM Modi’s Ajmer rally speech:

  • In his speech, Prime Minister Narendra Modi began by paying tribute to the women of India, recognizing their crucial role in the country’s progress. He stated that women are considered the backbone of India and emphasized that they are the real strength of the nation.
  • The Prime Minister proceeded to discuss several government initiatives aimed at empowering women, including the Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana, Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana, and Beti Bachao Beti Padhao campaign. He highlighted the positive impact of these initiatives on the lives of millions of women across India.
  • Modi further accused the Congress government of betraying India’s ex-servicemen by failing to implement the One Rank One Pension (OROP) scheme, which was promised in 2006 but never executed. In contrast, he highlighted the BJP government’s successful implementation of the OROP scheme in 2016 and emphasized that arrears were paid to retired ex-servicemen who had been waiting for the scheme’s implementation.
  • Prime Minister Narendra Modi accused the Congress party of engaging in corrupt practices. He alleged that the party took an 85% commission cut in every development project, which he believed hindered India’s overall progress.
  • Modi also emphasized the importance of gender equality and expressed the government’s unwavering commitment to creating a society where women are treated as equals. He stressed that women empowerment is not just a mere slogan but a dedicated mission for the government.
  • Towards the end of his speech, Prime Minister Modi reiterated that India is a land of opportunities for women and encouraged them to pursue their dreams without limitations. He conveyed the message that women in India have limitless potential, asserting that “the sky is the limit.”

Sachin Pilot and Ashok Gehlot

Ahead of the Rajasthan Assembly polls, Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and Tonk MLA Sachin Pilot, who had been engaged in a bitter intra-party rivalry, have seemingly reached a ceasefire. The Congress party recently announced that Gehlot and Pilot would join forces to contest the election unitedly and secure victory for the state. This comes after both Gehlot and Pilot met Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge at his official residence.

Congress Election Promise

The Congress party in Rajasthan has announced that it will provide free electricity up to 100 units and a fixed rate for the next 100 units.

Rajasthan Elections 2023 Opinion Poll

Rajasthan, with its 200 Legislative Assembly seats, finds itself in a familiar scenario akin to other Hindi heartland states. In this political arena, the main contenders are the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress party. The Congress has historically exhibited a robust organization and significant financial backing in the Hindi heartlands, including neighboring Madhya Pradesh.

However, it is noteworthy that since 1998, no party has managed to overcome the challenge of anti-incumbency in Rajasthan. The alternating trend of victory between the BJP and the Congress has been a prominent feature in the state’s political landscape.

The Congress party, leveraging its strong organization and financial resources, has often been a formidable force in Rajasthan. They have capitalized on anti-incumbency sentiments to secure victory in the state, only to face the challenge of maintaining their hold in the subsequent elections. Similarly, the BJP, with its own strategies and party machinery, has also succeeded in breaking the cycle of anti-incumbency and emerged victorious in alternating years.

This alternating trend of electoral outcomes in Rajasthan adds an intriguing layer of uncertainty and excitement to the political landscape.

Rajasthan Elections 2023 Opinion Poll: Who is leading?

  • Google Trends: Bjp
  • Social Media Sentiment: Bjp

Rajasthan Elections 2023 Opinion Poll: Google Trends and Social Media Sentiments

Google Trends

  • BJP: 59% (2018 November: 46%)
  • Congress: 41% (2018: 54%)

Social Media Sentiments

  • BJP: -9%
  • Congress: -11%

Rajasthan Elections 2023 Opinion Poll: Latest Developments

  • The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has formulated a strategy and set a target of winning the upcoming state assembly elections at the end of the year, aiming for 180 seats.
  • In the coming days, the party will work on its electoral strategy based on this target. A meeting of the BJP State Working Committee was held at the Jain Vishwa Bharati premises in Ladnu, Nagaur district.
  • During the meeting, discussions were held on issues related to corruption, crime, paper leaks, high electricity prices, and the ongoing conflict between Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and former Deputy Chief Minister Sachin Pilot, which have taken place during the Congress government’s four and a half years in power.
  • In a bid to garner public support and create a favorable environment ahead of the upcoming assembly elections, the Congress-led government in Rajasthan has taken a proactive stance on religious matters. The state’s Department of Devasthan (Religious Places) has announced the hoisting of yellow flags in all government-owned temples on the auspicious occasion of Guru Pushya.
  • The decision to hoist the yellow flags, symbolizing spirituality and auspiciousness, was made to invoke religious sentiments among the people. The initiative commenced on Thursday, May 25, starting with the iconic Kalki Temple located in Jaipur’s Badi Chaupar area.
  • With the assembly elections scheduled to take place at the end of the year, the Ashok Gehlot-led government appears to be employing strategies aimed at connecting with the electorate on a deeper level. By emphasizing religious practices and promoting a sense of spirituality, the government hopes to consolidate its support base.

Rajasthan Elections Opinion Poll 2023: Summary of Previous Elections

The Legislative Assembly elections in Rajasthan have witnessed a fascinating pattern of alternating victories between the major political parties, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Indian National Congress (INC). These elections have had a significant impact on the state’s political landscape, and as a political pundit, it is intriguing to analyze the trends and outcomes.

In 2008, the BJP, which was the ruling party at the time, faced defeat at the hands of the INC. This victory showcased the Congress party’s ability to connect with the electorate and effectively address the prevailing anti-incumbency sentiments. The INC’s triumph signaled a desire for change among the people of Rajasthan.

However, in 2013, the tables turned, and the BJP, led by Vasundhara Raje, emerged victorious, defeating the Ashok Gehlot-led INC government. The BJP’s victory demonstrated the party’s resilience and its ability to capitalize on the sentiments of the electorate. Vasundhara Raje was being widely hailed as the next incumbent, and the BJP’s win in Rajasthan solidified its position in the state.

The 2018 Legislative Assembly elections brought forth an interesting outcome. The INC emerged as the single largest party with 100 seats but fell short of a majority by only one seat. The BJP secured 73 seats, a significant decline from its previous absolute majority. The INC managed to form the government by joining forces with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).

This election result showcased the power of alliances and the ability of political parties to adapt to the changing dynamics of the electorate. The INC’s victory, albeit with external support, indicated a resurgence of the party’s popularity and the people’s inclination toward a different political alternative.

Rajasthan Elections Opinion Poll 2023: Constituency Analysis

  1. District-wise Distribution: The constituencies are spread across multiple districts in Rajasthan, including Ganganagar, Hanumangarh, Churu, Jhunjhunu, Sikar, Jaipur, Alwar, Dausa, Karauli, Bharatpur, Sawai Madhopur, Ajmer, Nagaur, Pali, Jodhpur, Barmer, Jalore, Udaipur, Dungarpur, Banswara, Chittorgarh, Pratapgarh, Bhilwara, Bundi, Kota, Baran, and Jhalawar.
  2. Reserved Constituencies: There are several reserved constituencies in Rajasthan. These include constituencies reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST). The reserved constituencies ensure representation and political participation for marginalized communities.
  3. Lok Sabha Constituencies: Each Vidhan Sabha constituency is associated with a corresponding Lok Sabha (Parliamentary) constituency. The Lok Sabha constituencies determine the representation of the region at the national level.
  4. Elector Strength: The elector strength of each constituency varies, ranging from a few hundred thousand to over three hundred thousand. This indicates the size and diversity of the constituencies in terms of the number of eligible voters.

Rajasthan Elections Opinion Poll 2023: Demography

state’s population is diverse and multifaceted. According to the 2011 Census of India, Rajasthan had a total population of 68,548,437, accounting for approximately 5.66% of India’s population. With a population density of 201 people per square kilometer, Rajasthan is home to a significant number of individuals.

In terms of gender distribution, Rajasthan had a sex ratio of 928 women per 1000 men in 2011, slightly lower than the national average of 943. This indicates a gender imbalance within the state and highlights the need for continued efforts to address issues related to women’s empowerment and gender equality.

The native Rajasthani people constitute the majority of the state’s population. Additionally, Rajasthan is home to a significant Sindhi population, who migrated from Sindh province (now in Pakistan) during the partition of India and Pakistan in 1947. This adds to the cultural diversity of the state.

Religiously, Hindus form the majority in Rajasthan, comprising 88.49% of the population. Muslims make up 9.07% of the population, while Sikhs and Jains account for 1.27% and 0.91%, respectively. These religious demographics play a crucial role in shaping the social fabric and political dynamics of the state.

When considering the caste composition of Rajasthan, various groups hold significant influence. Brahmins, although their exact percentage varies in different reports, are an important community, constituting a notable portion of the population. Other influential groups include Scheduled Castes (SC) at 18%, Scheduled Tribes (ST) at 13%, Jats at 12%, Gurjars and Rajputs at 9% each, and Meenas at 7%. These caste-based demographics provide insight into the social and political dynamics within Rajasthan.

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