Fetterman vs Oz Polls: Fetterman wins Pennsylvania Senator Race

November 9, 2022

Election Day Updates

Counting (91% Completed)

Fetterman 49.9% (Projected: 49-51%)
Dr. Oz 47.7% (Projected: 48-50%)

Last 30 minutes Trend: Fetterman Gains, leads by 106k votes

Exit Poll

Republicans: Dr. Oz 91%, Fetterman 9%
Democrats: Dr. Oz 6%, Fetterman 93%
Independents: Dr. Oz 39%, Fetterman 57%

Fetterman vs Oz Polls average: John Fetterman: 47%, Mehmet Oz: 48%

The 2022 Senate Election in Pennsylvania is set to take place on November 8th. Pennsylvania Senate Race Candidates include John Fetterman (D), Lt Governor of Pennsylvania, Dr. Oz (R), Turkish-American Television Presenter, Richard Weiss of the Green Party, and Erik Chase Gerhardt.

Pennsylvania Senate Race 2022 Predictions: Who is Gaining?

At the moment, Dr. Oz leads John Fetterman by 2 points.

In the polls completed over the last 10 days, Dr. Oz led Fetterman in 6, Trailed in 3, and was tied in 1 poll
In the last polls released by pollsters who performed well in the 2020 election, it is Oz at 47% and Fetterman at 47.3%
Compared to a month ago, Fetterman is down 1.4% while Dr. Oz is up by 4 points

On Google search which is often a good predictor of elections –

Over the last 30 days, Fetterman led Dr.Oz by 56 Points
As per the last 7 days’ data, Fetterman is ahead of Dr.Oz by 34 points. But the search volume for Dr. Oz has been rising.

The net social media sentiment for John Fetterman has improved marginally.

Overall, it appears the election is trending in favor of Dr. Oz and he is most likely to win the election

Fetterman vs Oz Polls: Observations and Insights

In the latest Insider Advantage poll
- Dr. Oz has increased his lead among Men from 18.5 points to 21.1 points over a week
- Among Independent voters, Dr. Oz has increased his lead from 32 points to 43 points
- The primary jump for Dr. Oz came from the Debate with 54% saying he won the debate. Only 41% of Democrats believe Fetterman won the debate,
The Wick Poll completed after the debate gives us. a great sense of the campaign momentum
- Fetterman +1, Oz -1, Overall Dr. Oz leads by 3 points
- Cost of living, Economy, and Immigration were the top issues for 49% of the voters
- Democracy, Abortion, Climate Change, and Guns were top issues for 48% of the voters
- Overall, in terms of issues, the Republicans appear to have an edge thanks to the high inflation.
In the latest co/efficient Poll (after the debate)
- 51% of women had a favorable view of Fetterman while only 35% of Men had a favorable view of Fetterman. Dr. Oz was marginally ahead among men with only 39% having a favorable view of him. Among women, only 31% had a favorable opinion of Dr. Oz
- This means that 15% of Men who did not have a favorable opinion of Dr. Oz were willing to vote for him. Most of them were Republicans.
- Among Independent voters, Dr. Oz outperformed Fetterman on Favorability. This alone could be enough to win the election. Josh Shapiro (D) led Fetterman (D) by 10 points among Independent voters.
- It is fairly clear now that how Fetterman handled his illness played a crucial factor in his current situation.
Here is why Fetterman could still win
- While there appears to be an overall swing toward Dr. Oz, individual polls are showing a peculiar trend
  - The Insider Advantage Poll shows no gains for Dr. Oz in one week
  - Trafalgar shows Fetterman has lost just 1 point in a month though the same poll shows Dr. Oz gaining by 3
  - Emerson shows Fetterman gained 2 points in October while Dr. Oz gained 5
- 16% of Black voters are undecided, this constitutes about 1.5% of the vote. This takes Fetterman closer to the 50% mark, he will need to manage another 1% to win the election
- Fetterman still leads considerably on Google searches and somewhat on Social Media. If he sustains this until election day, he could still win.
Here is why Oz could win
- Oz is gaining share at a faster pace than Fetterman
- About 6% of Independent voters are yet to make up their minds. Many of these are likely to vote for Dr. Oz. Additionally, about 3.8% of GOP voters are yet to make up their minds.
- These 2 groups could take Dr. Fetterman to 50% and win him the election.

Pennsylvania Senate Polls 2022: Fetterman vs Oz Polls

Average of Polls	November 8th	Error in the 2020 Election
*Dr. Oz (R)*	*48%*
*John Fetterman (D)*	*45.3%*

Research Co	Nov 6
*Dr. Oz (R)*	*48%*
*John Fetterman (D)*	*49%*

Insider Advantage	Nov 3	+3% in Favor of GOP
*Dr. Oz (R)*	48%
*John Fetterman (D)*	*46%*

Trafalgar (R)	Nov 1-3	+3% in Favor of GOP
*Dr. Oz (R)*	*48%*
*John Fetterman (D)*	*46%*

Average of Last 4 PA Senate Elections
*Republican*	*46.8%*
*Democrat*	*51.4%*

Follow the PA Governor Election here

Fetterman vs Oz Polls: Google Search

Last 7 Days

Dr. Oz: 50% (Gained)
John Fetterman: 50%

Last 7 Days

Dr Oz: -33.7%(Deteriorating)
Fetterman: -22%(Improving)

Oz vs Fetterman Polls: Latest News

Pennsylvania Senate Race Polls: Demographics

As per the latest 2020 Census Figures

White American: 73.5%
Black American: 10.5%
Hispanic American: 8.1%
Asian American: 3.9%
Multi-racial: 3.9%
Others: 0.5%

Pennsylvania continues to grow at a steady rate till the next census. Pennsylvania’s Hispanic Population grew around 82.6% from 2000 to 2010 which is one of the largest increases in any state. This happened due to immigration from Puerto Rico, South America, Mexico, and the Dominican Republic and there is also a 60% Asian population located here. The Black and African American community has grown by 13%.

Currently in Pennsylvania, the majority of the population is represented by White Americans. They make up around 73.5% of the total population of Pennsylvania. Black Americans make up around 11% of the total population of Pennsylvania. Other races make up 15% of the population.