Latest Victorian Opinion Polls 2022: ALP Likely to win 56 Seats

November 29, 2022

ALP: 51 [54.0%], Current Prediction: 56
Coalition: 25[46.0%], Current Prediction: 27
Greens: 4, Current Prediction: 4
Independents:0

7 Seats to Call.

Latest Breaking

Matthew Guy calls Dan Andrews to congratulate him. In his concession speech.
Greens claim the battleground seat of Richmond

Marginal Seats

ALP Seats (13)

Richmond – Green Gain
Nepean – Liberals Gain
Hawthorn – Labor – Liberals ahead

Bass – Labor – Labor ahead

Northcote – Labor Likely
Pakenham – Labor – Labor Likely
Preston – Labor Likely

Bayswater – Labor retains
Albert Park – Labor retains
Bellarine – Labor retains
Ashwood – Labor retains
Pascoe Vale – Labor retains
Melton – Labor retains

Liberals (6)

Glen Waverly – ALP Gain

Hastings – ALP ahead
Mornington – Liberals ahead

Benambra – Liberals retain
Brighton – Liberals retain
Kew – Liberals retain

Others(3)

Mildura – Independent to National
Morwell – Independent – National
Shepparton – Independent – Liberals

Revised Seat Forecast

Net Labor Losses: 2, Predicted Seats: 56
Net Liberal Gains: 2, Predicted Seats: 27

Victorian Opinion Polls (Average of Last 3 Polls): The ruling ALP is ahead by 2.8% in primary polls and 8.2% in TPP polls. It is expected to return to power once again.

Latest VIC Election Polls ALP: 37.3%, Liberal Coalition: 34.5%, Greens: 11.5%

Latest Vic Election TPP Polls average ALP: 54.1%, Liberals: 45.9%

CrowdwisdomLive Vic 2022 Seat Prediction: ALP: 47, Liberals: 25

Google Trends: LIB/NAT: 45%, ALP: 38% Greens: 17%
Social Media Sentiment: Dan Andrews:-59.5% Matthew Guy: -64.4% Samantha Ratnam:Not enough data

Who Will Win the 2022 Victoria Election? CrowdwisdomLIVE Prediction: Daniel Andrews to Win Once Again.

Election Day Google Update* – 4 Hours of Voting

ALP: 39%
Coalition (Liberals/ Nationals): 42%
Greens: 18%

The Coalition has fallen a little compared to yesterday. The Greens seem to be gaining in share.

The Victorian State Election is scheduled for 26th November 2022. The incumbent Labor government is seeking a successive 3rd term.

2022 has been a good year for the Labor Party in Australia. After 15 years, the Labor Party came to power in Australia. Australia saw a change in power after 15 years. Two months before the Federal election, the ALP led by Peter Malinauskas won the 2022 South Australian state election beating Premier Steven Marshall and his Liberal Party.

If the Labor Party is able to retain Victoria, this would mean a complete rout of the Liberal party and its coalition in Australia.

Victorian State Election Predictions

Who is ahead in Polls? Labor Party
Who is ahead in Google Trends? The Liberal Coalition
Who has a better Social Media Sentiment? Dan Andrews

Who is Predicted To Win?

ALP is likely to win the election by a small margin. The Coalition has bounced hard over the last few weeks but may fall short given the limited time remaining. It is more likely that Labor may be forced to form a minority government.

Victorian Opinion Polls 2022: Observations and Insights

The Liberal Coalition has made some gains but not enough to win the election.
Green Party may poll more than what it had in the last election.
The top two parties have lost their preference among the voters. In 2018, around 78% of the voters voted for the two parties but in 2022 the top two parties may poll 71% of the total votes.
The Labor Party will emerge as the single largest party but is unlikely to get a majority.
The Labor Party may poll around 5-6% less than their 2018 vote share.
The leader of the Liberal Coalition, Matthew Guy continues to struggle among women, and with more female voters in the voting population, this makes the task that much more difficult.
The latest poll suggests that the Coalition needs a very small swing to force Labor to form a Minority Government.

Race tightens between Andrews and Guy

Victorian Opinion Polls 2022: What do the Opinion Polls Predict?

Primary Votes

Average of all Polls	26th November
*ALP*	37.3%^{[-5.6% vs 2018]}
*Liberal/National*	34.5%^[+0.3%]
*Greens*	11.5%^[+0.7%]
Newspoll	24th November
*ALP*	*38%*
*Liberal/National*	*35%*
*Greens*	*12%*
Roy Morgan	23rd November
*ALP*	*38%*
*Liberal/National*	*32.5%*
*Greens*	*12.5%*
Resolve Strategic	21st November
*ALP*	*36%*
*Liberal/National*	*36%*
*Greens*	*10%*

Victorian Election 2022 Polls: Two-Party Preferred Votes

Since none of the parties or the coalition will be able to cross the 50% mark in the Primary votes, the two-party preferred votes are set to decide the outcome of the election. As per the latest poll, Labor Party is well-placed to return to power once again in Victoria.

Average of Polls (26th November)

ALP: 54.1%^{[-3.3% vs 2018]}
LIB/NAT: 45.9%^[+3.3%]

Newspoll (24th Nov)

ALP: 54.5%
LIB/NAT: 45.5%

Roy Morgan (23rd November)

ALP: 55%
LIB/NAT: 45%

Resolve Strategic (21st November)

ALP: 52.7%
LIB/NAT: 47.3%

Electorate Seat Level Analysis

Labor Party

In 2018, the Labor Party won 55 seats. Of 55 seats, 11 seats have been won by less than a 5% vote margin. Labor won 5 seats with a margin of more than 5% but less than 10%.

In 12 seats, the winning margin for the Labor Party was more than 20%. These seats are highly safe seats for the Labor Party. In the rest of the seats, the winning margin was between 10-20%.

Liberal Coalition

The Liberal Coalition won 27 seats in the last election. In 7 seats the winning margin for the Coalition was 10% or more. The Coalition won 1 seat with a vote margin of over 5% but less than 10%. In the rest of the seats, the winning margin was less than 5%.

Green Party

Of the 3 seats won by the Green Party, 2 seats were won by less than 5% vote margin, and 1 seat was won by over 5% voter margin but less than 10%.

Due to redistribution, Labor starts with a 58-25 advantage.

Other Competitive Seats

Caulfield – Liberals (Labor due to redistribution)
Hastings – Liberals (Labor due to redistribution)
Mornington – Liberals
Sandringham – Liberals
Mildura – Independent
South Barwon – ALP
Box Hill – ALP
Ringwood – ALP

Liberals – 4, Labor – 3, Independent – 1

What are the Main Concerns of the Voters Voting Against Dan Andrews As per the Latest Survey?

The latest Freshwater Strategy found the following reasons for voters voting against Dan Andrews:

Covid and Lockdown: The majority of the Victoria residents considered the lockdown to be too long while 12 percent listed the handling of the pandemic and lockdowns as a reason for voting against Dan Andrews.
Accountability: 11 percent questioned the accountability of the Government and considered the Government to be not trustworthy.
Financial Management: The financial management by the ALP is also under question by a major section of voters voting against Dan Andrews. 11 percent are unhappy with the party’s financial management.

Findings from the latest Survey

The majority of the Victoria residents which is around 59% believed that the state was locked down for too long and restricted too much.
43% of the respondents were happy with the work done by Andrews and his Government during Covid. 44% rated it poor.
A major section of the voters believes that despite Dan Andrews winning again he may not serve the full 2nd term.
52% of the voters said they are worse off financially while 42% believe that they will be more financially stressed in the coming 12 months.
40% want Dan Andrews as Premier while 28% favor Matt Andrews.

Dan Andrews Approval Rating

Despite being in power for the last 2 terms, the incumbent Premier Daniel Andrews enjoys high approval amongst Victorians.
59% of those polled by Roy Morgan approve of Dan Andrew is handling his job
As per the latest rating by Resolve Strategic, 46% of Victorians think that Daniel Andrews will be a better Premier. This has come down slightly with respect to the poll by the firm, Newspoll where over 50% considered him to be a better premier.
According to the Newspoll Rating, 54% of the Victorians are satisfied with the work of Daniel Andrews while 41% considered he could have done better or are not satisfied with his work.

Support for Dan Andrews and his party is at the weakest among the youth between 18-34 years old. Only 9% of this age group are happy with the work of Dan Andrews.

Victoria Election Facts and News

13 of the current Labor MLAs will not be contesting the upcoming Victoria election. Labor currently has 55 seats in the Legislative assembly.
5 of the 27 Coalition MLAs will not the contesting the upcoming Victoria election.
Greens to benefit from the Coalition in three battleground seats of Northcote, Richmond, and Albert Park. The Coalition decided to send preferences to the Greens and put Labor last on its how-to-vote cards in these seats.

VIC Election Polls: Party Promises

Labor Party

Labor has pledged to slash all V/Line fares.
The party has also promised to order 23 new VLocity trains to be built locally and an extra 200-weekend V/Line services from 2024.
The Labor party promised to have regional train service capped at $9.20 a day for full-fare commuters, and $4.60 for concession card holders.
Labor promises free car rego for apprentices

Liberal Coalition

The Liberal Party coalition promised to halve V/Line ticket prices and cap all public transport fares in Melbourne at $2 a day.
The party also pledged to reduce household water bills.
Matthew Guy recently promised to halve the dental elective-surgery waiting list within four years.
Added to it the Guy promised to give a $500 voucher to half of the 64,000 waiting list for dental elective surgery so that they can have themselves treated at private dentists.

Latest Victorian Opinion Polls 2022: Google Trends

Last 7 days (Party)

ALP: 38%
Liberals Coalition: 45%
Greens: 17%

Last 7 days (Leader)

Dan Andrews: 76%
Matthew Guy: 22%
Samantha Ratnam: 2%

Last 7 days

Labor: -52.1%
Liberals: -79.7%
Greens: -31.9%

Last 7 days

Dan Andrews: (-59.5%)
Matthew Guy: (-64.4%)
Samantha (Ratnam): Not enough data

VIC Election Polls: Early Voting Date and Details

For the upcoming Victorian Election, the vote in person is fixed for Saturday, 26th November. However, between Monday 14 November, and Friday 25 November, the voting centers will open for early voting.

Around 4.4 million voters are enrolled in Victoria with 1.7 million people expected to vote at a pre-poll center. 600,000 people are expected to use postal votes.

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Victorian Election Polls: Leaders and Their Seat

Dan Andrews – Labor – Mulgrave
Matthew Guy – Coalition – Bulleen
Samantha Ratnam – Greens – MLC (NorthernMetropolitian)

Latest Victorian Opinion Polls 2022: Election Procedure and the Tenure

Victoria follows a compulsory voting system which means that all eligible citizens need to register and vote in the election. In case of failure to vote, the citizens may be subjected to a penalty if in case they are unable to furnish a valid reason for absenteeism.

In Victoria, the instant runoff voting method is followed. It is a kind of ranked preferential voting method. The majority voting rule is used to determine the single winner. The candidates are ranked by the voters with respect to their preferences. If a candidate has more than 50% of the 1st preference vote, the candidate is declared the winner. Else if there are more than 2 candidates and none gets 50% 1st preference votes, the candidates with few votes are eliminated first and their votes are added to the top two candidates on the basis of their preference.

The process continues until one candidate has more than half of the preference votes and finally the winner is declared.

The Victorian Legislative has a total of 88 seats. For the majority, a party or a coalition needs to win a minimum of 45 seats. On November 26th, the Victorians will vote to elect the 60th Parliament of Victoria. The term of each Parliament is of 4 years whereas the Federal Government of Australia is only for 3 years.