Arkansas Governor Race Polls 2022: Sarah Sanders wins by a BIG margin over Chris Jones.

November 9, 2022

Election Day Updates

Early Counts

Sarah Sanders: 55.8%
Chris Jones: 42.9%

Arkansas Governor Race Polls 2022: Sarah Huckabee Sanders 53.6%, Chris Jones 36.3%
Google Search Share: Sarah Huckabee Sanders 43%, Chris Jones 57%
Social Media Sentiments: Sarah Sanders +21.1%, Chris Jones +57.9%

Crowdwisdom360 Forecast: Sarah Huckabee Sanders to win by 20% margin

When is the Arkansas Governor’s election?

The Arkansas gubernatorial election will take place on November 8, 2022, to elect a new governor for the state of Arkansas.

Arkansas Governor Race Polls 2022: Candidates

Sarah Huckabee Sanders (Republican Party)- Former White House Secretary under President Trump

Chris Jones (Democratic Party)- an MS, and Ph.D. from MIT, Minister, and a nonprofit leader

2022 Arkansas Governor Race Prediction: Who is Gaining?

Polls: Steady
Google Search Share: Jones
Social Media Sentiment: Jones

Arkansas Governor Polls: Who will win the Arkansas Governor Race?

Sarah Huckabee Sanders is well placed to win the 2022 Arkansas Governor race given her considerable lead in the polls. It is unlikely that democrat Chris Jones will be able to bridge the gap in 2 and half weeks.

Arkansas Governor Race Polls: Observations and Insights

Who won the debate on Friday?
- Sara Sanders saw a 10% jump in google search share in the 24 hours after the debate
- Social Media Sentiments about Chris Jones deteriorated significantly after the debate
- Sarah Sanders has certainly gained after the debate.
Debate Highlights:
- State vs Federal politics: Jones said he is a 7th-generation Arkansan and wants to focus on preschool, broadband, and jobs. Sanders said she wants to strike a balance between both as they are interdependent.
- Arkansas’ ban on gender-affirming care: Comparing the measure to tobacco and alcohol age limits, Sanders said she would’ve signed the legislation because she sees it as protecting minors. While Jones said families and doctors should make these decisions, not politicians. He said he would have trusted the parents and youth to take the best-suited decision for themselves.
- Tax Reforms: Sanders said she wants to phase out the state income tax so that people have more to spend. She noted that the administration should be more efficient and expect better results from its fiscal spending. Jones also wants to cut taxes but says the math has to add up. He accused the GOP of wasting money in Arkansas.
- Accessibility to Media: Both candidates had contrasting views on Media accessibility. Jones said the news media plays a crucial and vital role in society and allows people to see what’s happening with their government. He said he is accessible to the media and accused Sanders of not engaging with local journalists. Sanders said she prefers to cut out the middleman and talk to voters on her own terms.
The latest poll by Hendrix College reports that Chris Jones has made no progress over the last 30 days.
- Sanders has near universal support of Republicans (88%), while Jones has the same among Democrats (95%).
- Independent voters lean towards Jones by (46% to 43%), the same as they did in the previous poll in September.
- Jones is leading amongst young voters under 30 by 51% and by 44% in the 30-44 age group. While Sanders continues to lead among the oldest two age categories 53-57%).
On Google, Chris Jones appears to have made some progress in October
- August, Sarah Huckabee Sanders: 33%, Chris Jones: 67%
- September, Sarah Huckabee Sanders: 46%, Chris Jones: 54%
- October, Sarah Huckabee Sanders: 36%, Chris Jones: 64%
Incumbent Governor Asa Hutchison enjoys a 57% approval rating even as the state underperforms the national average on some metrics
- Per Capita Growth: Below Average
- Change in Homicide Mortality rate: Higher than the National average
- Increase in healthcare costs – Lower than the National average
- Unemployment – Close to the National Average
Why will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the Gubernatorial Race?
- Sarah Sanders enjoys a +28% net favorability rating, Chris Jones at +0%
- With high approval ratings of the Incumbent Hutchison and 46% of the voters registered as Republicans, Sarah Sanders needed to persuade only a small proportion of Independents to win the Gubernatorial election.
- Further, Arkansas is the 6th most rural state and the republicans enjoy a huge lead in rural Arkansas.
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders has the huge support of rural voters over the age of 45 lacking a college degree.
- In terms of funding, Sarah Huckabee is well ahead of her challenger, Chris Jones.

Why is Chris Jones Struggling?
- Chris Jones has suffered from low familiarity levels even as interest levels were increasing in September. It plateaued in October relative to Sarah Huckabee. 58% of the voters mentioned that they were either unsure or had no opinion of Chris Jones.
- Chris Jones has failed to make progress with older voters who form a larger majority of the population. Unlike Democrats in other states, he has failed to build a lead among women in Arkansas
- That said, Chris Jones is better placed than Democratic party candidates in recent elections in Arkansas. In August 2018, the Incumbent Governor Asa Hutchinson led Democrat Jared Henderson 76-24 on Google Search. Jones leads Sanders 60%-40%

Arkansas Governor Race Polls 2022: Sarah Sanders Polls

Average of Polls	November 8th
*Sanders (R)*	*53.6%*
*Jones (D)*	*36.3%*
University of Arkansas	October 13th-31st
*Sanders (R)*	51%
*Jones (D)*	34%
Hendrix College	October 17th-18th
*Sanders (R)*	*51%*
*Jones (D)*	*41%*
Remington Research	September 15th
*Sanders (R)*	*59%*
*Jones (D)*	*34%*
Average of Last 3 Elections
*Republican*	*56.3%*
*Democrat*	*40.5%*

Check out The Georgia Senate and Governor Race Polls

Arkansas Governor Race Polls 2022: Google Search Trends

Last 7 Days

Sarah Sanders: 43%
Chris Jones: 57%

Last 7 Days

Sarah Sanders: +21.1% [Improving]
Chris Jones: +57.9% [Improving]

Arkansas Governor Race Polls 2022: Last Election Results

In the Last Arkansas Governor election which was held in 2018, the Republican Asa Hutchinson won re-election to a second term, by winning 33 percentage points in all seven counties. Asa Hutchinson Defeated Democrat Jared Henderson and Mark West and received a 65% vote share. Republican Asa Hutchinson won the Polls by the Largest margin and also created history.

Arkansas Governor Race Polls 2022: Demographic analysis

Voting age Population- 2.2 Million.

The Population density in Arkansas is 56 and The median age is 36. Nearly 75% of the population is over eighteen years of age.

Race

White: 77%
Black: 15%
Others: 8%

Gender

Male: 48.1%
Female: 51.9%

Age

18-29 years: 20.7%
30-44 years: 23.6%
45-64 years: 32.4%
65+ years: 23.3%

European Americans have a strong presence in Arkansas, the northwestern Ozarks, and the central part of the state. Southern and eastern parts of Arkansas have a stronghold of African Americans.

Arkansas is also home to the ten largest ancestry groups in the state African American, Irish, German, American, English, French, Scott-Irish, Dutch, Scottish and Italian.