Lok Sabha State wise seats Prediction: NDA seen surging to 275 seat
How is the Crowd Looking at the 2019 election?
This is our 4th update, previous update is here. Let us look at the Lok Sabha State wise seats Prediction
Intro : The Crowd has managed to perform better than most exit pollsters in 2018. They have performed poorly in Chhattisgarh, Telangana and really well in Rajasthan. So one cannot ignore the crowd. The Crowd has on an average reported an error of 18% for the winner (Axis the best is at 14%). Second, given the question format (Multiple Choice) we will have higher cut-offs for BJP and lower cut-offs for Opposition. What we mean is, given the over representation of BJP supporters, we will believe a hypothesis is strong only if it crosses 60% for BJP and 40% for Opposition. With this in mind, let us look at the current predictions
Uttar Pradesh Lok Sabha seats Prediction
BJP+ – 63% believe it will win 43 Seats or more(Predict Here), this is up from 55% for 37+ seats nearly a month ago. The reason for the jump is clear, significant loss in momentum for the opposition and gains for BJP due to the budget as well as entry of Priyanka Gandhi
SP – About 40% believe it will win 20 Seats or more (Predict here), this was 41% nearly a month ago
BSP – About 44% believe BSP will win 12 or more seats. (Predict here),
Taking the above data into account, it is increasingly looking SP-BSP will end up with about 32 seats, NDA about 43 Seats and the rest about 5 seats
Maharashtra Lok Sabha seats Prediction
BJP – Nearly 62% believe that BJP will win more than 22 Seats on its own (Predict here). This is the same level as 2 months ago after falling significantly beginning of last month. The alliance with Shiv Sena appears to have given more confidence
INC-NCP – About 51% now believe that the alliance will win 16 or more seats. (Predict here). This has increased marginally over last month
Overall, the crowd is still unclear about Maharashtra with 32 seats for the NDA alliance (derived) and 16 seats for INC-NCP
Bengal Lok Sabha seats Prediction
BJP – This 58% for more than 11 seats in Bengal (Predict here)
TMC – 44% expect Trinamool to win 27 seats or more, (Predict here) – this is up marginally
With BJP likely to win about 8-9 seats, Left and INC can expect no more than 6 seats together provided they ally. Else they are likely to end with 4 seats.
Bihar Lok Sabha seats Prediction
BJP+ – 64% believe it will win more than 26 Seats (Predict Here),This has continued to remain same.
43% have predicted that RJD+ alliance will win 16 or more seats in the election (Predict here). This has plunged from 53% a month
It is increasingly looking like NDA will win closer to 28 seats while RJD+ will win about 12 seats
Madhya Pradesh Lok Sabha seats Prediction
BJP – 57% believe that the BJP will win 22 or more seats. (Predict Here). This has fallen from 63% a month ago.
Congress – 53% now believe that the Congress will win 9 or more seats in 2019 (Predict Here). This is a drop of 7% from last month
Madhya Pradesh appears to have become uncertain but it looks more like 20 for BJP and about 9 for Congress
Karnataka Lok Sabha seats Prediction
BJP – 71% believe that the BJP will 15 seats or more (Predict here). This is up over previous month
Congress – 42% believe the Congress will win 8 or more seats in 2019 (Predict here). This is a drop compared to last month
Overall it looks like BJP will easily win 18, Congress 8 and perhaps JD(S) 2. Local activities suggest more upside for BJP in Karnataka
Gujarat Lok Sabha seats Prediction
BJP – 60% believe that the BJP will win 21 Seats or more in 2019 (Predict here). This is up from previous month
Congress – 42% believe that the Congress will win 4 or more Seats in 2019 (Predict here), this is up lower than over last month.
Overall it looks like BJP will easily win 22 and Congress 4
Rajasthan Lok Sabha seats Prediction
BJP – 63% believe that the BJP will win more than 16 Seats in 2019 (Predict here). This has increased over last month
Congress – 44% believe that the Congress party will win 9 or more seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. (Predict here). This is a drop from the previous monthd a
Overall, it appears BJP will end at 16 seats while Congress will end at 9 seats
Odisha Lok Sabha seats Prediction
BJP – 60% believe that the BJP will win more than 9 Seats in 2019 (Predict here) This is the same as one month ago.
BJD – 58% believe BJD will win 9 seats or more in 2019 (Predict here). This was higher last months
It looks like this will be split BJP -9, BJD -11, Congress -1
Assam and rest of North East Lok Sabha seats Prediction
BJP – 64% believe that BJP will win 7 or more seats in 2019 (Predict here)
Congress – 48% believe that Congress will win 6 or more seats in 2019 (Predict here)
BJP – 61% believe that the BJP will win 16 or more seats in 2019 (Predict here). This has fallen over last month
Delhi Lok Sabha seats Prediction
BJP – 60% believe that BJP will win 6 seats or more (Predict here) This is way higher than last month
Haryana Lok Sabha seats Prediction
BJP – 61% believe that BJP will win 7 or more seats. Predict here. This is a massive jump over last month
Congress – 50% believe that Congress will 3 or more seats. Predict here
Punjab Lok Sabha seats Prediction
Congress – 49% believe Congress will win 9 or more Seats in 2019. Predict here. This is up over last month
Chhattisgarh Lok Sabha seats Prediction
BJP – 64% believe that the party will 5 or more seats in 2019. Predict here. This is up from last month
Congress – 53% believe that the party will win 6 or more seats in 2019. Predict here
Jharkhand Lok Sabha seats Prediction
BJP – 67% believe that the party will 7 or more seats in 2019. Predict here. This is the same as last month
Tamil Nadu Lok Sabha seats Prediction
AIADMK+ 66% believe the alliance will win 14 seats or more in 2019. Predict here
In Sum
Total of above for NDA = 251 Seats/ 496 Seats (assuming in Andhra).
Pending –
Himachal, Uttarakhand, Goa. BJP won 12 Seats here. Telangana, Punjab, J&K, Kerala, Union Territories, BJP won 11 Lok Sabha Seats in 2014 here
Adding about 19 seats to the above Lok Sabha State wise seats Prediction plus 5 North East NDA allies will take NDA to about 275 seats. This is up 40 seats from February 10th
The attack on Pulwama and the subsequent counter attack on Balakot have given a huge push to the BJP across the country. Whether this is sustainable or not, time will tell given the deteriorating state of the economy. The narrative is clear
National Security/ Corruption/ Infrastucture (NDA)
vs
Economy/Farmers/Unemployment (UPA)
Whoever sells the narrative well from here on will win 2019