Texas Governor Polls: Greg Abbott beats Beto O’Rourke

Election Day Updates

Counting

• Greg Abbott: 53.0%
• Beto O’Rourke: 45.7%

Texas Governor Election 2022 Predictions: New Poll gives Abbott a 6% lead over Rourke and also a significant lead in the Poll averages

Texas Governor Polls: Greg Abbott: 50.3%, Beto O’Rourke: 43%
2018 election, Abbott (R): 56.7%, Valdez(D) 37.0% (October 2018)

Google Search Volume Share: Abbott: 40%, O’Rourke: 60%
2018 Election: Abbott: 73%, Valdez: 27%
Social Media Sentiments: Abbott: -31.2% , Beto: -6.7%

Crowdwisdom360 Prediction: Abbott to win by 9-11%

When is the Texas Governor’s Race?

The incumbent Governor of Texas, Gregg Abbott is up against the Democratic Party’s candidate Beto O’Rourke. Democrats haven’t won a Gubernatorial election in Texas since 1990.

The 2022 Texas gubernatorial election will take place on November 8, 2022

Texas Governor Election 2022 Predictions: Who is Gaining?

Over the last 4 weeks, Greg Abbott has gained 2 points while Beto O’Rourke has lost nearly 1point. Among the higher-rated pollsters, Abbott leads by nearly 10 points.

Greg Abbott vs Beto O’Rourke Polls: Observations and Insights

• Texas Governor Greg Abbott is comfortably placed to win the 2022 Texas Gubernatorial election but this could be the closest Gubernatorial race since 1994
• Has Beto any progress over the last 1 month? Let us compare the UT Polls of September with the one released last week
  • Overall Vote Share Gains, Abbott: +9%, O’Rourke: +3%
  • Independent,Abbott: +20%, O’Rourke: +7%
  • Women, Abbott: +11%, O’Rourke: +2%
  • Hispanic,Abbott: +15%, O’Rourke: -4%
  • 30 to 44-year-olds, Abbott: +3%, O’Rourke: +9%
  • Single, Abbott: +2%, O’Rourke: +14%
• Why is Greg Abbott struggling?
  • Over the last 3 years, Texas has underperformed the national average by a big margin. Personal Income growth was lower than US Average. The Homicide Mortality rate grew faster than the National Average while Health Insurance inflation was higher in Texas compared to the national average. The unemployment rate too is higher than the National average
  • As a consequence, Greg Abbot enjoys sub-par approval ratings of 47% with 44% disapproving of his job as Governor. Further, 50% of voters think Texas is headed in the wrong direction. Greg Abbott is in the Bottom 15 worst-performing Governors in the US as per the latest poll by Morning Consult.
• What are Greg Abbott’s Strengths
  • Abbott is performing well on immigration. Abbott is tightening his positioning on immigration, a traditionally weak area for the Democrats

• Why isn’t Beto O’Rourke winning?
  • Beto O’Rourke has failed to make a convincing argument to the large base of Independent but moderate voters in Texas. In the latest UT Austin poll, only 29% of Independent voters were open to voting for O’Rourke.
  • Many of these moderates are located in Suburban Texas where Beto O’Rourke trails 43-54
  • The main reason is the lack of emphasis on two issues that matter most to Texans – The economy and immigration. The problem is Beto has not been able to convince many Texans that he has the solutions to these issues. On the economy, O’Rourke trails by 16 points, and on Immigration, he trails by 19.

New Greg Abbott AD

Texas Governor Election 2022 Predictions: Beto vs Abbott Poll 2022

Texas Governor Polls: Betting Odds

Texas Governor Election 2022 Polls: Can Beto O’ Rourke win?

Nearly 60% of the voters in Texas describe themselves as Democrats or Independents. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won 43% of the vote indicating a conversion of 69%. In 2020, Joe Biden won 46.5% of the vote, a conversion of 79%.

Beto O’Rourke will need to convince 85% of these voters to vote for him during the November Texas Gubernatorial Election. This translates to 400,000 voters shifting loyalties from Republican to Democrat in the November election.

• That is about 1574 votes per County or
• 10% more votes in the Top 10-15 Counties (Many of which voted Democrat) or
• Increasing Democrat Turnout by 12%

While the reality may seem quite different, there is a theoretical possibility that Beto O’ Rourke could beat Greg Abbott.

Texas Governor Election 2022 Polls: Greg Abbott Approval Rating

The Approval Rating of Greg Abbott has increased marginally for the month of November as compared to his October 2022 rating.

However, Abbott’s approval ratings are not great but the % disapproving of him hasn’t crossed the 50% barrier. His approval ratings have been on a decline since 2021.

Texas Governor Election 2022 Polls: Google Search Share

Last 7 Days

• Greg Abbott: 40% (Steady)
• Beto O’Rourke: 60%

Texas Governor Polls 2022: Social Media Sentiments

Last 7 Days

• Abbott: -31.2%
• Beto: -6.7% (Improved)

Beto O’Rourke Polls: O’Rourke is rising on Google and Social Media

Google tends to give a pretty accurate picture of the momentum in an election and what we know for sure is that Governor Abbott led Beto by 18 points in the share of Google Searches a week before Uvalde. Beto is leading Abbott by 28 points now in terms of search volume. Social media sentiments towards Governor Abbott have deteriorated during this period.

Texas Governor Polls 2022: Candidate Endorsements

Texas Governor Polls 2022: What is expected from the Texas Governor Election?

a. How Joe Biden’s Approval Rating Will Impact Chances of Democrats in Texas?

The Democrats have failed to win the Governor election since 1994. The upcoming Governor election in Texas would be an uphill task for Democrats. The declining Biden approval rating is turning out to be a matter of concern for the Democrats. Since being in office Biden has been under extreme pressure due to the issues like Covid, inflation, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, and now the Ukraine crisis.

President Biden and the Democrats have failed on most of the fronts, impacting the Democrats around the country. The result of the latest Virginia election, as well as the North Carolina, shows the increasing influence of Republicans and Democrats losing grip.

b. Republicans have an Upper hand

The latest Texas Governor polls show that Republicans are ahead of the Democrats. In the 2020 General Election, most polls overestimated Biden over Trump in Texas. Trump won the state by 5.8%. Currently, as per the latest Emerson poll, the incumbent governor Greg Abbott is ahead of the Democrat Beto O’Rourke by 5 points.

All things considered, Abbott should win. However, with Beto O’Rourke closing in, it would be unwise to come to the conclusion of the election as of today.