Will Jagan Be The Kingmaker?
Will Jagan Be The Kingmaker ? Andhra Pradesh, the state which once gave 42 MP’s played an important role in propelling Congress to power at the Centre in 2004 and 2009. After bifurcation, the state was left with 25 seats and rest went to the newly formed state of Telangana. In 2014, Chandrababu Naidu led TDP joined NDA alliance and the election in Andhra Pradesh became a keen contest between Mr. Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party and Mr. Jagan Reddy’s YSR Congress. An alliance with BJP ensured that TDP won the 2014 election. The party won 15 out of 25 Lok Sabha seats, YSR Congress was able to win 8 seats and BJP made it presence felt by winning 2 seats. The Congress which once dominated Andhra politics was unable to win a single seat in 2014 Lok Sabha election.
Five years down the line, the political equation in Andhra Pradesh has changed dramatically. The electoral battle is still between Mr. Naidu and Mr. Jagan Reddy but Mr. Naidu’s TDP is no more part of National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The party broke away from NDA after Mr. Modi’s refusal of granting special status to the state of Andhra Pradesh. However how beneficial will this decision of Chandrababu Naidu turn out to be will be decided when the election results are out. It must be however noted that, if in case Mr. Naidu’s TDP fails in this election, his political career may become a question mark. On other hand YSR Congress’s Jagan Mohan Reddy, believes that his party will be able to win 25 Lok Sabha seats in Andhra Pradesh and will be a key player in formation of government in New Delhi if in case there is a hung assembly.
CASTE EQUATION
In Andhra Pradesh, the politics is more or less dependent on Caste rhetoric and the capacity of political parties to gain their support. Mr. Naidu’s support base is generally among strong Backward Class (BC) and his own influential Kamma community. Mr. Reddy on other hand hoping to rule the state has tried to breach Mr. Naidu’s vote base by giving more tickets to BC’s as well as strengthening its own Reddy community. On other hand, Pawan Kalyan’s JanaSena which is hoping to make its electoral presence felt in Andhra as well national politics has large following among Kapu community. In 2014, the support of Pawan Kalyan to TDP helped Mr. Naidu gain large support of Kapu community but this time all these three political heads in Andhra are on its own.
HOW IS 2019 GOING TO SHAPE ANDHRA POLITICS?
In Andhra, politics has always been about social programmes and freebies. This time Naidu and Jagan have competed on who can give how much direct cash to voters. However how much these freebies will convert into votes will be known only once the results are announced. In the mean time let us try to analyse different predictions related to Andhra Pradesh Lok Sabha election.
First, we begin with some of predictions on Twitter after voting. These are opinions of these handles and the article is not endorsement of their predictions. Most have been retweeted, liked or commented much more than other such predictions.
After analyzing the various opinions relating to Andhra Pradesh Lok Sabha election, it is clear that Jagan Mohan Reddy will be the biggest gainer out of Centre-state tussle or in other words Modi-Naidu fight. YSR congress is heading towards landslide victory in Andhra Pradesh while the political ambition of both Mr. Naidu and Pawan Kalyan seems to have been completed decimated. Added to it many believe that Jagan will be the Kingmaker if there is a hung assembly in New Delhi.
In the CrowdWisdom’s prediction for Andhra Pradesh, Jagan has an 18 seat lead over Naidu and if historic trends come true (18% error for winner), YSRCP could end up with as much as 105 seats, a comfortable majority
Now, let us analyse Crowdwisdom’s prediction market and see what market holds for both TDP and YSR congress.
In CrowdWisdom’s prediction market, TDP winning majority in Andhra Pradesh has seen less buyers in this week. The chart clearly shows the rise and fall in trades of TDP in this week. Demand for TDP prediction is less than half of YSRCP winning a majority
On other hand, Jagan’s YSR Congress has been performing quite well this week in our prediction market. It is one of the highest in demand prediction
OUTCOME
Andra Pradesh election is going decide Mr. Naidu’s relevance not just in Andhra politics but also as a national leader. On other hand, Jagan’s victory will script a chapter of new leader who may in fact become a “Kingmaker”.
Also read about shifting loyalties in Andhra Politics.
WRITER: Nitesh Singh