Will Narendra Modi return as Prime Minister of India in 2019, Update-2
How is the Crowd Looking at the 2019 election?
Intro : The Crowd has managed to perform better than most exit pollsters in 2018. They have performed poorly in Chhattisgarh, Telangana and really well in Rajasthan. So one cannot ignore the crowd. The Crowd has on an average reported an error of 18% for the winner (Axis the best is at 14%). Second, given the question format (Multiple Choice) we will have higher cut-offs for BJP and lower cut-offs for Opposition. What we mean is, given the over representation of BJP supporters, we will believe a hypothesis is strong only if it crosses 60% for BJP and 40% for Opposition. With this in mind, let us look at the current predictions
Uttar Pradesh
BJP+ – 55% believe it will win more than 37 Seats (Predict Here), this down by nearly 6% compared two two weeks ago. This is probably due to the announcement of the SP-BSP alliance. Nearly a quarter of our members had earlier felt that this alliance would not come through. As a consequence the revised estimate is
About 61% believe that BP will win more than 31 Seats.
SP – About 42% believe it will win more than 19 Seats (Predict here), this was 40% two weeks ago, a marginal increase
BSP – About 47% believe BSP will win 12 or more seats. (Predict here), No major change over two weeks ago
Maharashtra
BJP – Nearly 60% believe that BJP will win more than 22 Seats on its own (Predict here). This remains at the same level compared to a fortnight ago
INC-NCP – About 46% now believe that the alliance will win more than 21 seats. (Predict here). Recent opinion polls showing 18 seats to the alliance may have pushed this a bit
Bengal
BJP – his continues to remain about 70% for more than 6 seats in Bengal (Predict here).
Bihar
BJP+ – 64% believe it will win more than 26 Seats (Predict Here),This has remained steady in the fortnight
The RJD+ alliance is predicted to win 16 or more seats in the election (Predict here)
Madhya Pradesh
BJP – 66% believe that the BJP will win 19 or more seats. (Predict Here). This is a marginal drop from two weeks ago.
Congress – 65% now believe that teh Congress will win 9 or more seats in 2019 (Predict Here). This is a marginal increase
Karnataka
BJP – 67% believe that the BJP will 15 seats or more (Predict here). This is a marginal drop
Congress – 47% believe the Congress will win 11 or more seats in 2019 (Predict here). This is a marginal drop compared to two weeks ago
Gujarat
BJP – 66% believe that the BJP will win 18 Seats or more in 2019 (Predict here),
Congress – 41% believe that the Congress will win 7 or more Seats in 2019 (Predict here)
Rajasthan
BJP – 69% believe that the BJP will win more than 11 Seats in 2019 (Predict here). This is a marginal drop from two weeks ago
Congress – 53% believe that the Congress party will win 12 or more seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. (Predict here)
Odisha
BJP – 60% believe that the BJP will win more than 9 Seats in 2019 (Predict here) This is a marginal drop compared to two weeks ago
BJD – 43% believe BJD will win 12 seats or more in 2019 (Predict here), Limited data
North East
BJP – 63% believe that the BJP will win 16 or more seats in 2019 (Predict here). The Crowd appears to have shrugged off the exit of AGP and the controversy over the citizen’s bill
Delhi
BJP – 66% believe that BJP will win 5 seats or more (Predict here) This has remained the same as two weeks ago
Haryana
BJP – 72% believe that BJP will win 4 or more seats, 57% believe it will be 7 or more seats. Predict here. This is limited data.
Punjab
Congress – 45% believe Congress will win 9 or more Seats in 2019. Predict here
Chhattisgarh
BJP – 63% believe that the party will 5 or more seats in 2019. Predict here. Limited data
Congress – Predict here
Jharkhand
BJP – 64% believe that the party will 7 or more seats in 2019. Predict here
Total of above for BJP = 197 Seats/ 496 Seats (assuming zero in TN and Andhra).
Pending –
Himachal, Uttarakhand, Goa. BJP won 12 Seats here. Telangana, Punjab, J&K, Kerala, Union Territories, BJP won 11 Seats here
Adding these 23 seats to the above along with about 15 alliance seats will take NDA to about 230 seats.
The Congress on the other hand appears to be gaining in Punjab, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, MP and Gujarat.
It is likely that BJP will do much better than what crowd is expecting in Gujarat, Rajasthan and be even Uttar Pradesh. But that would still leave NDA probably below 250 seats. Which is why the Shiv Sena alliance is crucial.
The reservations announcement appears to have had lesser impact on the predictions than the BSP-SP alliance announcement. On the other hand, one can say that the reservations announcement has stemmed any further losses that could have occurred during the last two weeks. Even with an optimistic prediction of 250 seats, the situation could get complex for BJP with numerous unreliable new alliance partners. Which is why one expects atleast one or two major announcements from the BJP during the budget or before to see if they can push NDA closer to the 273 mark.