Wakefield Byelection Polls, Odds and Prediction
| Wakefield Byelection Polls, Odds and Prediction: For the Upcoming Wakefield byelection, the prediction and betting platforms have favoured a win for the Labour Party. |
After the resignation of Conservative Member of Parliament Imran Ahmed Khan, the MP seat from Wakefield Constituency became vacant. On June 23rd, Wakefield will be voting to elect its new Member of Parliament.
The election becomes very much important from the Conservatives’ point of view as in the recently concluded local election, Conservatives suffered a heavy loss while the Labour Party was able to improve its tally. The downfall of the Conservative Party benefitted both the Labour Party and the Liberals Democrats. Thus, the upcoming by-election turns out to be very much important for Conservatives as the Wakefield Parliamentary seat was held by the Conservatives before its MP resigned.
A win in the election can be advertised as the trust for the Conservatives while a defeat will be a big blow to the ruling Boris Johnson government. The Labour Party on the other will be looking forward to flipping the seat and sending a message of their growing influence and the decline of the Conservatives.
Wakefield Byelection Polls: Demographics
Wakefield is a constituency in the West Yorkshire region. As of 2021, the total population of Wakefield is 333,210. In the last 10 years, there has been a very small growth in the population of Wakefield. In 2011, the population of Wakefield was 329,800 and in 10 years the population grew by around 4000 people.
The majority of the population living in Wakefield are Christians. Christianity comprises around 78% of the total population. People following Islam are around 3% while Buddhism and Hinduism are less than 1 per cent.
Around 12% of the population have declared them to be following no religion.
Wakefield Byelection Polls, Odds and Prediction: Who Are the Candidates for the Byelection?
For the upcoming Wakefield byelection, 15 candidates have shown their interest in contesting. In 2019 General election, only 6 candidates had contested. The candidates contesting the upcoming Wakefield byelection are:
| Party | Candidate | |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | Nadeem Ahmed | |
| Independent | Akef Akbar | |
| CPA | Paul Bickerdike | |
| Freedom Alliance | Mick Dodgson | |
| Monster Raving Loony | Sir Archibald Stanton Earl ‘Eaton | |
| Independent | Jayda Fransen | |
| UKIP | Jordan Gaskell | |
| Yorkshire | David Herdson | |
| English Democrat | Therese Hirst | |
| Northern Independence | Christopher Jones | |
| Labour | Simon Lightwood | |
| Liberal Democrats | Jamie Needle | |
| Green | Ashley Routh | |
| Britain First | Ashlea Simon | |
| Reform UK | Chris Walsh |
Of the 15 candidates, the fight will be mainly between the Conservative candidate Nadeem Ahmed, Labour Candidate Simon Lightwood and the Liberal Democrats candidate Jamie Needle.
Wakefield Byelection Prediction and Odds
Wakefield has been one of the strongholds of Labour. Since the 1932 byelection Labour party has had its MP in Wakefield but in 2019, the Conservatives were able to flip the constituency and Imran Ahmed Khan became the MP of Wakefield. However, he resigned a month ago and the by-election has been called for June 23rd to elect the new MP of Wakefield. Here is what the Prediction and Betting platforms predict for the upcoming Wakefield byelection.
| Conservative Party | Labour Party | Yorkshire Party | |
| Smarkets | Odd: 11.0 | Odds: 1.02 | Odds: 25.0 |
| Oddschecker | Odds: 1/14 | Odds: 7/1 | Odds: 100/1 |
Wakefield Byelection Prediction and Odds: Last Five Election Data Comparison
2019 General Election
| Party | Candidates | Total Votes | Vote Percentage | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | Imran Ahmad Khan | 21,283 | 47.3 | |
| Labour | Mary Creagh | 17,925 | 39.8 | |
| Brexit Party | Peter Wiltshire | 2,725 | 6.1 | |
| Liberal Democrats | Jamie Needle | 1,772 | 3.9 | |
| Yorkshire | Ryan Kett | 868 | 1.9 |
In the last General election, Conservative Party candidate Imran Ahmad Khan got around 48% of total votes. Conservatives won the Wakefield constituency for the first time since 1932.
Wakefield Byelection Polls: 2017 General Election
| Party | Candidates | Total Votes | Vote Percentage | |
| Labour | Mary Creagh | 22,987 | 49.7 | |
| Conservative | Antony Calvert | 20,811 | 45.0 | |
| Yorkshire | Lucy Brown | 1,176 | 2.5 | |
| Liberal Democrats | Finbarr Cronin | 943 | 2.0 |
Wakefield Byelection Polls: 2015 General Election
| Party | Candidates | Total Votes | Vote Percentage | |
| Labour | Mary Creagh | 17,301 | 40.3 | |
| Conservative | Antony Calvert | 14,688 | 34.2 | |
| UKIP | Alan Hazelhurst | 7,862 | 18.3 | |
| Liberal Democrats | Finbarr Cronin | 1,483 | 3.5 | |
| Green | Rebecca Thackray | 1,069 | 2.5 |
Wakefield Byelection Polls: 2010 General Election
| Party | Candidates | Total Votes | Vote Percentage | |
| Labour | Mary Creagh | 17,454 | 39.3 | |
| Conservative | Alex Story | 15,841 | 35.6 | |
| Liberal Democrats | David Smith | 7,256 | 16.3 | |
| BNP | Ian Senior | 2,581 | 5.8 |
Wakefield Byelection Polls: 2005 General Election
| Party | Candidates | Total Votes | Vote Percentage | |
| Labour | Mary Creagh | 18,802 | 43.3 | |
| Conservative | Alec Shelbrooke | 13,648 | 31.5 | |
| Liberal Democrats | David Ridgway | 7,063 | 16.3 | |
| BNP | Grant Rowe | 1,328 | 3.1 |
The last five elections in Wakefield show the dominance of the Labour Party in the constituency. The Labour have been around 40-50% party in Wakefield. Even in the last election when Labour Party lost the constituency, they got around 40% vote share. However, the loss of around 10% vote share as compared to last election, directly benefitted the Conservatives and the newly formed Brexit Party. They received a total of 47% and 6% respectively.
To be more precise, the Brexit Party played an important part in the victory of the Conservative Candidate. In 2017, Conservatives polled 45% vote share and in 2019 they got 47%. But Labour lost a total of 10% and the Brexit Party polled 6%. It must be remembered that 63% of the voters who turned out voted to leave the European Union during the Brexit referendum.
