2022 Alaska Senate Polls: Murkowski defeats Tshibaka in the Alaska Senate Race after Ranked Choice Votes are counted

November 24, 2022

Counting Update, Ranked Choice

Lisa Murkowski: 53.7%
Kelly Tshibaka: 46.3%

Alaska Senate Polls (Round 1): Lisa Murkowski 39.4%, Kelly Tshibaka 42.5%

Alaska Senate Polls (Ranked Choice): Murkowski 52.8%, Tshibaka: 47.2%

Alaska Senate Primary Results: Lisa Murkowski 44.2%, Kelly Tshibaka 39.8%

Google Search Volume: Lisa Murkowski 46%, Kelly Tshibaka 64%
Social Media Net Sentiments: Lisa Murkowski -27.4%, Kelly Tshibaka -27.8%

CrowdwisdomLIVE Prediction: Lisa Murkowski to win by 5% due to Ranked Choice voting

The Alaska General election will be held on November 8^th,2022 to elect a representative of Alaska State. The Incumbent Lisa Murkowski, Republican and a three-time Senator from Alaska, will be seeking a fourth term. On August 16th in the Primary election, the incumbent Lisa Murkowski defeated the Trump-endorsed Kelly Tshibaka in a closely fought election. Both candidates have now advanced to the General election scheduled for November 8th

Alaska Senate Race 2022 Predictions: Who is Gaining?

Ranked Choice Polls: Murkowski
Google Search: Tshibaka
Social Media Sentiment: Tshibaka

Murkowski Polls 2022: Observations and Insights

Lisa Murkowski appears to have picked momentum in the latest Google search and social media sentiment data. On Google search she is performing better than the primary while on social media sentiment, her negative ratings have fallen significantly. Is it the Peltola factor? Murkowski confessed she would vote for Peltola, see our analysis below
- Lisa Murkowski is likely to be re-elected as a senator in the forthcoming Alaska Senate Race. The race is now being billed as a battle between Mitch McConnell (Senate Minority Leader) and Donald Trump.
The last two Polls have provided contradictory outcomes which give the appearance that the election is too close to call.
- The AARP Alaska poll predicts a tie even after ranked-choice voting. This poll predicts Tshibaka to lead 46-38 in the election [Before Ranked Choice Voting]
- The Alaska Survey Research Poll gives Murkowski a massive 57-43 lead after ranked-choice voting. That is because this poll predicts Murkowski to lead 42-42 before the ranked-choice voting
- Our hypotheses: The two polls were carried out two weeks apart. Second, the AARP poll appears to over-index Republicans compared to registration data. It is possibly due to an enthusiasm metric being included in the calculation.
According to the latest report published by Alaska Survey Research Murkowski is slightly leading over Tshibaka. Around 44% of voters have a favorable opinion of Murkowski while approximately 50% view him negatively. While 34% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of Tshibaka and around 43% of voters have an unfavorable idea of him. The research concludes Murkowski leads over Tshibaka amongst the young voter population (18-34 years of age).
Why did Murkowski appear to endorse Peltola on Friday evening?
- Murkowski has been underperforming Peltola amongst key groups of voters and this was her attempt to consolidate those votes in her favor.
- Secondly, there is no love lost between Palin and Murkowski, so it was unlikely anyway that Murkowski would have voted for Palin.
- In the meanwhile, Kelly Tshibaka accused Murkowski of playing for Nancy Pelosi and not Alaska
- Sarah Palin had some kind words for her rival Mary Peltola
What should worry Lisa Murkowski?
- Murkowski is underperforming Democrat Peltola amongst most voting segments probably because of her long career in politics
- While Murkowski has raised more cash than Tshibaka, her in-state funds raised are 30% lower than Tshibaka
- She is struggling amongst Urban voters trailing Tshibaka in the first round of voting
- In Juneau, Murkowski is underperforming Peltola by a much larger margin than in Anchorage
Why Murkowski will win in Alaska?
- While Trump won Alaska, he won just 53% of the votes beating Biden by 10%
- Murkowski is likely to win about 10% of the votes that Trump won in 2020 and in ranked-choice voting, that should give her a very narrow win against Tshibaka.
In the meanwhile, Alaska Republicans have called on Kentucky Republicans to censure Mitch McConnell for supporting Lisa Murkowski.
Why is Mitch McConnell pouring money into Alaska and not into Arizona? The equation is simple if Lisa Murkowski wins and Blake Masters loses, Mitch McConnell would still remain in charge of the GOP in the Senate. But if both Tshibaka and Masters win, Mitch McConnell’s political career is likely to end.

Alaska Senate Polls: Latest Murkowski Polls 2022

Average of all Round 1 Polls	November 8th
*Murkowski (R)*	*39.4%*
*Tshibaka (R)*	*42.5%*
Alaska Survey Research	October 19th to 22nd
*Murkowski (R)*	*40.8%*
*Tshibaka (R)*	*38.9%*
Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D)	September 11th
*Murkowski (R)*	*38%*
*Tshibaka (R)*	*46%*

Alaska Senate Polls: Ranked Choice Polls

Average of all Polls	November 8th
*Murkowski (R)*	*52.8%*
*Tshibaka (R)*	*47.2%*
Alaska Survey Research	October 19th to 22nd
*Murkowski (R)*	*55.5%*
*Tshibaka (R)*	*44.5%*
Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D)	September 11th
*Murkowski (R)*	*50%*
*Tshibaka (R)*	*50%*

Click here for Alaska House Polls: Mary Peltola vs Sarah Palin

Alaska Senate Election Polls: Google Trends

Last 7 days

Lisa Murkowski: 44% (Rising)
Kelly Tshibaka: 66% (Falling)

7 Days before the August Primary

Lisa Murkowski: 40%
Kelly Tshibaka: 60%

Murkowski: -27.4% (Deteriorating)
Tshibaka: -27.8% (Steady)

Alaska Senate Polls: Fundraising Details

Lisa Murkowski has been able to raise over $9M to finance her campaign for the upcoming Alaska Senate race. As of now, she has been able to spend slightly over $3M, and with a few more months to go before the General election, Murkowski has around $6M cash in hand.

Lisa Murkowski’s main source of finance has been Large individual contributions which are nearly 60% of her total fund.

Kelly Tshibaka (R)

Kelly Tshibaka is trailing Lisa Murkowski when it comes to raising funds for her campaign. Kelly has been able to raise around $3M for her campaign. She has already used up around $2M and she has around $1.10M fund left with her.

Large Individual contributions account for around 70% of Kelly’s funding.

Voter Registration Statistics in Alaska

Republican Party – 142,266
Democratic Party – 78,664
Other Parties – 11,025
Alaskan Independence Party – 17,861
Non-Partisan – 80,972
Undeclared – 259,634

Alaska Senate Race Polls: Polling Average Last 3 elections and Result

Alaska has been a Republican-dominated state and in the last 3 decades, there has been only Republican Senate from Alaska. Lisa Murkowski has been a senator from Alaska since 2004. This year she is running for the 4th time to be elected as the Senator from Alaska. The last three Senate election in Alaska was held in the year 2016, 2010, and 2004. Here are the details about the last 3 Senate elections in Alaska:

2016 Alaska Senate Race: 2016 Alaska Senate was one of the most interesting senate elections in Alaska when a Libertarian polled more votes than the Democratic Party nominee. The election to elect a Senator from Alaska was held on November 8, 2016. Lisa Murkowski ran to be re-elected for the 3rd time as Senator of Alaska. Her main challenger was Libertarian Joe Miller who had defeated Murkowski for the Republican nomination six years before.

The polls for the Senate election predicted an easy win for Lisa Murkowski, however, almost all the polls underestimated her Libertarian challenger Joe Miller. The polls predicted Lisa winning nearly 50% vote share while Joe Miller was predicted to be less than 20% of the total votes. The election result was slightly different than what was predicted. Lisa Murkowski won the election but she was able to poll around 44.4% vote share while her Libertarian challenger polled a 29.2% vote share.

2010 Alaska Senate Race: The 2010 Alaska Senate election was held on November 2nd, 2010. Before the General election, a primary election was held on August 24, 2010. Joe Miller became the Republican nominee after defeating Lisa Murkowski in the Primary election. However, Murkowski announced that she will be running in the general election as a write-in candidate despite her defeat in the Primary election.

The polls for the General election had Joe Miller ahead of Lisa Murkowski. Almost all the polls gave Joe Miller around a 10% lead over Lisa Murkowski. However, the result was different from the polls. Lisa Murkowski defeated Joe Miller and went on to become the Senator once again. Lisa got a 39.9% vote share while Joe Miller received a 35.5% vote share.

Alaska Senate Race Polls: Result of Primary Election

Lisa Murkowski: 44.2% Kelly Tshibaka: 39.8%

Alaska Senate Race 2022 polls: Frequently Asked Questions

How many senators represent the state?

As per the constitution, there are two senators from each state. The senator must be at least thirty years of age and must be a citizen of the US for nine years. After getting elected the senator should be a citizen of Alaska.

Is Alaska red or blue?

Mostly Alaska gives more support to Republicans in presidential elections. Republicans have managed to win every state election except in 1964.

Alaska Senate Race: Demographics

As per the latest 2020 census figures, the Demographic composition of Alaska State stands as follows

White alone – 61.6%
Black Alone – 12.4%
Hispanic – 18.7%
Asian Alone – 6.0%
Others – 9.7%

The Population of Alaska has increased by 7.4% since the last election and the diversity of the state has increased by 6 percent due to the rapid growth in the black population. The black population has increased by 37.1% since 2010.

Alaska Senate Election Polls: How did the state vote in the Last Presidential Election?

Donald Trump despite failing in his re-election performed excellently in Alaska. Trump carried Alaska as he won the state by securing 189,951 votes which is 52.83% of the total votes. He defeated Biden by 10%.

Biden did win Anchorage, the state’s largest city, making him the first Democrat to do so since Johnson. But Trump did fairly well in Kanai Peninsula and the Matanuska-Susitna Borough where he secured mammoth 70% votes offsetting Anchorage’s loss.

Republicans have won the last fourteen -presidential elections in Alaska.