Scott Morrison Polls: 3 Reasons why Scott Morrison cannot comeback like in 2019

April 19, 2022

Scott Morrison Polls: Many are arguing that Scott Morrison will turn around the 2022 election just like he did in the 2019 election. Here are the 3 reasons why will not be able to repeat the ‘Miracle’

Scott Morrison Polls: Polls were much closer in 2019 than they are in 2022

On the 2PP vote, in March 2019, ALP was ahead 53% to 47%, and the Coalition needed a 4% swing to win the election. In March 2022, ALP is ahead 54% to 44%, the Coalition needs a much larger swing (6% to 7%) to win the election. It is not impossible but certainly much tougher than it was in 2019. There are about 20 seats where swings of 3-4% will win the election for Labor (they need to swing just 7).

Even in the Primary vote, in March 2019, the Coalition were ranging between 35% and 39% in the polls. ALP ranged between 36% and 39%, well within the range of the Coalition. In March 2022, the Coalition ranged between 31% and 37%, Labor ranged between 35% and 41%. Just 2 out of the 7 polls showed the Coalition ahead or on par with Labor.

The gap is not insurmountable but much more substantial than in 2019. Incumbents tend to find it tougher to overcome these gaps.

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Latest Opinion Polls Australia 2022

On Google Search, the gap between ALP and the Coalition was much lower in 2019

In March 2019, the gap between ALP and the Coalition was 25% in favor of ALP. It came down to 19% on election day in 2019. In March 2022, the gap is 49% points in favor of ALP. A 10% swing in favor of the Coalition will bring the gap down to 26% which is much higher than it was on 2019 election day.

This gap is not unsurmountable but the effort needed will be much higher than in 2019.

Scott Morrison’s Approval ratings are a mess

In early April 2019, Scott Morrison’s Net Approval rating was +9%. In March 2022, Scott Morrison’s Net Approval rating is -9%. It is unlikely this will change by much, probably go to +0 by election day.

In theory, Scott Morrison can still pull it off. However, Scott Morrison Polls, his party’s pull amongst voters, and opinion polls all show the Coalition is way behind compared to 2019. In the next 6-7 weeks, Scott Morrison will need a Bigger Miracle than 2019 to return as Prime Minister.

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