2021 German Election Polls: Google Trends shows CDU and SPD in Neck-to-Neck Fight

Germany is set to go in for polls on 26th September 2021 unless a state of Defense is called before it. Last German Federal election was held on 24th September 2017. The current Chancellor of Germany, Angela Merkel has been at the helm of power since 2005 when she was for the first time elected as a Chancellor.

Since then she has been re-elected thrice, that is in 2009, 2013, and 2018. However, this time Merkel won’t be running for re-election. After being in power for 21 years Merkel has decided to retire from politics this year after 16 years at the helm. 

After the decision of Merkel to quit politics, Germany’s Christian Conservative Union (CDU) elected Armin Laschet as the new Chairman of CDU. Armin Laschet has been serving as the Minister-President of the state of North Rhine-Westphalia since 27 June 2017. 

2021 German Election Polls: Last 7 Days Google Search

The latest Google Trend data for the last 7 days shows CDU and SPD are in a neck-to-neck fight. However, Olof Scholz has a slight edge over the ruling CDU.

2021 German Election Polls: Latest Polls

The latest German election poll has Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) leading the election race while ruling CDU-CSU are behind them. After a strong start, the Greens and Annalena Baerbock are now in 3rd spot. Looking at the recent opinion polls, a two-party majority government seems unlikely. If the polls hold true Germany may be heading for a 3 party Federal Government.

2021 German Election Polls: Preference of Betting and Prediction Markets

2021 German Election Polls: What Happened in the Last election?

The 2017 German Federal Election was fought between CDU/CSU coalition and SDP. After the election both CDU/CSU and SDP suffered significant losses.

None of the political parties had a majority to form a government, however, in order to avoid one more election, SPD leadership voted to enter into exploratory discussion on 15 December 2017. On February 7th, 2018 a new grand coalition was agreed and out of 78.39% of members of the German Bundestag, 66.02% voted in favor of another grand coalition. Angela Merkel was once again voted as Chancellor of Germany.

Current Position of Parties in German Bundestag

2021 German Election Polls: Who will be the next German Chancellor?

The 2021 German Federal Election is expected a cakewalk for Union, CDU/CSE. However, the major fight will be for the next German Chancellor.

For CDU after Angela Merkel, Armin Laschet is set to run for the post of German Chancellor. Their alliance partner CSU will have Markus Soder also in race for the upcoming German Federal election.

On 10 August 2020, the Social Democratic Party nominated incumbent Vice-Chancellor and Finance Minister Olaf Scholz as the party’s lead candidate for the election. He will be running against the Alliance candidate for the upcoming German federal election.

The prediction and betting platform, Smarkets, have indicated that the fight is going to be a close one. As of now, Olaf Scholz, current Vice Chancellor of Germany and Federal Minister of Finance since 14 March 2018 is predicted to be the next German Chancellor. Armin Laschet who became the face of CDU-CSU after Merkel stepped down is at second position.

As per Sky Bet, the winning odds for Olaf Scholz is 1/4 while Armin Laschet is 11/4.

2021 German Election Polls: German Electoral System (Source: Wikipedia)

. The Bundestag has 598 nominal members, elected for a four-year term; these seats are distributed between the sixteen German states. Every elector has two votes: a constituency vote (first vote) and a party list vote (second vote).

Based solely on the first votes, 299 members are elected in single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting. The second votes are used to produce a proportional number of seats for parties, first in the states, and then in the Bundestag.  If a party wins fewer constituency seats in a state than its second votes would entitle it to, it receives additional seats from the relevant state list.

If a party, by winning single-member constituencies in one state, receives more seats than it would be entitled to according to its second vote share in that state, the other parties receive compensation seats. Owing to this provision, the Bundestag usually has more than 598 members. 

In order to qualify for seats based on the party-list vote share, a party must either win three single-member constituencies via first votes or exceed a threshold of 5% of the second votes nationwide. If a party only wins one or two single-member constituencies and fails to get at least 5% of the second votes, it keeps the single-member seat(s), but other parties that accomplish at least one of the two threshold conditions receive compensation seats.

2021 German Federal Election Betting Odds Predictions: What does the Opinion Polls Predict?

The German Federal Election Opinion polls predict the Union returning to power once again. As per the latest opinion poll released by INSA which conducted fieldwork between 12-15th February, Union (CDU/CSU) may win around 33.5% vote share while SPD may win just 17% votes share.

Alternative for Germany, a right-wing party may poll 10.5% while the Green party may poll 17%.

Another firm, GMS too gives Union an edge over the rest. As per their latest poll, Union may poll 37% votes share while SPD may poll 17% and Green Party 18%.

2021 German Election Polls: Predicted Winner

Looking at the opinion polls and the prediction and betting platforms, smaller parties may play a bigger role in government formation. SPD leader Olaf Scholz may become the next German Chancellor.

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