Goa Election Opinion Poll 2022: BJP 16 seats, Congress 12 Seats
The term of the current Goa Assembly expires on 15th March 2022. BJP has been in power in Goa since 2012, therefore in the 2022 Goa election, BJP will be defending its work for the last 10 years.
The BJP will be fighting under the leadership of its CM Pramod Sawant who was appointed the CM after the Late CM Manohar Parrikar passed away in 2019 due to Cancer.
The BJP formed a govt. in 2017 initially with the aid of the MGP and GFP but later ejected them out of the cabinet after convincing many MGP and Congress MLAs to defect to their side giving them enough to form the government on their own.
Goa is a state with many political parties, will Congress come back to power on its own or will it have to weave a coalition with other smaller parties to return to power?
Will Pramod Sawant be able to defeat a 10-year anti-incumbency and lead the BJP to victory?
Not to mention new entrants and aspiring national parties like the TMC, AAP, and Shiv Sena who are seeking to expand within the state and have been working hard to do so
Goa Election Opinion Poll 2022: Latest Opinion Polls
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On Monday the single-phase Assembly elections in Goa saw a high voter turnout of 78.94 percent in polling for the 40 assembly seats.
The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Congress, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), and the Trinamool Congress (TMC) are major political parties in this election.
Goa’s capital Panaji will be the most-watched political battle that is witnessing a strong fight among BJP leader Atanasio Monserrate, independent candidate Utpal Parrikar and Congress’ Elvis Gomes.
The state of Goa to vote for 40 seats in the upcoming assembly elections. The Goa Assembly Election will be conducted for just one phase, i.e. in the second phase of the Assembly Elections 2022. The date of polling in Goa is February 14, 2021. The results will be declared on 10th March.
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Goa Election Opinion Poll 2022: Situation of Political Parties in the Assembly
Goa is a small state. It’s 3702 Km 2 holds about 18 lakh people
The people vote to elect representatives to 40 Assembly Constituencies and 2 Lok Sabha Constituencies.
Every assembly constituency in Goa has about 25,000 to 30,000 electors. This means, in a two-cornered fight, a candidate only needs about 12,000 votes to win. In a three-cornered fight, even 3,000-4,000 votes are enough to secure a victory, so parties need to ensure theirs is the strongest candidate in the fray. Since the size of each constituency is so small, this makes it easier for small parties and independents to win seats and hold influence throughout the state.
Personality-based politics is dominant in Goa and not party /cadre-based as is the case in the rest of India.
The small size of constituencies helps public representatives build an individual following where they are confident of being re-elected irrespective of the party they contest from. Money and muscle power are key to success
As of now, this is the situation of each party after many INC MLAs defected and joined the BJP
|Party||Number of MLAs|
|TMC||1(resigned from assembly)|
The situation may change in the coming months as defections have become fairly common in Goa recently. Currently, 2 Congress MLAs are disillusioned with the party, and BJP MLAs who may not get a ticket or discontent for other reasons may join other parties.
Goa Election Opinion Poll 2022: Religious and Caste Composition
A native of Goa is called a Goan. Goa has a population of 1.459 million residents as per the 2011 Census. The migrant, or non-Goan Indian origin, population is currently over 50% of the resident population, outnumbering the native ethnic Goan population.
Konkani is the official language of the state and is the mother tongue of 66% of the people followed by Marathi (10.88%), Hindi(7.64%), and Kannada(5.65%)
Casteism and Identity politics doesn’t hold much sway in Goa but it is still important and it helps explain a lot of the state’s politics
As per the 2011 Census
More than 90% of Christians in the state are Roman Catholics, a legacy of the Portuguese Colonial Rule which lasted for 450 years.
Important Hindu groups of Goa:-
1) Goud Saraswat Brahmin:- They are a landowning caste and punch above their weight. They have played an important role in politics and other administrative jobs in the state since Independence. The Late CM of Goa Manohar Parrikar was one of them
They claim to comprise 16-18% of the population. They aren’t as numerous as the Bhandari community in terms of influencing a poll outcome, as its voter population is fragmented across the state. However, the community leaders, due to their feudal lineage and being landlords, still wield influence over the locals. Pramod Sawant the present CM of Goa is a Maratha. Many Marathas come under the OBC category
They come under the OBC category and claim to comprise 30% of the state, North Goa Lok Sabha Seat holds a high proportion of this community. From 1986 only a Bhandari has won the election from this seat. Shripad Yesso Naik, the current minister of Tourism is a member of this community
There is no seat reserved for Tribals in the state but they comprise 12% of the population. Gaudas , Kunbis, Velips, Dhodia, Dubla (Halpati), Naikda (Talavia),Siddi (Nayaka), Varli are the various tribes in this state
Other OBCs communities in the state are Dhangars, Dhobis, Navis, Vishwakarma, Christian barbers, Mahars, and render
SCs comprise only 2% of the state and have only one seat reserved for them
Goa Election Opinion Poll 2022: How Goa Voted in 2019 Lok Sabha Election?
Goa has two Lok Sabha seats, and both the seats were held by BJP after the 2014 Lok Sabha election. However, in 2019 both BJP and INC won 1 seat each.
BJP won the North Goa’s seat by a huge margin while in South Goa it lost to INC by around 2.5% vote difference.
BJP got a massive 51.19% vote share, however, it was 2% less than what it had won in 2014 while Congress got a 42.92% vote share a massive increase of 6.3% as compared to Lok Sabha 2014 election.
In terms of Assembly segments, BJP was ahead in 26 segments while INC was ahead in 14 assembly segments.
Goa Assembly Election 2022 Opinion Polls: What happened in the 2017 Election?
The 2017 Goa Assembly election was held on 4th February 2017 and the result was declared on March 18, 2017. After the result, no party was given the mandate to rule by the people of Goa.
In 40 seats Goa Assembly, Indian National Congress emerged as the single largest party with 17 seats, BJP won 13 seats while GFP and MGP won 3 seats each. 4 seats were won by independents.
Despite being the single largest party, INC failed to stitch an alliance with any of the smaller parties, and BJP along with GFP and MGP and support of independents formed its government. The alliance was finalized only after the then Defence Minister of India, Manohar Parrikar was made Chief Ministerial face of Goa.
Currently, Pramod Sawant is the Chief Minister of Goa. He was sworn in as CM of Goa after the demise of then CM Manohar Parrikar in 2019.
Goa Election Opinion Poll 2022: What has changed since the 2017 Assembly?
Since the 2017 Goa Assembly election, state politics has seen a massive change. The veteran politician of Goa and former Chief Minister, Manohar Parrikar died in 2019 and the then speaker of Goa Assembly, Pramod Sawant was sworn in as Chief Minister.
After the 2017 Goa Assembly election, Congress had 17 seats and BJP has just 13 seats, but now BJP has 27 seats and Congress has just 5 seats. The allies of BJP GFP and MGP left the alliance.
Recently elections for 5 Municipal Councils were held in Goa. BJP backed panel won 3 Municipal Councils of Quepem, Mormugao, and Sanguem while in Mapusa it fell short majority and in Margao Municipal Council a combined panel of Congress and MGP won the majority.
Goa Election 2022 Opinion Poll: What is expected in the 2022 Assembly election?
In the 2022 Goa Assembly election, BJP may contest the election all alone while Congress may contest in an alliance with local parties of Goa.
Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP is set to try its luck once again in state after failing to win any seats in 2017.
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