UK Election Polls 2024: Sunak Fails to make Headway

June 2, 2023

UK Election Polls 2024 Average:

Labour 43.3%
Conservatives 28%
Lib Dems 10.7%
SNP 3.3%
Green 5.7%
Reform 5.7%

UK Election Polls 2024 Seat Prediction:

Labour 485
Conservatives 79
Lib Dems 13
SNP 50
Green 1

In 2010 the Conservative Party under David Cameron succeeded after being out of power for almost 15 years and was able to form their government. James Cameroon successfully completed his first term and won his re-election with a bigger margin.

However, he could not complete his second term and resigned after he failed to get a consensus on breaking from European Union. Since then UK’s politics has been marred by a streak of instability. Theresa May succeeded David Cameroon and was able to win her re-election in 2017 but she failed to complete her term and Boris Johnson succeeded her as Prime Minister.

Under the leadership of Boris Johnson, the Toris contested the 2019 General election. The leader of the main opposition party, Labour was Jeremy Corbyn. The Conservatives returned to power with a much bigger majority and Boris Johnson was once again elected as Prime Minister. Despite having such a majority, Boris Johnson had to quit as Prime Minister, and now Liz Truss is the PM of the United Kingdom.

In the span of six years, that is since David Cameron resigned (13 July 2016), the United Kingdom has had three different Prime Ministers, but all from the Conservative Party. Liz Truss became the Prime Minister after Boris Johnson resigned after 44 days in office.

UK Election Prediction: The next United Kingdom General election is scheduled for January 2025, however, if the instability continues, there are chances of an early election.

In one latest poll, 17% of the crowd is of the opinion that the next UK election could take place in 2023 while the majority believe it will be in 2024 or later.

UK Election Polls 2024: Major Insights

The Conservative Party is in deep trouble mainly on account of this state of the British economy (after Brexit) as well as in-fighting amongst the Tories during and after the Covid pandemic
Since 2010 when David Cameron took over, the UK per capita GDP has risen by 17%, the German economy rose 23% while the US Economy has grown by 44%. However, since 2016 after Brexit, the British economy has risen just 12%, Germany by 22% and the American economy rose by 21%. The UK was relatively competitive vis-a-vis Germany between 2010 and 2015, before Brexit
The past year had been particularly tough as a combination of the pandemic and the Russian Invasion ended Boris Johnson’s tenure as PM. Liz Truss took over for a few weeks before Rishi Sunak become Prime Minister
Sunak is polling well as PM but the voters appear to be quite convinced that the Tories must be replaced.
Can the Tories win again?
- With 2 years left for the election, it will be quite difficult if not impossible for the Tories to win the election
- The Tories are some 10-12% below preference for Sunak, that is a gap that Sunak will be focussed on for the moment.
- These are voters who prefer Sunak over Starmer but are planning to vote for some other party in their constituency
- Part of the reason why they prefer Sunak is they don’t like Starmer and his politics.
- In order to enable this shift, the Tories could attack Starmer and portray him as unreliable. This could move the needle towards the Tories and make the election a very close one.

Latest UK Election Polls 2024: Latest Update

Labour win big in Local Election

The recent local government elections in the UK have seen Labour overtake the Conservatives as the largest party, achieving a significant milestone after picking up more than 500 seats. Meanwhile, the Conservatives endured a difficult evening, losing more than 1,000 seats, meeting the worst possible pre-election expectations.

However, despite this success, doubts remain as to whether Labour has done enough to be on the cusp of a return to government. Analysis by Sky News election expert Professor Michael Thrasher suggests that, if this election’s vote trends were repeated in a general election, Labour would fall 28 seats short of a House of Commons majority.

While Labour has made gains in areas it will need to win back at a general election, it remains to be seen if the party can translate this success into a return to power. The party performed better than the Conservatives across three quarters of local wards that haven’t changed since the last time these seats were up in 2019, but the devil is in the detail as to where the parties did better and worse. Overall, these results indicate that the UK’s political landscape remains unpredictable and volatile, and it will be interesting to see how this plays out in the lead-up to the next general election.

Latest UK Election Polls 2024: Vote Shares

Polling Average, June 2nd

Labour 43.3%
Conservatives 28%
Lib Dems 10.7%
SNP 3.3%
Green 5.7%
Reform 5.7%

Redfield & Wilton Strategies, May 28th

Labour 43%
Conservatives 28%
Lib Dems 12%
SNP 3%
Green 7%
Reform 5%

Savanta, May 28th

Labour 44%
Conservatives 31%
Lib Dems 9%
SNP 3%
Green 3%
Reform 5%

YouGov, May 26th

Labour 43%
Conservatives 25%
Lib Dems 11%
SNP 4%
Green 7%
Reform 7%

UK Election Polls 2024: Seat Predictions

Average, June 2nd

Labour 485
Conservatives 79
Lib Dems 13
SNP 50
Green 1

Find Out Now, March 3rd

Labour 499
Conservatives 69
Lib Dems N/A
SNP N/A
Green N/A

Survation, February 17th

Labour 475
Conservatives 100
Lib Dems 5
SNP 45
Green 2

Savanta, December 5th

Labour 482
Conservatives 69
Lib Dems 21
SNP 55
Green 1

Conclusion

The next general election in the United Kingdom is scheduled for 2025, but due to ongoing instability in the government, there is a possibility of an early election. If an election were to take place, it is predicted that the Conservative Party could lose power, with the Labour Party returning to power with a significant majority.