New Zealand Polls: Who Will Win the NZ Election 2023?

New Zealand Polls 2023: New Zealand is heading for a hung parliament with Labor as the single largest party.

The incumbent Prime Minister of New Zealand, Jacinda Arden resigned from her post which led to one of the biggest political events before the next New Zealand General election takes. She has been succeeded by Chris Hipkins who was the Minister of Education in her government.

The next General election for electing the 54th Parliament of New Zealand will be held on 14th October 2023. With less than 10 months to the poll, the incumbent Labour Party is facing 6 years of anti-incumbency. The failure of handling the COVID situation has hit the Labour government hard and their reputation among the New Zealanders who gave them a thumping majority in the last election has been hampered.

With just a few months to the election, the Labour Party will be fighting under the leadership of a new leader Chris Hipkins. The polls as of now have not been in favor of the Labour Party.

Who is Leading?

Google SearchLuxon
Social Media SentimentsLuxon
  • Latest New Zealand Polls (Average of Last 3): NAT: 33.6, LAB: 34.8, GRN: 9.7, ACT: 11.4
  • Google Trends: Christopher Luxon (NAT): 77% Chris Hipkins (LAB): 23%
  • Social Media Sentiment: Luxon (NAT): -56%, Hipkins (LAB): -42%

Latest New Zealand Polls 2023

Average of New Zealand Polls
(15th March 2023)
Talbot Mills
(1-9 March)
1 News–Kantar Public
(4-8th March)
Taxpayers’ Union–Curia
(2-7th March)

The polls for the upcoming New Zealand General election are indicating a hung assembly. Three poll numbers have been released since Chris Hipkins took over the charge as Prime Minister of New Zealand. The polls show Labour under him to emerge as the single largest party. However, polls have indicated a hung assembly.

Labor is directly gaining from the Green Party while the seats of ACT remain intact. National Party has also lost a few seats in the new polls.

Talbot Mills474410154
1 News–Kantar Public464314143
Taxpayers’ Union–Curia49488132

Likely Government

Labor will likely emerge as the single largest party. However, it will fail to win the seats required to form a government which is 61 seats.

Labor or the National Party will have to work an alliance to form a government.

Possible Government Formation: Considering the two of the latest polls, the Labor Party, along with the Green and Maori could form a coalition government.

In one poll released soon after Chris Hipkins took over as PM of New Zealand, the Labor Party would emerge as the SLP but fail to form a government even after the alliance. The National Party along with ACT will be able to form a government.

New Zealand Polls: Google Trends

Leaders (Last 30 Days)

  • Christopher Luxon (NAT): 68%
  • Chris Hipkins (LAB): 32%

New Zealand Polls: Social Media Sentiments

Leaders (Last 7 Days)

  • Christopher Luxon (Term: Luxon) (NAT): -56%
  • Chris Hipkins (Term: Hipkins) (LAB): -42%

New Zealand Polls: New Cabinet of Prime Minister Chris Hipkins

After taking over as Prime Minister of New Zealand from Jacinda Arden, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins announced his new cabinet. The cabinet reshuffle has been done keeping in mind the upcoming General election which is just 8 months from now. Here is what his new Cabinet looks like:

PM Hipkins takes over the charge of national security and intelligence. In the previous Government, Hipkins had a portfolio of Police. Stuart Nash took over the Police Portfolio.

Deputy Prime Minister Carmel Sepuloni retains his Social Development and Employment portfolio. He has been given an additional portfolio of Associate Minister of Foreign Affairs.

PM Hipkins said that his new cabinet will be focused on core bread-and-butter issues like the cost of living, education, health, housing, and keeping communities and businesses safe.

Grant Robertson has retained his finance ministry while Michael Wood has been promoted. He has retained the portfolio of Transport and Immigration. Along with it, he has been given additional charge as Minister for Auckland and also the associate Finance Minister.

Nanaia Mahuta retained her Finance Ministry. Kieran McAnulty has been given charge of the Local Government Portfolio. This ministry was held by Nanaia Mahuta in the previous government.

Andrew Little has been given charge of the Defense Ministry while Jan Tinetti will look after Education Portlio. Ayesha Verrall has been given charge of the health ministry.

New Zealand Polls 2023: What Happened in the Last Election?

The last NZ election was held on 17 October 2020. The incumbent Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern was defending her 3 years of work as an administrator of the country.

The result was the biggest of all the political victories since 1996 when the MMP system of voting was introduced in New Zealand. The Labour Party became the first party after 1996 to win an outright majority on its own. The ruling Labour Party under Jacinda Ardern won 65 seats. Their coalition partner, the Green Party won 10 seats while their other coalition partner New Zealand First, did not receive enough votes to pass the five percent threshold or win in an electorate.

The National Party won 33 seats a whopping 23 seats less than what it had won in the last election. ACT New Zealand went from one seat to ten.

Te Pāti Māori won a Māori electorate and gained an additional list seat.

New Zealand Polls: What Changed After the Last General Election?

After the last General election, two important political events happened. The first political event was National Party adding one seat to their tally while the Labour lost one seat.

In December 2022 the Hamilton West seat witnessed a by-election. The seat became vacant due to the resignation of former Labour Party MP Gaurav Sharma. In the by-election, twelve candidates were on the ballot. The National Candidate Tama Potaka won the election by polling 46.29% of the total votes. The Labour candidate Georgie Dansey got 30.14% of the total votes.

The most important political event in the run-up to the next General election was the resignation of the incumbent Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern after she announced the election dates for the upcoming New Zealand General election. Chris Hipkins took over as PM of New Zealand after the resignation of Jacinda Ardern.

Read: 2024 Presidential Election Predictions: Who will be the next President?

NZ Polls 2023: How are the MPs Elected in New Zealand’s Parliament?

New Zealand follows a unique voting method known as MMP or Mixed Member Proportional. Under this system, a voter has two votes, one party vote and the other the electorate vote. Here is how the voting system in New Zealand is carried out:

  • The Parliament of New Zealand has 120 MP seats.
  • A voter has two votes- a party vote and an electorate vote.
  • Party vote decides how many seats in Parliament each party gets.
  • The Electoral vote is to choose the representative for the electorate a voter lives in.
  • A party must get at least 5% of the party vote or win an electorate seat to have their representative in Parliament.
  • Every candidate who wins an electorate gets a seat in Parliament. They are called electorate MPs.
  • 72 of the 120 seats are filled by the MPs elected from the electorate votes.
  • The remaining seats in the Parliament are filled from party lists.
  • Every party has a party list, which is a list of candidates ranked in the order the party wants those candidates to be elected to Parliament. They are known as list MPs.
  • The political party or party bloc with the majority of the seats in the House forms the Government.

The MMP system was introduced in New Zealand in the year 1996. Since then no party has been able to win the majority on its own. But in 2020, the Labour Party scripted history by winning 65 seats, an outright majority on its own.

New Zealand Polls 2023: Demographic Composition

New Zealand is home to around 5 Million people. The population is composed of six major ethnic groups in New Zealand: European, Māori, Pacific peoples, Asian, MELAA (Middle Eastern / Latin American / African), and ‘Other ethnicity’.

The proportion of each ethnic group in the population is as follows:

  • European 64.1%
  • Maori 16.5%
  • Chinese 4.9%
  • Indian 4.7%
  • Samoan 3.9%
  • Tongan 1.8%
  • Cook Islands: Maori 1.7%, English 1.5%, Filipino 1.5%, New Zealander 1%, other 13.7%.

As per the 2018 survey, the ones identifying as No Religion make up the major portion of the population of New Zealand.

  • No religion 48.6%
  • Christian 37.3%
  • Hindu 2.7%
  • Maori 1.3%
  • Muslim, 1.3%
  • Buddhist 1.1%
  • Other religions 1.6%

Age Structure of the Population of New Zealand

  • 0-14 years: 19.63% (male 496,802/female 469,853)
  • 15-24 years: 12.92% (male 328,327/female 308,132)
  • 25-54 years: 39.98% (male 996,857/female 972,566)
  • 55-64 years: 11.93% (male 285,989/female 301,692)
  • 65 years and over: 15.54% (male 358,228/female 407,031)
NZ Polls 2023

Muskan Arora

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