Bengal Election 2021 Exit Poll: Will it be TMC again or will it be BJP?
The final phase of Bengal Assembly election 2021 concluded on 29th April and the Bengal Election 2021 Exit Polls are out.
Both BJP and TMC claim to have won maximum seats. However, which party has won maximum seats will be decided on 2nd May. As of now he is the summary of Exit polls of Bengal election:
The Bengal Exit Poll for 2021 Assembly election shows change of government in the state. As per the Bengal Exit Poll 2021 Prediction by Crowdwisdom360, BJP may win 149 seats while TMC may win 129 seats.
With voting for last and final phase of Bengal election coming to an end today, the fate of Bengal has been sealed in EVM. However, before the results are published on 2nd May, we have conducted a survey after the voting in most of the districts of Bengal. As per our assessment, Mamata Banerjee may fail to rule Bengal for the third time.
Our Bengal election exit poll show change of government in state. As per our poll, BJP may win 149 seats while TMC may win 129 seats.
Here is the summary of the Bengal Election Exit Poll for 2021 Assembly election:
| BJP | TMC | Left+Congress | |
| Crowdwisdom360 | 149 | 129 | |
| Ankit Sharma- University Poll | 160 | 118 | 14 |
| ABP C Voters | 115 | 158 | 18 |
| Republic Bangla | 143 | 133 | 16 |
| Goa Chronicle Protect Core | 167 | 95 | 10 |
| Jan Ki Baat | 173 | 112 | 6 |
| India Today- Axis | 147 | 143 | 1 |
Bengal Election Exit Poll: Google Search Phasewise
In Phase 1: BJP: 72%, TMC: 28%
In Phase 2: BJP: 71%, TMC: 29%
Phase III: BJP: 62%, TMC: 20%, 2019,
Same Seats BJP: 75%, TMC: 12%
Phase V: On Day of Voting for 5th Phase 17th April
BJP: 57.5%, TMC: 20.6%
During 2019 Lok Sabha Election, Same seats
BJP: 64.9%, TMC: 12.8%
Bengal Election Exit Poll: 6th Phase Google Search
On Day of Voting for 6th Phase 22nd April
BJP: 57%, TMC: 19%
2019, Same seats
BJP: 72%, TMC: 18%
So far this election
BJP: 59%, TMC: 20%
2019
BJP: 64%, TMC: 17%
Bengal Election Exit Poll: 7th Phase Google Search
On Day of Voting for 7th Phase 26th April
BJP: 55%, TMC: 26%, Gap: 29%
Same Seats 2019
BJP: 71%, TMC: 14%, Gap: 57%
So far this election
BJP: 59%, TMC: 20%
2019
BJP: 64%, TMC: 17%
Bengal Election Exit Poll: Latest News for 8th Phase of Bengal Election
Money Control: Prime Minister Narendra Modi asked people to vote following the COVID protocol.
News18: The state of West Bengal recorded 16.04 percent voter turnout till 9am today for the eight and final phase of the assembly elections.
NDTV: Mithun Chakraborty Votes In Last Phase Today
Exchange4Media: I-PAC’s Facebook ad spend highest this year
Bengal Election Exit Poll: Estimation by Prashant Kishore, Mamata Banerjee’s Election Strategist
BJP: 40%
Left-INC: 10-15%
Others (last 2 elections average): 12%
Therefore, TMC: 33% to 38%
Note: TMC can only win if ‘Others’ reduces to 6%
Bengal Election Exit Poll of Last Election
| Polling Agency | AITC | Congress + Left | NDA | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABP News–Nielsen | 163 | 126 | 1 | 4 |
| India Today-Axis | 243 | 44 | 4 | 3 |
| Times Now–CVoter | 167 | 120 | 4 | 3 |
| News 24–Today’s Chanakya | 210 | 70 | 14 | – |
| NDTV | 184 | 103 | 5 | 2 |
| BRACE-News Time-খবর ৩৬৫ দিন | 214 | 72 | 3 | 5 |
Bengal Election 2021 Exit Poll: Key Analysis of Bengal Assembly Election 2021
1) Anti Incumbency against State Govt:
After 2019 results, TMC was on sticky wicket because of “Cut-Money” Issue & then BJP did a mistake by shifting the Narrative to NRC, so anti i/c took a backseat. But there’s a Resentment among people on Corona & Amphan Management though we don’t know the extent of this till this period ends but it’s also true that BJP leaders were seen no where in Lockdown Period
2) Organizational Strength:
BJP has grown Organizationally since 2019, but TMC has not weakened either and hence it is advantage TMC. But if BJP can get Suvendu Adhikari on Board then Election will be wide open
3) Anti Incumbency against Central Govt:
This is Restricted to Urban Areas only.
4) If Not Mamata Then Who?
Though Opposition lacks CM Face, TMC hasn’t been able to Capitalize into this issue wholly
5) BJP Wave in the State:
After 23rd May many people believed that TMC govt will not survive till 2021 & even if they survives, they will surely get defeated in 2021. Then the By Elections took place & this Wave Evaporated.
6) NRC CAA
Results of By Elections proved that, NRC benefited TMC but BJP has able to neutralise this a bit after enactment of CAA. Violence Created by Muslims helped BJP to continue their Propaganda.
Bengal Election 2021 Exit Poll: Polling and Result Date
West Bengal Assembly election will be conducted in 8 phases starting from 27th March. Result will be declared on May 2nd.
Here is the break out of election dates district wise:
(1) 27th March: 2020 District of Purulia, Some assemblies Bankura 1, Jhargram, Some assemblies of Medinipur : 30 Constituencies –
(2) 1st April: Bankura 2 , Medinipur 2, South 24 Pargana 1: 30 Constituencies
(3) 6 April: Howrah 1 , Hooghly 1 and South 24 Pargana 2: 31 Constituencies
(4) 10 April: Howrah 2 , Hooghly 2 , South 24 Pargana 3 , Alipurduar , Cooch Behar : 44 Constituencies
(5) 17 April: North 24 Pargana, Nadia1, Purba Bardaman1, Darjeeling , Kalimpong, Jalpaiguri: 45 Constituencies
(6) 22nd April: North 24 Pargana 2, Nadia 2,Purba Bardaman,Uttar Dinajpur : 43 Constituencies
7) 26 April: Malda 1, Murshidabad 1, Paschim Bardaman, Kolkata South, Dakshin Dinajpur: 36 Constituencies
(8) 29th April: Malda 2, Murshidabad 2, Bhirbhum, Kolkata North: 35 Constituencies