Will Narendra Modi return as Prime Minister of India in 2019? Update -3

How is the Crowd Looking at the 2019 election?

Intro : The Crowd has managed to perform better than most exit pollsters in 2018. They have performed poorly in Chhattisgarh, Telangana and really well in Rajasthan. So one cannot ignore the crowd. The Crowd has on an average reported an error of 18% for the winner (Axis the best is at 14%). Second, given the question format (Multiple Choice) we will have higher cut-offs for BJP and lower cut-offs for Opposition. What we mean is, given the over representation of BJP supporters, we will believe a hypothesis is strong only if it crosses 60% for BJP and 40% for Opposition. With this in mind, let us look at the current predictions

Uttar Pradesh

BJP+ – 68% believe it will win 37 Seats or more(Predict Here), this is up from 55% nearly a month ago. The reason for the jump is clear, significant loss in momentum for the opposition and gains for BJP due to the budget as well as entry of Priyanka Gandhi

SP – About 41% believe it will win 20 Seats or more (Predict here), this was 40% nearly a month ago, a small fall

BSP – About 45% believe BSP will win 12 or more seats. (Predict here), this is down from 45%

Taking the above data into account, it is increasingly looking SP-BSP will end up with about 30-35 seats, NDA about 40-45 Seats and the rest about 5 seats

Maharashtra

BJP – Nearly 51% believe that BJP will win more than 22 Seats on its own (Predict here). This has crashed by nearly 10% over the last one month

INC-NCP – About 41% now believe that the alliance will win more than 21 seats. (Predict here). This has reduced significantly from 46% nearly a month ago

One explanation why both could be going down is probably due to the increased certainity of a BJP-SHS alliance.

Bengal

BJP – This has gone to 72% for more than 6 seats in Bengal (Predict here) compared to 70% 3 weeks ago

TMC – 43% expect Trinamool to win 27 seats or more, (Predict here) – New

That leaves about 9 seats that are likely to be won by the Left, Congress and perhaps the smaller parties. It is also likely that BJP’s prediction will soon be upgraded to 10 seats leving others at about 5.

Bihar

BJP+ – 64% believe it will win more than 26 Seats (Predict Here),This has remained same over the last 4 weeks. This is a bit of surprise given the fact that the farm income scheme would benefit the farmers of Bihar the most.

53% have predicted that RJD+ alliance will win 16 or more seats in the election (Predict here)

Madhya Pradesh

BJP – 66% believe that the BJP will win 19 or more seats. (Predict Here). This has remained consistent over the last two months

Congress – 60% now believe that the Congress will win 9 or more seats in 2019 (Predict Here). This is a drop of 6% from last month. 60% is a comfortable position though

Karnataka

BJP – 68% believe that the BJP will 15 seats or more (Predict here). No major change

Congress – 46% believe the Congress will win 11 or more seats in 2019 (Predict here).  This is a marginal drop compared to two weeks ago

Gujarat

BJP – 67% believe that the BJP will win 18 Seats or more in 2019 (Predict here), this is up 10% from a month ago. The by election win appears to have given BJP supporters the confidence for 2019

Congress – 39% believe that the Congress will win 7 or more Seats in 2019 (Predict here), this a drastic fall from previous month.

Rajasthan

BJP – 70% believe that the BJP will win more than 11 Seats in 2019 (Predict here). This is the same as last month.

Congress – 49% believe that the Congress party will win 12 or more seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. (Predict here). This is a marginal drop from the previous month

Odisha

BJP – 60% believe that the BJP will win more than 9 Seats in 2019 (Predict here) This is the same as one month ago.

BJD – 55% believe BJD will win 12 seats or more in 2019 (Predict here). This was 43% last month. (Limited data)

North East

BJP – 63% believe that the BJP will win 16 or more seats in 2019 (Predict here). This is the same as last month.

Delhi

BJP – 57% believe that BJP will win 5 seats or more (Predict here) This is down 10% points from a month ago. The potential of AAP and Congress giving strong competition seat wise might have caused a trend donwards

Haryana

BJP – 65% believe that BJP will win 4 or more seats. Predict here. This is limited data.

Punjab

Congress – 44% believe Congress will win 9 or more Seats in 2019. Predict here. This is the same as last month

Chhattisgarh

BJP – 58% believe that the party will 5 or more seats in 2019. Predict here. this is down from 63% last month.

Congress – 62% believe that the party will win 7 or more seats in 2019. Predict here

Jharkhand

BJP – 66% believe that the party will 7 or more seats in 2019. Predict here. This is the same as last month

In Sum

Total of above for BJP = 197 Seats/ 496 Seats (assuming zero in TN and Andhra). The probabilities for this number have gone up slightly owing to Uttar Pradesh.

Pending –

Himachal, Uttarakhand,  Goa. BJP won 12 Seats here. Telangana, Punjab, J&K, Kerala, Union Territories, BJP won 11 Seats here

Adding these 23 seats to the above along with about 15 alliance seats will take NDA to about 230 seats with a bias upwards

On the other hand, 

The Congress on the other hand appears to be gaining in Punjab, and Chhattisgarh.

Overall, last 40 days was quite interesting due to reservations, UP alliance announcement, Priyanka Gandhi announcement and of course the budget. The budget and reservations both appeared to have benefitted the BJP in urban India (according to our urban survey and Google Trends). The regional parties appear to be losing ground across the country.

However, with some 60 days for the election to go, many moves from both parties are expected. With 230 seats, the NDA will hope to tie in ADMK and YSCRP which may together win some 30 seats. The Opposition on the other hand will attempt to push this tally to about 220 seats to get a good opportunity to form the next Government. Given the upward bias for the BJP (as of now) one can say with high certainty that NDA will come to power. However, big moves by the Opposition could end this upward bias and change the probabilities in favour of a Maya-Mamata-Rahul Combination.