Pakistan Election Prediction: Imran Khan to Return With Bigger Mandate?
|Pakistan Election Prediction: As per our observation based on Google Trends and Net Sentiment, Imran Khan and his party PTI will be the biggest gainer if elections are held.|
The south-Asian country Pakistan is undergoing political turmoil in the last few days. On April 9th, 2022, Imran Khan, the Prime Minister of Pakistan lost the vote of confidence in Pakistan’s Parliament after his coalition partners deserted him as they felt that Imran Khan’s government was responsible for the country’s crumbling economy and also blamed Khan and his government failing to deliver on their campaign promises.
However, the story from the other side, that is Imran Khan’s party is completely different. Khan and the party blamed the foreign power for coming together to topple his government. In the end, Imran Khan no longer is the Prime Minister of Pakistan and the Parliament is set to vote on April 11th for the new government.
In the recently held no-confidence vote, a total of opposition parties were able to secure 174 votes in the 342-member house. That margin of victory for the opposition was very slim, that is they got only 3 votes more than the halfway mark. Therefore, a question arises, “Will the newly formed Government, expected to form on April 11th, complete the current tenure of the Pakistan Parliament which ends on August 13th, 2023?”
Pakistan Election Prediction: Background
Imran Khan and his party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf became the single largest party in the last General election which was held in July 2018. Imran’s PTI won 116 seats and fell short of the majority on its won by 56 seats. At the provincial level, the PTI remained the largest party in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP).
It must be noted that, of 342 seats of the National Assembly, 272 are elected by first-past-the-post voting in single-member constituencies while 60 seats are reserved for women and 10 for minority groups. The reserved seats are elected by proportional representation based on the national vote share in the single-member constituencies with a 5% electoral threshold.
Imran Khan’s PTI after the election of the women’s and minority members had a total of 149 seats in the National Assembly falling 23 short of the majority.
Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) won 64 seats while Bilawal Ali Bhutto’s Pakistan Peoples Party won 43 seats.
After the election result was declared, PTI with the support of smaller parties like PMLQ, BNP-M, BAP and MQM got the majority in the National Assembly. Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui’s MQM was the biggest ally of PTI and after his party pulled out from supporting PTI, Imran Khan’s government was pushed into a minority.
Pakistan Election Prediction: Will Pakistan Go for New Poll before August 2023?
Despite a new government set to form on April 11th, the upcoming new government is unlikely to see stability. The reason for it being the current ally in the coalition. The Pakistan Muslim League and Pakistan People’s Party have been the two biggest political parties of Pakistan before the entry of Imran Khan’s PTI.
The now allies have been foes for a couple of decades but being out of power in the same time brought the two parties together against their common enemy, Imran Khan and his party PTI.
Shahbaz Sharif, the brother of Nawaz Sharif is set to be the Prime Minister of Pakistan with the support of new coalition partners. The future of the coalition will completely depend upon the ambitions of the leaders of the respective parties.
Though the new coalition partners have promised to work together for the better of Pakistan and its people, the future of the new government may hang in fear since the very first day of its formation.
Pakistan Election Prediction: Who will win If Pakistan Goes for Election?
Before being reinstated as Prime Minister by the Supreme Court of Pakistan, Imran Khan had dissolved the current assembly on the day of a no-confidence vote. He did put in the effort to push the country to a snap election. However, the election commission of Pakistan expressed that it was not in a position to hold an election within 90 days.
Now, if any situation arises and the current coalition fails to stay together, Pakistan may see a snap election. If a snap election is held, who would win the election or which party holds the advantage if country goes for election:
The observation about the outcome of the next election in Pakistan is purely based on our understanding of Google search trends and the net sentiment of each leader. With the current situation in play, Pakistan is set to experience a Presidential election type of voting as the people of the country may not give much heed to the names of the leaders on the ballot but may solely vote for the Prime Ministerial candidates choice.
What Does our Data Say?
Analyzing our data, it is clear, that if elections are held today, Imran Khan and his party PTI will be the biggest gainer. Comparing the trends of all the parties with respect to the last election and the current election, Imran Khan’s PTI may register one of the biggest wins in the history of Pakistan. However, our observations are purely based on data from Google Trends and Net sentiments. No opinion polls have been conducted by us or any other organization as of now for the upcoming Pakistan election.
Talking about the Net Sentiment, there has been a huge improvement in the sentiment of Bilawal Bhutto while for Khan the sentiments have remained constant.
Pakistan Election Prediction: Google Trends
|Imran Khan||Shahbaz Sharif||Bilawal Bhutto|
Pakistan Election Prediction: Net Sentiment
|Imran Khan||Shahbaz Sharif||Bilawal Bhutto|
|Net Sentiment (Last 7 Days)||-1.2%||-0.5%||+14.2%|
Pakistan Election Prediction: Verdict
Since no polls have been conducted, it would be unfair to predict the outcome of the election, if it happens in near future. However, if Pakistan goes for a new election, considering our data, we may see Imran Khan passing the people’s test with flying colors.