Israel Election Polls 2022: Netanyahu wins a narrow majority. Religious Zionists win 14

November 2, 2022

Latest Israel Election Polls 2022: Netanyahu+: 60, Lapid+: 56, Hadash and Ta’al: 4

Google Search Share (7 Days Average): Netanyahu: 57%, Lapid: 43%

Social Media Sentiment: Lapid: -11.7%, Netanyahu: -26%

Crowdwisdom360 Prediction: Netanyahu-led alliance to win a simple majority.

Election Day Update (Exit Polls)

Netanyahu Block Details

Total:62

Likud – 31 (Forecast 31)
RZP and Otzma Yehudit – 14 (Forecast 14)
Shas – 10 (Forecast 8)
UTJ – 7 (Forecast 7)

Government Block Details

Total: 53

Yesh Atid – 23 (Forecast 24)
National Unity – 11 (Forecast 11)
Labor – 5 (Forecast 5)
Yisrael Beiteinu – 5 (Forecast 5)
Ra’am – 5 (Forecast 4)
Meretz – 4 (Forecast 5)

Israel is set to vote for the 5th time in 3 years to elect new members of the Knesset. The Naftali Bennet and Yair Lapid coalition lasted less than 2 years. Benjamin Netanyahu now has another opportunity to return to power after being ousted in 2021 after 12 years.

The Israel election 2022 is scheduled for November 1st, 2022

Israel Election Polls 2022: Observations and Insights

Benjamin Netanyahu is well placed to win the 2022 Israel Election
Why is Benjamin Netanyahu winning again?
- While voters haven’t changed their minds by much, the decimation of the Yamina has helped Netanyahu
- Yamina was previously a partner of Benjamin Netanyahu and won 7 seats in 2021. It then aligned with Yesh Atid to form the Government with Naftali Bennet as the Prime Minister.
- However, the party fragmented over the last few months, and the bulk of their votes have consolidated with RZP OTY, part of Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition.
- This consolidation has helped Netanyahu to cross the 60 Threshold and perhaps form a full-tenure Government
Can Yair Lapid’s coalition win the election?
- With less than 5 days to go before the election, the chances are low if not impossible
- Lapid Trails Netanyahu 36-43 on preferred Prime Minister (Kantar Survey). This is not bad but not great either
- Lapid has managed to reduce Netanyahu’s lead on Google Search from 48 points to 18 points.
- All of this is translating into more seats for Yesh Atid but the gains are coming from the Left rather than from moderate/swing voters
- With the low levels of swing from right to left and vice versa, the chances of a Lapid win are low.

Israel Election Polls 2022 Prediction: Who is Gaining?

Polls: Likud+
Google Search Volume: Lapid
Social Media Sentiment: Netanyahu

Israel Elections: Former PM Benjamin Netanyahu vying a comeback

Israel Election Polls 2022: Latest Polls

Average of all Polls	October 31st
*Netanyahu Block*	60
*Government Block*	56
Kantar	October 27th
*Netanyahu Block*	60
*Government Block*	56
Camil Fuchs	October 24th
*Netanyahu Block*	60
*Government Block*	56
Midgam	October 24th
*Netanyahu Block*	60
*Government Block*	56

Israel Polls 2022: Netanyahu Block vs Government Block

Netanyahu Block Details

Maximum: 62, Minimum: 59

Likud – Kantar (31), Camil Fuchs (31), Midgam (32)
RZP and Otzma Yehudit – Kantar (14), Camil Fuchs (14), Midgam (13)
Shas – Kantar (8), Camil Fuchs (8), Midgam (8)
UTJ – Kantar (7), Camil Fuchs (7), Midgam (7)

Government Block Details

Maximum: 56, Minimum: 54

Yesh Atid – Kantar (24), Camil Fuchs (27), Midgam (24)
National Unity – Kantar (11), Camil Fuchs (11), Midgam (13)
Labor – Kantar (6), Camil Fuchs (4), Midgam (5), Kantar (5)
Yisrael Beiteinu – Kantar (6), Camil Fuchs (6), Midgam (5)
Ra’am – Kantar (4), Camil Fuchs (4), Midgam (4)
Meretz – Kantar (5)Camil Fuchs (4), Midgam (5)

Hadash and Taál

Predicted Seats: 4

Last 7 Days

Benjamin Netanyahu: 57%
Yair Lapid: 43%

Last 30 Days

Benjamin Netanyahu: 69%
Yair Lapid: 31%

Last 7 Days

Netanyahu: -26%
Lapid: -11.6%

Israel Election Polls: Parties and Alliances

Anti-Netanyahu Alliance or Current Government Parties: Yesh Atid, Blue & White, New Hope, Yamina, Labor, Yisrael Beiteinu, Meretz, and Ra’am.

Note: Blue & White and New Hope are now running jointly as National Unity while Yamina is now running jointly with The Jewish Home under the Jewish Home name.

Netanyahu Block: Likud, Shas, Religious Zionist Party, Otzma Yehudit, and United Torah Judaism (UTJ).

Note: Religious Zionist Party and Otzma Yehudit previously ran as Religious Zionist Party. However, they split and again came together.

Joint List: Previously Union of Hadash, Ta’al, and Balad.

Now Hadash and Ta’al are together while Balad is running solo.

Check out our other Top Predictions

Latest UK Opinion Poll
Track all the Polls for Upcoming US Mid-Term Election
Justin Trudeau Approval Ratings
Is the Ukraine War coming to an end? Read Here
Biden vs Trump

Israel Election Opinion Poll: What Happened in the Last Election?

The last General election in Isreal was held on March 23rd, 2021. It was the 4th election in a span of 2 years after the first three elections failed to provide a majority to any of the blocks.

A total of 39 parties were registered to contest the election and after the election, a total of 13 parties had their representation in the 24th Knesset. Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud was able to send the maximum number of MKs to the parliament. Likud won 30 seats which were 7 seats less than the seats won by his party in the 3rd General election.

Israel Election Opinion Poll 2022: Last Election Result

Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid was the biggest gainer as the party won 17 seats, which is 4 seats more than the last election, and received a vote share of around 14%. However, none of the parties or coalition came close to the majority, and in the end, anti-Netanyahu block support by the Arab party was formed under the leadership of Neftali Bennet and Yair Lapid.

Neftali Bennet, the leader of the Yamina Party went on to become the Prime Minister of Isreal putting an end to the 15-year rule of Benjamin Netanyahu. Here is a complete list of MKs from all the parties:

Israel Election Opinion Poll: How is the Isreal Election Conducted?

The members of the Knessets are elected by closed-list proportional representation in a single nationwide constituency. The threshold for the election is set around 3.25%, that is a party to qualify for having representation in the Parliament must have a minimum 3.25% vote share.

Added to it, two parties can sign a surplus vote agreement if they run together on the same list. In the last Israeli election, these parties signed a surplus vote agreement:

Yamina and New Hope
Yesh Atid and Yisrael Beiteinu
Blue and White and New Economic Party
Likud and Religious Zionist Party
Israeli Labor Party and Meretz
Shas and United Torah Judaism

Since the announcement of dissolving the Parliament by Prime Minister Neftali Bennett, several polls have been released for the upcoming 5th General election. None of the polls have shown any of the blocks having a clear majority. However, one thing is certain as per the polls, Likud is set to gain around 5-6 MKs in the upcoming election.

If this time, Likud manages to stitch an alliance with its former partners, like Yisrael Beiteinu, or get Neftali’s Yamina and New Hope to their side, Benjamin Netanyahu could once again become the Prime Minister of Israel.

Israel Election Opinion Poll 2022: Conclusion

The next Israeli election may be held in the last week of October. The current coalition minus the Ra’am is in no place to win the majority mark. Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud and his RW block may fall short of the majority by 2 seats as per the latest poll.