Arizona Governor Polls 2022: Katie Hobbs Elected Governor of Arizona beating Kari Lake by 18k votes

November 20, 2022

Election Day Updates

Counting

Kari Lake: 1,268,914 Votes, 49.66%
Katie Hobbs: 1,286,064 Votes, 50.4%

Exit Polls

Republicans: Kari Lake 91%, Katie Hobbs: 9%
Democrats: Kari Lake 4%, Katie Hobbs: 95%
Independents: Kari Lake 45%, Katie Hobbs: 52%

Arizona Governor Polls 2022 Kari Lake: 50%, and Katie Hobbs: 47%.

Google Search Share: Kari Lake: 70%, Katie Hobbs: 30%.

Social Media Sentiment: Kari Lake: -54%, Katie Hobbs -27.1%.

The 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election will take place on November 8, 2022, between former news Anchor Kari Lake of the Republican Party and current Secretary of State, Katie Hobbs of the Democratic Party. If you want to read their profiles in detail, click here. Use the back button to come back here.

2022 Arizona Governor Elections Predictions

Kari Lake is likely to win the 2022 Arizona Gubernatorial Election.
Over the last 30 days, Kari Lake has gained 2.3% while Katie Hobbs has stayed at the same level
Among Pollsters who predicted the 2020 US Presidential election in Arizona accurately, Kari Lake leads Katie Hobbs 49% to 47%
Over the last 30 days, Kari Lake’s lead on Google searches rose from 28 points to 40 points

Given the above trends, Kari Lake is well positioned to win the race by about 4-5 points.

Arizona Governor Race 2022 Polls: Key Observations and Insights

Why is Kari Lake not running away with a landslide, just like Governor Ducey?

Kari Lake is a highly polarizing candidate. On Social media, her net rating is at -65%, and Katie Hobbs who has been pilloried by Kari Lake is at -56.9%. Now here is a fun fact, Biden is at -47.1% while Trump is at -56.1%. Both candidates are performing worse than Biden and Trump both of who are not exactly popular at the moment.
According to the latest data orbital poll, 10-15% of republicans are voting for Katie Hobbs

Kari Lake vs Katie Hobbs, Strengths and Weakness by Demography

According to the latest Data Orbital Poll, Kari Lake leads by 6% among Men while trailing by 1% among Women
Kari Lake leads by 10-15% in the most critical Independent voter group. This could rise to 20% by the end of the election.
Katie Hobbs leads among voters under the age of 45 while Kari Lake leads among voters older than 45
Kari Lake leads in Maricopa, a County that usually determines the eventual winner
Katie Hobbs leads Kari Lake by 35 points amongst Moderate voters. While the biggest group of Arizona voters are Conservative, a majority of voters are either Liberal or Moderate.
While Kari Lake leads amongst the more affluent and less educated, Katie Hobbs leads amongst the more educated and those with middle incomes.

Findings of the Latest Poll

Nearly 60% of the male voters in Arizona are backing Kari Lake while Katie Hobbs enjoys the support of more female voters as compared to Kari Lake.
More voters with a degree are backing Katie Hobbs while Kari Lake is accepted highly among the voters with no college degree.
Both Lake and Hobbs are highly backed by the respective Republican and Democrat voters. Both enjoy 90% support among the Republican and the Democrat voters respectively.
Voters in Rural Arizona are more likely to support Kari Lake while in the Urban area both enjoy almost equal support.
White and Hispanic voters are more likely to vote for Kari Lake while the Black voters are solidly behind Katie Hobbs.

Katie Hobbs vs Kari Lake Polls

Average of Polls	November 8th
*Kari Lake (R)*	*50%*
*Katie Hobbs (D)*	*47%*
Trafalgar Grup (R)	November 7th
*Kari Lake (R)*	*51%*
*Katie Hobbs (D)*	*47%*
Data Orbital	November 6th
*Kari Lake (R)*	*50%*
*Katie Hobbs (D)*	*47%*
Research Co	November 6th
*Kari Lake (R)*	*49%*
*Katie Hobbs (D)*	*47%*

What are the Major Factors Influencing the November 8 Election?

The recent survey by Susquehanna Polling and Research found that six factors were going to influence the voting pattern in the upcoming Arizona Governor election. The six major factors are:

Gas/Inflation/Economy
Abortion
Immigration/border security
Climate Change
Crime/Public Safety
Taxes/Federal Spending

The top three factors will play a key role of the above six factors. Around 45% of the respondents believed that the rising Gas price, deteriorating economic conditions,s and rising inflation will be the most important factor for deciding voting preference. In this field, Kari Lake has an advantage.

36% of the respondents considered the abortion issue to be the major factor. Most of the voters with abortion as the main issue back Katie Hobbs.

Immigration and border security is influencing factors among 33% of the respondents. Lake may walk out with more support among this section of voters.

The other factors may not impact the voters as much as these three factors may impact. The election has been predicted to be a close one and as of now, it may still be considered to be a toss-up.

What Do the Latest Kari Lake Polls Mean For Katie Hobbs?

In over a decade, the race for the office of Arizona’s Governornor for the first time became competitive as in the last few elections, the Republicans have had an easy run.

The polls have given both candidates Kari Lake and Katie Hobbs equal chances of winning the race. Hobbs has been ahead of Kari Lake in most of the polls released since the last week of September 2022. However, the last two Kari Lake Polls have favored Kari Lake and have shown Lake leading by 3% over Katie Hobbs.

For Katie Hobbs, the recent poll numbers may not be encouraging as she has been trying to avoid debating Kari Lake. The polls indicated that more independents are now backing Kari lake thus Katie Hobbs is failing to attract the section of voters who hold key to the upcoming Arizona Governor election. Added to it the latest Kari Lake polls also show Hobbs losing the support of the voters between the ages of 18 to 39.

Why is Kari Lake Underperforming Governor Ducey?

Arizona is one red state which is increasingly turning purple as Kari Lake’s lead is narrowing in the latest polls. It indicates that Former President Trump’s strong support for Lake is a doubtful advantage in attracting some voters and at the same time repelling others. The Former President is expected to return to Arizona for an Oct. 9 rally to support his endorsed Arizona candidates ahead of the Nov. 8 election.
Kari Lake is struggling amongst voters born in Arizona where she is tied against Katie Hobbs.
A judge in Arizona judge ruled that the state can enforce a near-total abortion ban after Roe vs Wade was overturned. This gives the Democratic a small bump of about 2%.
Joe Biden’s approval rating in the state is 41% while only 32% of the Arizonians are happy with the working of the incumbent Governor Doug Ducey.

Kari Lake vs Katie Hobbs, Strengths and Weakness by Issue

The key issues among the voters of Arizona are:
- Economy
- Inflation
- Immigration
- Border Control
- Abortion
Abortion has been the central theme of the Katie Hobbs campaign but more than that the issues of the Economy, rising inflation, immigration, and border control are more matters of concern for the Arizona voters.
On the Economy, the voters are not happy with both the Federal and the State governments but the ones with the Economy as the main concern are more likely to back Kari Lake.
Inflation is one of the major concerns and the Biden admin is in the line of fire for this. Kari Lake has an advantage over this section of voters. The voters with Immigration and Border control as their main concern are likely to back Kari Lake.

Why Kari Lake will win the Arizona Gubernatorial Election 2022

While it is true that Kari Lake is underperforming past GOP candidates, Katie Hobbs is underperforming Joe Biden. Joe Biden won Arizona by a very narrow margin.
Democrats have won very few elections in a state that has recently voted overwhelmingly Republican. Republican registrations lead Democrats by 3.5% but 1 in 3 voters are registered as Independent.
Katie Hobbs needs a 6% swing from historic averages to win the election, and Kari Lake needs to keep the losses below that.

Read about other Popular Mid-Term Elections

Latest Google Search Trends

Last 7 Days

Kari Lake: 70% (Increased)
Katie Hobbs: 30% (Decreased)

Last 7 Days

Kari Lake: -54% (Improved)
Katie Hobbs: -27.1% (Marginally Deteriorated)

Demographics and Voter Registration data

Arizona is a white-majority state with a large Hispanic population. Latinos make up the majority in Phoenix and Tucson as well as along the border. 63% of the population lives in Maricopa County which is home to Phoenix and other cities like Scottsdale, Mesa, and Tempe. It is the 4th most populous county in the USA.

Biden became the first Democratic nominee to win the county since 1948, helping him win the state. This is the most important county in the state, and maybe the country.

As per the latest 2020 Census figures, Whites alone make up for 53% of the State’s population while Hispanics make up 32% of the State’s population. African Americans and Asians make up 9% of the population. Multi-racial and other small demographic groups make up for another 9% of the voters.

The White voters have mostly backed Republicans in the past though Kari Lake appears to be struggling amongst these groups of voters. Fortunately for her, she is performing very well amongst Hispanic voters. Ironically, the Hispanic population of Arizona grew at a faster pace under Donald Trump than Barack Obama and it appears now that Hispanic voters will take Kari Lake over the finishing line.

Voter Registration Data

From the latest figures released by the Arizona Secretary of State.

As of April 2022, the state has 4.29 Million Registered Voters.

34.5% are registered as a Republican
31.0% are registered as a Democrat
33.7% are registered as an Independent

Arizona Governor Candidates 2022

The Republican Party Candidate Kari Lake, 53, is a former evening anchor at Fox-10 in Phoenix Arizona. She worked at Fox between 1999 and 2021. She was a Republican until 2006 before switching to being an Independent in 2006, registered as a Democrat in 2008, and returned to the Republican party again in 2012. Kari Lake was endorsed by former President Donald Trump before the Republican Primary. More details here

The Democratic Party Candidate Katie Hobbs, 52, was a social worker until 2010 before being elected to the Arizona House of Representatives as a Democrat 2010. She was elected to the Arizona Senate in 2012 and served as the Senate Minority Leader.