Latest Opinion Polls Australia 2022: Results and analysis
To read about Anthony Albanese Approval Rating, click here
To read our analysis of the Federal Elections 2022, read on.
| Latest Opinion Polls Australia 2022: How did the polls perform? Primary Votes: Liberal/National, Polls: 34.8%, Result: 35.8% (Error: 1.0%) -Very Good ALP, Polls: 34.4%, Result: 32.6% (Error: 1.8%) Greens, Polls: 12.2%, Result: 12.1% (Error: 0.1%) TPP Votes Liberals/National, Polls: 47.2%, Result: 48.2% (Error: 1.0%) – Excellent ALP, Polls: 51.6%, Result: 51.8% (Error: 0.2%) Google Search was very accurate in forecasting the results. It showed a drop in both the Coalition and ALP’s performance with the Greens gaining Crowdwisdom360’s Prediction: Small Labor Majority, Result: Small Labor Majority Read on for detailed analysis and insights |
Insights and Observations, 22nd May
- This was the most important chart in the election
It showed Morrison underperforming significantly versus 2019 but Albanese was not outperforming Bill Shorten by much. Contrary to mainstream analysis that voters wanted to focus on different issues, Mr. Albanese’s inability to offer clear and decisive leadership is one reason why Labor struggled on the primary vote. But voters were quite angry with Mr. Morrison to give him a second chance, so their TPP vote went to Labor. In simple words, Labor won because of a Coalition default.
2. ALP performance in various states
| Swing for or against the ALP | |
| NSW | -1.2% |
| Vic | -4.0% |
| QLD | +1.3% |
| WA | +7.5% |
| SA | -0.5% |
| TAS | -6.0% |
3. Seats that shifted parties
| Shifted from | Shifted to | ||
| Boothby | Coalition | ALP | |
| Chisholm | Coalition | ALP | |
| Hasluck | Coalition | ALP | |
| Higgins | Coalition | ALP | |
| Pearce | Coalition | ALP | |
| Reid | Coalition | ALP | |
| Robertson | Coalition | ALP | |
| Swan | Coalition | ALP | |
| Tangney | Coalition | ALP | |
| Griffith | ALP | Greens | |
| Ryan | Coalition | Greens | |
| Curtin | Coalition | Independent | |
| Fowler | ALP | Independent | |
| Goldstein | Coalition | Independent | |
| Kooyong | Coalition | Independent | |
| Mackellar | Coalition | Independent | |
| North Sydney | Coalition | Independent | |
| Wentworth | Coalition | Independent |
Polls Australian Federal Election 2022, 21st May
Primary Votes
| Date | Liberal/National | ALP | Green Party | ||
| Average | 21st May | 34.8% | 34.4% | 12.2% | |
| Roy Morgan | 19th May | 34% | 34% | 13% | |
| Newspoll | 19th May | 35% | 36% | 12% | |
| Ipsos | 18th May | 35% | 36% | 13% | |
| Essential Poll | 17th May | 36% | 35% | 9% | |
| Resolve Strategic | 17th May | 34% | 31% | 14% | |
| Error in 2019 Polls | -2.8% | +2.6% | -0.2% | ||
| 2019 Actual Results | 18th May | 41.4% | 33.3% | 10.4% | |
| 2019 Polls Average | 18th May | 38.6% | 35.9% | 10.2% |
TPP Vote Share
| Date of Poll | Liberal/National | ALP | ||
| Average | 21st May | 47.2% | 51.6% | |
| Roy Morgan | 19th May | 47% | 53% | |
| Newspoll | 19th May | 47% | 53% | |
| Ipsos | 18th May | 47% | 53% | |
| Essential Poll | 17th May | 46% | 48% | |
| Resolve Strategic | 17th May | 49% | 51% | |
| Error in 2019 Polls | -3.1% | -3.1% | ||
| 2019 Actual Results | 18th May | +51.5% | +48.5% | |
| 2019 Polls Average | 18th May | +48.5% | +51.5% |
Roy Morgan Polls: Differences between 2022 and 2019 Australian Election Polls
Australian Election 2022 Polls: Analysis of Last 7 Days Google Trends Data, 21st May
| Liberals/National Party | Australian Labor Party | Australian Greens | ||
| 21st May 2022 | 32% | 53% | 15% | |
| 18th May 2019 | 39% | 54% | 7% |
Social Media Sentiment Analysis
|  | Liberal/ Coalition | Labor/ ALP |  |
| 21st May | -27.8% | -22.0% |
Analysis of Google Trends Data, ALP in the States, 21st May
| ALP Lead in 2022 | ALP Lead in 2019 | Trend | ||
| Federal | +21% | +15% | Higher | |
| New South Wales | +22% | +12% | Higher | |
| Victoria | +20% | +20% | Steady | |
| Queensland | +25% | +21% | Higher | |
| Western Australia | +32% | -2% | Higher | |
| South Australia | +25% | +21% | Higher | |
| Tasmania | +42% | +22% | Higher |
Newspoll 2022: Differences between 2022 and 2019 Australian Election Polls
Latest Opinion Polls Australia 2022: Seats won by ALP in 2019 and Marginal Seats
| State | Seats won by ALP | Marginals held by the Coalition (<6%) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New South Wales | 24 | 3 | |
| Victoria | 21 | 6 | |
| Queensland | 6 | 4 | |
| Western Australia | 5 | 3 | |
| South Australia | 5 | 1 | |
| Tasmania | 2 | 2 | |
| Australian Capital Territory | 3 | 0 | |
| Northern Territory | 2 | 0 | |
| Total | 68 | 19 |
Australian Federal Election 2022 predictions, Morrison vs Albanese
Social Media Sentiment Analysis
| Scott Morrison | Anthony Albanese | ||
| 21st May | -29% | -14% |
Australian Election 2022 Polls, Betting Odds, 21st May
| Liberal Coalition | ALP | Predicted Winner | Trend | |||
| Sportsbet | Odds: 3.8 | Odds: 1.3 | ALP | Coalition Downgrade on Election Day | ||
| Ladbrokes | Odds: 4.0 | Odds: 1.33 | ALP | Coalition Downgrade on Election Day |
[If you wish to contribute with insights on the Australian Federal Election, write to us at subscriptions@crowdwisdom.live]
Australian Election 2022 Polls: Election Videos, 21st May
Labor leader Anthony Albanese makes final pitch to voters | 9 News Australia
Prime Minister Scott Morrison makes final pitch to voters | 9 News Australia
Latest Opinion Polls Australia 2022: Election News, 21st May
- Still undecided? As the countdown begins here’s your complete guide to how Australia will change if Anthony Albanese becomes the next PM – and what Scott Morrison vows to do if he wins a second term
- The key seats that will determine the outcome of the federal election
- Federal Election 2022 Live Updates: Polls open; Labor favourites but all results still possible; Huge pre-polling turnout
- Australian federal election 2022: Labor seeks court injunction to remove ‘fake’ election signs, as Morrison and Albanese campaign on polling day
- From holidaying in Hawaii while the country burned to forced handshakes, delayed vaccines, awkward photo ops, and not knowing the price of bread: ALL Scott Morrison’s gaffes and and bungles that could cost him reelection
- Sturt in play, along with Boothby, as South Australia heads to the polls in the federal election
Top 10 awkward moments of the 2022 Federal Election campaign | 9 News Australia
Latest Opinion Polls Australia 2022: Latest Tweets, 21st May
Australian Election 2022 Polls: Seats Distribution Each State and Territories Wise
| State | Seats | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New South Wales | 47 |  | |
| Victoria | 39 |  1 | |
| Queensland | 30 | | |
| Western Australia | 15 |  1 | |
| South Australia | 10 | | |
| Tasmania | 5 | | |
| Australian Capital Territory | 3 | | |
| Northern Territory | 2 | | |
| Total | 151 | |
Australian Election 2022 Polls: Last Election Result
The election for the 46th Parliament of Australia was held in May 2019. The election was called after the dissolution of the 45th Parliament of Australia. The election was held for all the 151 seats of the lower house (House of Representatives) and 40 of the 76 seats of the Upper House.
The result of the election did not throw a clear mandate for any of the individual parties. Labor emerged as the single largest party with 68 seats while Liberal won 44 seats. Liberal National secured 23 seats. After the election, a coalition government of Liberal and Liberal-National was formed. Scott Morrison was elected as the Prime Minister of Australia for the 2nd consecutive term.
Australian Election 2022 Polls: Election Procedure
The Australian Federal Election is held after every 3 years. The Prime Minister of Australia decides the date of the election which could be anytime within the 3 years term.
A total of 151 members are elected to the lower house of Parliament, the House of Representatives.
- Each member is elected to the lower house through preferential voting.
- Voters are required to write their preferences in the box beside every name in the ballot box.
- To be declared a winner, a candidate needs to win more than half of the preference votes.
- If a candidate is able to win an absolute majority of first preference votes, they win the seat.
- Suppose no candidate is able to gain an absolute majority of first preference votes. In that case, the candidate with the least number of votes is excluded and their votes are distributed among the second preference.
- Redistributing votes according to preferences continue until one candidate receives more than 50 per cent of the vote.
To know the elaborate process of date declaration, follow this link.
