The Crowd’s Verdict: Predictions for Election 2019
Exit Polls 2019 India- Predictions
INTRO:
The Crowd has managed to perform better than most exit pollsters in 2018. They have performed poorly in Chhattisgarh, Telangana and really well in Rajasthan. So one cannot ignore the crowd. The Crowd has on an average reported an error of 18% for the winner (Axis the best is at 14%). Second, given the question format (Multiple Choice) we will have higher cut-offs for BJP and lower cut-offs for Opposition. What we mean is, given the over representation of BJP supporters, we will believe a hypothesis is strong only if it crosses 60% for BJP and 40% for Opposition. (In light of the Exit Polls, we have changed the state level cut-off to a more fair 50% for both sides in case of UP, Bihar and Bengal)
Uttar Pradesh Lok Sabha seats Prediction
BJP+ – 54% believe it will win 49 Seats or more(Predict Here), this is a small drop from before the voting period
SP – About 55% believe it will win 14 Seats or more (Predict here), this has increased over the voting period
BSP – About 47% believe BSP will win 12 or more seats. (Predict here), this is a significant jump during the voting period
Taking the above data into account, it is increasingly looking like SP-BSP will end up with about 26 seats, NDA about 49 Seats and the rest about 5 seats
Maharashtra Lok Sabha seats Prediction
BJP – Nearly 73% believe that BJP will win more than 18 Seats on its own (Predict here). This is likely to be closer 20
About 62% predict Shiv Sena will win 13 or more seats in Maharashtra (Predict here)
INC-NCP – About 50% now believe that the alliance will win 16 or more seats. (Predict here).
A combination of the two suggests 32 NDA and 16 for UPA
Bengal Lok Sabha seats Prediction
BJP – 58% believe BJP will win 11 or more seats in Bengal (Predict here).It is likely to be closer to 13
TMC – 58% expect Trinamool to win 23 seats or more, (Predict here) – this has fallen during the election period
BJP is likely to win 13 seats, TMC about 25 seats and Left and INC are unlikely to win more than 3 seats in Bengal.
Bihar Lok Sabha seats Prediction
BJP+ – 61% believe it will win more than 25 Seats (Predict Here),
55% have predicted that RJD+ alliance will win 16 or more seats in the election (Predict here). This is a jump over the election period
It is increasingly looking like NDA will win closer to 25 seats while RJD+ will win about 15 seats
Madhya Pradesh Lok Sabha seats Prediction
BJP – 70% believe that the BJP will win 19 or more seats. (Predict Here). This is a small drop from before the voting period
Congress – 51% now believe that the Congress will win 9 or more seats in 2019 (Predict Here). This is a small drop during the election period
Madhya Pradesh appears to have become uncertain but it looks more like 20 for BJP and about 9 for Congress
Karnataka Lok Sabha seats Prediction
BJP – 66% believe that the BJP will 18 seats or more (Predict here). This is up over previous month
Congress – 42% believe the Congress will win 11 or more seats in 2019 (Predict here). This is a drop compared to last month
Overall it looks like BJP will easily win 18, Congress 8 and perhaps JD(S) 2.
Gujarat Lok Sabha seats Prediction
BJP – 64% believe that the BJP will win 21 Seats or more in 2019 (Predict here). This is up from previous month
Congress – 44% believe that the Congress will win 4 or more Seats in 2019 (Predict here), this is up lower than over last month.
Overall it looks like BJP will easily win 21 and Congress 5
Rajasthan Lok Sabha seats Prediction
BJP – 64% believe that the BJP will win more than 16 Seats in 2019 (Predict here). This has increased over last month
Congress – 48% believe that the Congress party will win 9 or more seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. (Predict here). This is a massive bounce during the election period
Overall, it appears BJP will end at 16 seats while Congress will end at 9 seats
Odisha Lok Sabha seats Prediction
BJP – 65% believe that the BJP will win more than 9 Seats in 2019 (Predict here) This is a massive jump over previous month
BJD – 54% believe BJD will win 12 seats or more in 2019 (Predict here). This is a big jump over last one month
It looks like this will be split BJP -9, BJD -12
Assam and rest of North East Lok Sabha seats Prediction
BJP – 65% believe that BJP will win 7 or more seats in 2019 (Predict here). This is up from previous month
Congress – 53% believe that Congress will win 6 or more seats in 2019 (Predict here)
Assam is likely to be split 7 in favour of BJP, 6 Congress and 1 for AIUDF
BJP – 67% believe that the BJP will win 13 or more seats in 2019 (Predict here). This has fallen over last month
Delhi Lok Sabha seats Prediction
BJP – 61% believe that BJP will win 6 seats or more (Predict here). This is up from last month
Haryana Lok Sabha seats Prediction
BJP – 63% believe that BJP will win 7 or more seats. Predict here. This is a jump over last month
Congress – 50% believe that Congress will 3 or more seats. Predict here
Punjab Lok Sabha seats Prediction
Congress – 49% believe Congress will win 9 or more Seats in 2019. Predict here.
NDA is likely to end up with 3 seats
Chhattisgarh Lok Sabha seats Prediction
BJP – 64% believe that the party will 5 or more seats in 2019. Predict here. This is up from last month
Congress – 49% believe that the party will win 6 or more seats in 2019. Predict here. This has reduced quite a big during the last one month
Jharkhand Lok Sabha seats Prediction
BJP – 66% believe that the party will 7 or more seats in 2019. Predict here. This is the same as last month
Looks like Jharkhand will split 50-50 between NDA and UPA
Tamil Nadu Lok Sabha seats Prediction
AIADMK+ 66% believe the alliance will win 10 seats or more in 2019. Predict here. This has fallen significantly over the last one month
DMK – 48% believe that the DMK alliance will 29 or more seats in 2019.
In Sum
Total of above for NDA = 254 Seats/ 496 Seats (assuming zero in Andhra).
Pending
Himachal, Uttarakhand, Goa. BJP won 11 Seats here. Telangana J&K, Kerala, Union Territories, NDA won 8 Lok Sabha Seats in 2014 here
Adding about 19 seats to the above Lok Sabha State wise seats will take NDA to about 273 seats.
CrowdWisdom360 uses a second crowd based method to collect crowd’s predictions of the 2019 election. In the 2018 assembly election, this had an error of about 18%.
The current projection is
NDA – 276
UPA – 154
Others – 113
Looking at both the numbers, it is clear, NDA is returning to power. Whether the crowd is over or under-estimating or not will be known only on 23rd May. Best wishes to the crowd
Continue Trading until the 23rd afternoon at www.crowdwisdom360.com
Pic Courtesy: Hindi News – India TV
Topic: Exit Polls 2019 India- Predictions